Admittedly, I'm not a big fan of any DFS slate that has less than six games on the docket, but I will say that this is one of the more intriguing slates under six. Of the five games scheduled tonight, we have a nice mix of watchability in San Antonio at Golden State, mystery in Chicago at Miami, and fantasy attractiveness in both Phoenix at Houston and Minnesota at Sacramento.
As for insights Vegas can provide us with, I alluded above to the two games that are most attractive, based on the high projected scoring totals for the Phoenix - Houston game (214) and Minnesota - Sacramento game (220). Two of the games don't currently have a total listed and the final game, Toronto at Atlanta, has an over of just 200. Perhaps that game and the Chicago at Miami one can provide us with some sleepers and value plays, as folks may shy away from those games thanks to mystery or low projected totals.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 3/2/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players, to mid-priced options, and value plays on FanDuel.
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FanDuel DFS Guards
Goran Dragic (vs CHI, $6,700)
Dragic is my favorite tournament point guard tonight for a few reasons. For one, he has a nice matchup with a Bulls squad that still can't find their identity defensively and allow the second most points to opposing point guards of any team in play tonight. I also love his price, as it's in the range where he's considered a bargain. And finally, due to the fact Miami operates at a slower pace, I think this game could go overlooked and will keep ownership rates of any Heat players at a low, desirable number for tournament games.
Ricky Rubio (at SAC, $6,700)
Unfortunately I don't think Rubio has a great shot at going overlooked since the game he's playing in has such a high projected score, but with Steph Curry playing and Kyle Lowry available for just $1,200 more on a short slate, Rubio's ownership percentages shouldn't be absurdly high. That, and his last few games have been duds from a fantasy perspective. He does have an incredible matchup, though, and not just because of the high projection, seeing as his best fantasy nights come when he gets others involved at a high rate and is able to pick pockets. He should have plenty of opportunity to do both against the Kings, who struggle to keep possession but operate at a very fast pace.
Devin Booker (at HOU, $6,900)
When I made my initial picks for tonight's slate, I struggled not to load up on guys from the Phoenix - Houston matchup. Not only does it have a high projected total, there's also the fact that Houston's defense is null and void essentially. I finally settled on just two - Devin and Alex Len (who I'll get to in a minute) - as they've got the best combination of favorable defensive matchups and an affordable price tags. Booker has been playing great the second half of the season, but eventually his price caught up to him and he was a fairly easy fade. Now that his price is back below 7K, he's a more favorable play. The Rockets the second most points to opposing two-guards of any team playing this evening.
Also Consider: Zach LaVine (at SAC, $5,400)
Punt Play: Kyle Korver (vs TOR, $3,600)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
Kawhi Leonard (at GSW, $8,600)
Of all the forwards on the board tonight, my confidence is highest in Kawhi to exceed his price implied total. He certainly doesn't qualify as a bargain at this price, but outside of that, my prediction algorithms love everything about him on Thursday, from matchup, to opponent +/-, floor and ceiling. If Draymond Green draws a defensive matchup on Leonard, he wont get easy looks, but he's able to fill up the stat sheet in so many different ways that I wouldn't worry too much about assignments. The fact that Golden State operates at a fast pace means more opportunity for blocks, steals and rebounds for Leonard.
Nikola Mirotic (at MIA, $5,300)
While I'm intrigued by his recent production, I can't suggest Mirotic is a safe cash game play tonight. Not with the defensive stalwarts that the Heat run with, at least. That said, I think at this price and due to the fact he could likely be had at a low ownership percentage, I will have a few shares in tournament play. Mirotic has exceeded value in six of his last 10 games by an average of more than six points a night.
Alex Len (at HOU, $5,700)
As I mentioned earlier, I'm limiting my exposure to this game. I know it's one of the most attractive games, but on such a small slate, I need to find ways to have a unique lineup. That's not to say you shouldn't have any exposure. It's more so a warning to choose wisely. I like Len not only for his price, but the matchup he draws. The Rockets currently allow an average +/- to opposing power forwards of more than 4.5 points a night. Len doesn't run the floor exceptionally well, but the Rockets speed of play should hand the Suns more offensive possessions, with Len being a benefactor.
Also Consider: Justise Winslow (vs CHI, $3,800)
Value Play: Patrick Patterson (at ATL, $4,000)
FanDuel DFS Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns (at SAC, $8,900)
I'm a huge fan of KAT's game - I was in college, too - but he's grown on me this season even more than I could have imagined, all while taking his game to a higher level each night. What makes him such a valuable fantasy commodity, aside from his offensive game being so well-rounded, is that he can fill up the stat sheet and impact the game positively even when the offense isn't moving through him. On nights where he shoots a poor percentage, he often times finds a way to his and even exceed value. I'm not going to say a matchup with DeMarcus Cousins is a great one, but the Kings do give up quite a few points above the average to opposing centers, and with the pace this game should move, I think KAT will see plenty of offensive opportunities - regardless of who is guarding him. Despite exceeding value in six of his last 10 by more than five points a night, his salary has climbed just $100 in that time stretch.
Also Consider: Paul Gasol (at MIA, $8,400) and Tyson Chandler (at HOU, $5,400)
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