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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! I had to step away from my usual coverage of NBA bets on Saturday to help out my RotoBaller MLB brethren with some coverage of opening weekend, so I am back on a Monday instead of Tuesday this week.
To recap Thursday's picks, it was more of the same as my ATS pick hit with Atlanta winning (in OT) against the Spurs, however, the run of my bad luck on props continued as Westbrook came up one rebound shy of his number and Washington got handled by Detroit, which also killed my parlay. I'm still undefeated ATS, but need to get back on track with the other bets.
If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, April 5th, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS, or better yet - join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Record 8-12
- Against the Spread 5-0
- Over/Under 1-4
- Teasers/Parlays 1-4
- Player Props 1-4
Against the Spread
Dallas Mavericks (+5.5) @ Utah Jazz
The Jazz and Mavericks will meet tonight for the third time this season, with Utah having won both of their first two meetings back in January in consecutive games, 116-102 and 120-101. The Jazz own the best record in the NBA and are winners of nine straight games. They should be ready to go here with all their main guys healthy and rested. They've been able to give Mike Conley some games off during the season without missing a beat thanks to the depth of their bench, and he will be back in the lineup tonight after getting Saturday off.
Utah is 31-18 against the spread this season, good for second-best in the league behind Phoenix. They also own the best overall net rating in the NBA at +9.8. The Mavs are a good team, but they are outclassed here. Toss in that Porzingis' status is unclear for tonight, and I want to hit this number for Utah now as I think the spread could move even further in their favor today.
The Pick: Utah -5.5
Over/Under
New York Knicks (+6) @ Brooklyn Nets (217.5 total)
This game is neck and neck with the under in the Utah-Dallas game as far as the best-rated bet in my model. I have been saying this for the last month and a half, but I'll say it again - Knicks games are where offense goes to die. New York has the fourth-best defensive rating in the league this season and plays a slow, controlled style of basketball this season under Coach Thibs.
Under normal circumstances, I'd be more worried about Brooklyn pacing the Knicks up here and this game going over. But it appears that Kevin Durant is likely to miss this game and James Harden is very questionable to return, too. That leaves Kyrie Irving and LaMarcus Aldridge left to do the heavy lifting for this Brooklyn offense. In Harden's 2-game recent absence, the Nets offense has struggled to only 109 points per game.
This game has one of the slowest pace projections based on recent 10-day samples I have seen since I started tracking them earlier this year. I have it pegged for around 93-94 possessions tonight, which is a full 7-8 possessions under the league average. I think the Nets likely pull out a close one here, but this game goes under as the Knicks' solid defense and Nets' struggling offense keep the scoring low.
The Pick: Under 217.5 points (good down to 215.5)
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.
We are going to hit a teaser today, dammit! I have the Dallas-Utah game going five points under in addition to the New York-Brooklyn game. My top-rated over today is in the Toronto-Washington game, which features our highest pace projection and two teams that have little left to play for this year and have been trending down on defense. I am teasing as much as possible today to give some wiggle room with a full 7-point sweetheart teaser on DK (I need this win!).
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. Today I am rolling with a hot hand situation as Jakob Poeltl has been on a tear for the Spurs and finally seeing heavy minutes for them in the second half of the season. The departure of LaMarcus Aldridge has opened up big minutes for Poeltl and he's made the most of it. Over his last four games, he's averaging 14 points and 12 boards and has played 39 and 43 minutes in their two most recent games.
The rebounds are what I am eyeing here. He'll face a Cavs team that is without their starting center Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. and has been forced to play guys like Isaiah Hartenstein and Dean Wade big minutes inside. Kevin Love is back but has been playing limited minutes. The Cavs have given up the most rebounds per game to opposing centers over the last week, allowing nearly 19 boards. I'll take the over on Poeltl's rebound prop here and I found it on DraftKings at plus odds.
The Pick: Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds +100
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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