RADIO
The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Richmond on Saturday for some afternoon racing on the three-quarters-mile track. Last weekend, the track took to COTA in Austin with Cup regular Kyle Larson winning. Austin Hill was the top finisher among Xfinity regulars in second place.
Hill currently sits at the top of the Xfinity Series standings with an average finish of 2.4. He has a top-five result in all five races this year. Chandler Smith is right behind him though, sitting nine points out of the lead. Cole Custer, Jesse Love, and Riley Herbst round out the top five.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the NASCAR Xfinity Series ToyotaCare 250 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series, including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station. This slate locks on 3/30/24 at 1:43 p.m. EDT.
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Richmond Race Trends
Chandler Smith won this race last year, leading 83 laps. It was a race with a lot of drivers leading for stretches, as six drivers led double-digit laps. In 2022, though, we saw Ty Gibbs and John Hunter Nemechek combine to lead all but one lap. The year before though, we again saw parity with six drivers leading double-digit laps. What this suggests to me is that we have more options this week when it comes to drivers who can pace the field, which means we might want to build a lineup with more top options than usual to capture that range.
Place differential is also important. Last year, three drivers finished in the top 10 after starting 20th or worse. Expand that to 15th or worse and it becomes half of the top 10. However, the place differential guys weren't backmarkers who took advantage of wrecks—they were pretty good cars. When looking at place differential this week, you don't want to be too risky.
Drivers Who Could Dominate
Chandler Smith ($10,800) has a shot to take the points lead from Austin Hill this weekend, as this isn't Hill's best track. Meanwhile, Smith won here last year, leading 83 laps in a Kaulig car. This JGR car should be even better. Smith rolls off fourth.
Chandler Smith picks up the first win of his Xfinity Series career at Richmond.https://t.co/j50rz88Lmc
— Jayski (@jayski) April 1, 2023
Justin Allgaier ($11,000) starts fifth and is a multiple-time winner at Richmond, taking both races here in 2020. He hasn't been as good here the last two seasons with finishes of 14th and 13th, but before that, he had five consecutive top fives at the track.
Cole Custer ($10,500) should be one of the favorites as he fires off from third. If you watched qualifying, you heard the broadcast team hype Custer up as the guy who might break Ford's short-track losing streak. He won here in 2019, leading 122 laps in the process. Last year, he was fifth in this race.
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Top Mid-Tier Plays
Bubba Pollard ($8,000) had a great practice, topping the leaderboards as far as one-lap speed went. Then, he got squirrely in qualifying and will start 37th for his Xfinity Series debut. Have to think that he can gain a ton of spots on Saturday afternoon.
For those, who thought Bubba Pollard would take a bit to get acclimated to the #NASCAR Xfinity Series car, he has the No. 88 @JRMotorsports machine at the top of the speed charts 10 minutes into the session. Josh Williams is P2.
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) March 30, 2024
Taylor Gray ($8,500) feels a little too expensive for someone making his first Xfinity Series start, but he starts 27th in a Joe Gibbs Racing car, so you want to have some exposure here for place differential purposes. He has two Truck Series starts here with a top finish of sixth in 2022.
Corey Heim ($7,800) sat at the top of the qualifying chart for a while on Saturday morning. While he didn't stay there and fell a bit down to sixth, he showed that he can turn some good laps in this car. This has a good shot to be the best Xfinity Series race of Heim's career.
Parker Retzlaff ($7,300) turned a shockingly fast first lap in qualifying to take the top spot, then bettered it on the second lap. There's obviously some risk to a driver like Retzlaff because he doesn't have the experience of other guys, but when you have a driver priced at $7,300 who is on the pole at a track like this where a front-row starting spot can be huge.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Deep Sleepers
Jeb Burton ($6,500) starts 21st. His average Richmond finish is 14.6 and he has four finishes in a row of 12th or better at the track. Really great value here—I'd go as far as saying that Burton might be my favorite play of the race outside of the guys I'm picking to contend for the win.
Josh Williams ($6,600) had another poor qualifying run and starts 26th. It's been a rough first season with Kaulig for Williams, whose average start is 21.0 and average finish is 30.0. But a Kaulig car won this race last year and at some point, Williams has to see his bad luck turn around, right? He's not a top-tier driver, but he had an average finish of 23.3 last year in significantly worse equipment. He should be able to start getting top 15s soon. He was fast in practice, for what it's worth.
For those, who thought Bubba Pollard would take a bit to get acclimated to the #NASCAR Xfinity Series car, he has the No. 88 @JRMotorsports machine at the top of the speed charts 10 minutes into the session. Josh Williams is P2.
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) March 30, 2024
Kyle Weatherman ($5,700) had a lot of speed in practice and a solid effort in qualifying puts him 23rd on the grid. Maybe I'd like him to be a little deeper for place differential reasons, but Weatherman's a good driver. On average, he finishes about eight spots higher than he's qualified in his five starts here. He's been +10 or better in place differential in three of those five races.
Kyle Sieg ($5,500) could be in play if you want to take a big risk. He starts 34th and finished 20th here last year, but he's averaging just 14.4 DFS points per race this season. However, he has two top-25s, so maybe all we needed for fantasy purposes was a bad qualifying run since he hasn't started this low all season.
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