RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
Get access to the Research Station with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount. We also have Research Stations for the Xfinity and Cup Series.
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Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Kyle Larson will be primed to push for another win after a flat tire robbed him of his first Pocono win on Saturday. It is obvious that Larson is a must-start in every event, and the Vegas odds have him at 31 percent implied odds to win, far ahead of any other driver. While it’s no surprise that Larson is the clear favorite again, the point here is that you may think about fading him because he will likely be heavily rostered. Avoid that temptation, as the key to cashing out is how you build around Larson, not how you build without him. When a Cup driver is on a hot streak, you should ride with him in the greater majority of your multiple lineups.
-The Research Station gives Tyler Reddick a 40 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10 according to the implied odds, which is the best of any driver below $8300 on DraftKings. He is projected to finish 11th, and keep in mind those projections allow for some variance, so he can easily finish around his starting position after a respectable run on Saturday at Pocono.
Projections
-William Byron is projected to score 56.75 points, which is the third most of any driver overall. He starts 18th and is projected to finish sixth, and he placed third on Saturday. He has finished in the Top 4 in three of his last four races at flat/intermediate tracks. Byron has finished inside the Top 10 in five of his past six Pocono starts. He also has a Driver Rating of 96.5 in his recent Pocono starts, with an average finish of 7.4.
-There are some interesting bargain plays that start deeper in the field on Sunday. Ross Chastain stands out the most, as he is projected to score 46.70 points. Austin Dillon is projected to score 34.90, and there are three drivers under $6000 projected to score 30-plus points (Corey LaJoie, Erik Jones, Ryan Newman). It's a price range we usually do not recommend diving into, but there are some appealing Place Differential plays further down the ladder this time.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Kyle Busch has 27.0 Fantasy Points Gained vs. similar drivers in recent Pocono starts, the most in the field. He finished second on Saturday. Busch has 14 percent implied odds to win the race on Sunday, second only to Larson.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar positions. On Sunday, the category is telling us to avoid Chase Elliott. He has a mark of -9.2 in this category in recent Cup events at Pocono Raceway. When you consider he is the fifth highest priced driver overall, this Research Station stat indicates your DFS NASCAR dollars are better spent elsewhere. Elliott also has a number of -4.6 in Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent Pocono starts.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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