NASCAR Research Station: DraftKings, FanDuel DFS Lineup Picks - Hollywood Casino 400

The NASCAR Playoffs move on as we head to Kansas Speedway.

Who'll get off to a strong start in the Round of 8 and lock their way into the finale at Phoenix? Who'll get caught up in an early accident and find themselves in a huge hole?

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions: @juscarts.

NASCAR DFS Research for Hollywood Casino 400

If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.

Top Fantasy Values At Kansas

Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.

One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.

Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:

(the final two columns are projected points and projected FP/$)

Some observations here:

• Matt Kenseth in particular is a great value. Yes, I know that Kenseth has struggled this season in the 42 car, but as his career in the Cup Series appears to once again draw to a close, we've got to remember that he's still a solid race car driver. And he starts 30th in this race, while his track record on 1.5 mile tracks this year has a little up-and-down, it seems to be trending up, as he's had top 20s at the last three of them. Good place differential upside.
• John Hunter Nemechek is another driver in this tier with place differential upside, which is why he's at 5.74 projected FP/$. He starts 32nd and has finished 22nd or better in the last three races at these cookie cutters.
• Two other drivers in this tier with projected FP/$ of five or better: Ryan Newman and Michael McDowell. McDowell might be the cheapest viable play on DraftKings.
• Which reminds me: the last couple weeks at Talladega and the Roval, we saw an expanded pool of viable plays. But guys like James Davison and Quin Houff and ll the guys in between in price are back to being backmarkers. Maybe there's some chaos upside with Josh Bilicki, just because that 7 car seems slightly better than the other cars back there, but overall I think you want to avoid this entire group.
• Speaking of avoid, Ryan Preece starting 19th seems like an instant fade. Yes, I know he had some good moments last week and that might make you higher on him than usual, but that was the Roval. This isn't.

Kansas Driver Ratings

NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.

Here are the Kansas ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:

Observations:

• Surprise, surprise! Kevin Harvick is good here! Honestly, every DFS article about the Cup Series should just contain a one-sentence disclaimer that says "Kevin Harvick is good here and that's all we're saying about him."
• None of these drivers have necessarily struggled at Kansas, with all of them posting a recent and long term rating here in the 90s. There's not an obvious fade in this top group of drivers, unless you wan to fade Hamlin a little bit since he's been the worst of this group. But even then, his average finish here recently is 9.3, so how fade-y should we really be?
• Looking deeper in the pricing, Jimmie Johnson and Erik Jones have long term ratings of at least 90 here. In particular, Jones feels like a strong play. He starts 11th, so there's some solid place differential upside for him.
• Cole Custer has an 80.9 rating here, though that's a one-race sample, which was him finishing seventh here in the first race. Starting 13th is a little scary for the rookie because of his downside, but think this play could really pay off.

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Other Interesting Notes!

Here are some other things I found via the Research Station that I think y'all should know:

• Ryan Blaney has an average finish of 7.2 on 1.5 mile tracks this season.
• Kurt Busch has an average finish of 9.3 on them.
• Tyler Reddick is at 10.8 this year on these type tracks. He starts 15th. Good mid-range play!
• In the first Kansas race, Aric Almirola had an average running position of eighth. John Hunter Nemechek had an average running position of 18th. Both guys have value this week.
• Brad Keselowski performs six percent worse on intermediate tracks vs. his average.
• Alex Bowman performs eight percent better.
• Austin Dillon performs 10 percent better!
• The Research Station does not like Matt DiBenedetto on intermediate tracks, but that ignores that he's run worse equipment in his past campaigns. Don't judge him too harshly on that.

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