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The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-It is no surprise that Chase Elliott has the highest implied odds to win at 24 percent, as he is shooting for his third consecutive victory at Watkins Glen International. He has won six of the last seven NASCAR Cup series events on road courses and is on the verge of tying Hall of Famer Tony Stewart for second place on the all-time road course leaders list. Elliott can score his eighth road course win this week, which would put him one behind all-time leader and legendary superstar Jeff Gordon. Elliott and Kyle Busch, who is fourth in implied odds to win at eight percent, are tied for the most Watkins Glen wins among active drivers with two.
-Christopher Bell is making his Cup series debut at Watkins Glen this week, yet he is listed at 51 percent odds to finish in the Top 10 and 28 to finish in the Top 5, the best in both departments for any driver below $9400. Bell is a strong road course selection for his price. He won at the Daytona road course and finished second at Road America this season. In two Xfinity Series starts at Watkins Glen, Bell has finished second and ninth. He has finished in the Top 5 in 33 percent of his Cup starts on road courses.
Projections
-Kyle Busch is projected to score 55.95 points this week, the second-most after Elliott. He is a massive Place Differential play, as Busch starts 20th. He is projected to finish sixth, and keep in mind that the projections allow for some variance, so Busch could certainly finish in the Top 5, and he can definitely contend for his third Watkins Glen win. In four of his last five Watkins Glen starts, Busch has finished in the Top 7, with two in the Top 3. He has finished third and fifth in his last two road course events.
-Chase Briscoe is projected to score 42.00 points, the most by any driver below $10,000, and the price tag is very friendly at $8300. Briscoe will start 27th and is projected to finish 14th, so he is obviously a good Place Differential option. He finished sixth at Road America and Circuit of the Americas this season. This is also his Cup debut at Watkins Glen, yet we can note he started and finished sixth in his one Xfinity Series race at the site. He has two wins and seven Top 10s in 10 road course starts in the Xfinity Series.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Matt DiBenedetto, priced t $7600, has 27.1 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent Watkins Glen starts. That is an outstanding number in the category for a value selection. DiBenedetto starts 14th, and is projected to finish 13th, yet he can certainly make a push to place in the Top 10. He finished sixth in his most recent Watkins Glen start, and was 10th at Road America in the most recent Cup race on a road course. DiBenedetto has some positive momentum coming into this race at Watkins Glen, as he has finished 11th, ninth and 10th in his last three starts of 2021.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar positions. This week, the category is telling us to fade William Byron, He has a negative number of -30.1 in his two starts at Watkins Glen. Those numbers stand out in a very bad way among the rest of the field. Byron has a negative driver rating number of -18.7 on road courses this season.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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