RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
Get access to the Research Station with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount. We also have Research Stations for the Xfinity and Cup Series.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!This week, we focus on drivers that can survive and/or make late moves for a good finish at a very unpredictable and drama-filled site, Talladega Superspeedway. Many of these points of analysis can really help you get an edge, as we have uncovered some unique statistical finds.
DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano have the best odds and implied odds to win the Geico 500. Hamlin has 13 percent implied odds to win, and Logano has 10 percent implied odds to take the checkered flag. Both of these drivers start on the front row, and staying at the front of the pack can help each one of them avoid some of the inevitable and significant crashes at certain points of a Talladega event. Survival is a key and a goal in Talladega races, and leading laps can increase chances of not getting caught up in wrecks. Logano has finished 94 percent of his scheduled laps, which leads all drivers. You can view the superspeedway percentage of laps finished category for all drivers by scrolling to the right from the odds section.
-Ryan Newman has a 78 percent chance of finishing on the lead lap. At first glance, that may not seem like a significant statistic, but when you consider he starts 28th, that percentage means he is a good play for Talladega. Finishing at all at this site is very often an accomplishment itself, and Newman is projected to place 14th, which signals that not only does he have a pretty good shot of finishing the race, he will also give you a good amount of Place Differential points. Also keep in mind the projected finishes allow for variance, so he could conceivably finish higher than 14th. Newman has finished in the Top in three of his past five Talladega starts. Experienced drivers who start near the back of the pack and also avoid wrecks ahead of them to strategically vie for a good finish are strong starting options. Newman fits the bill perfectly in those regards this week. Newman has finished in the Top 10 62 percent of the time on super speedways.
Superspeedway results
-This is an important category for a Talladega event when trying to pinpoint value drivers. Again, survival odds are what we are looking for here. Chris Buescher stands out among the value priced drivers, as he has finished in the Top 10 in 46 percent of his starts on superspeedways. He has finished in sixth place in each of his past two Talladega starts. Buescher starts 21st, and there is a good chance he not only lasts throughout the event, but delivers a quality finish. Any driver can wreck at any time, but Buescher has finished 92 percent of his scheduled laps on super speedways. It certainly appears he has similar type of skills as Newman, to lay back and try to steer clear of disaster with a long range goal of finishing well.
-Ryan Preece has three starts at Talladega in the last two seasons, but he has fared respectably at the site, with finishes of 10th, 15th and 18th. He also had a third place showing a few years prior to that trio of Talladega starts. Preece starts 29th and is projected to place 17th. Preece has finished in the Top 10 in 44 percent of his superspeedway starts, a number that stands out among others in his price range, much like Buescher. He is another driver who fits the description of the type we want to target, one who will start deeper in the field and possibly lay back while mayhem plays out in front of him a few times.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-This stat can easily help us identify outliers in terms of pure performances, good or bad. The category is signaling to us that we should be avoiding two bigger name drivers this week. Martin Truex has a -25.4 mark in recent Talladega events. He has not finished in the Top 20 in his last six starts at the site. Kevin Harvick has a -14.5 mark in this category in recent Talladega races. He has not finished in the Top 15 in his last five Talladega starts. There is a lot of unpredictability at Talladega, but you should at least try to attempt to avoid using the drivers who have been less likely to perform to their best levels at the site in recent seasons.
Average Position vs. Actual Finish
At Talladega, we have stressed it is a good approach to target drivers that make their most significant moves later in a race. This category helps us identify those types at various pricing levels. It compares a driver’s Average Running Positions to his actual finishes. Brad Keselowski has a 12.2 mark in this category. Keselowski starts 10th but could navigate his way clear of wrecks and push for a win late in the race. Cole Custer has a 10.0 mark in this category. He starts 27th and is yet another driver who starts deep in the field and could wait to make a late move for a quality finish. Custer has not delivered a strong final showing yet at Talladega, but this statistic indicates that his finishing positions have been misleading. This category is highly revealing for this track, as Custer’s actual average finish at Talladega is 26th, but his ARP is 16th, which is 14th best among all drivers at Talladega since 2019. Keselowski has an average finish of 18.8, and an ARP of 8.9, which is second best.
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