RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays we have identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but much of what we recommend here also can be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Denny Hamlin starts on the pole and has the best odds (6) and Implied Odds (17%) to win the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He won this race last season and has also been best at the site in Lead Lap Averages (60.0), another category you can find by scrolling to the right. The price on DraftKings is actually friendly at $9600 when you consider his strong history at Homestead (Driver Rating of 118.1 is the best in the field) and starting position. He should anchor several of your lineups.
-Kevin Harvick has the second best odds (6.5) and Implied Odds (15%) to win this week. He is projected to finish near his starting position of fourth, and according to Projections categories, he will be seven percent less rostered than Hamlin. Harvick has not looked dominant yet this season, but the odds here indicate that he could be a prime pivot off Hamlin in other lineup configurations as you roll out multiple lineups.
-Kyle Larson has a 31% chance of finishing in the Top 3, which means he should be a good Place Differential play from a starting position of 17th. The Projections also have him finishing seventh, which takes into account a variation of possible results. When you combine the Vegas odds with the Projections, Larson has a very good chance of finishing between third and seventh. This could be the week where he truly starts to show his significant potential in a Hendrick Motorsports ride, and you should be expecting the upside to challenge for that Top 3 spot.
-Last week’s winner, Christopher Bell, starts in third, which may drive many people away from using him in their lineups. Yet he has 49% Implied Odds to finish in the Top 10 and is only priced at $7600. Bell finished eighth at Homestead-Miami last season. You can combine Bell with some other strong Place Differential options in some of your lineups and balance out the few PD points you may lose and still benefit from a good finish from Bell. He does have Implied Odds of 13% to finish in the Top 3, which is far better than any other value range selection.
Projections
The Fantasy Point projections take into account that most drivers have a wide range of outcomes, especially top drivers that can rack up lead and fast laps. If you copy the sheet to your drive you can change any of the projections to your liking and it will auto-calculate fantasy points.
-At a price of $8,500, Tyler Reddick has the best Fantasy Points value per $1,000 Salary at 7.92. The massive PD upside is evident at his starting position of 35th. He is projected to score the most Fantasy Points on Sunday (67.35). Reddick is projected to finish 10th but that takes into account various potential outcomes in that range, and if it turns out to be conservative, he still finishes 25 spots ahead of where he started. Reddick may be widely rostered on Sunday, yet you should employ him in many lineups and differentiate how you work around him.
-Matt DiBenedetto (starts 37th) and William Byron are both obviously superb PD picks, and should both be utilized in multiple lineups. If you have a tough choice between the two, or want to use more frequently, though, Byron seems to be the slightly better pick even though DiBenedetto starts lower and is 300 dollars cheaper. Byron is projected to score 51.80 Fantasy Points to DiBenedetto’s 50.90. That could make a difference in where you finish in a tournament. Byron is projected to finish 12th, and DiBenedetto 15th. Both are great choices in their price range (Byron $9,100, DiBenedetto), though, only projected to be outscored by Reddick in their pricing tier. All are projected to outscore Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski.
DraftKings Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-This is a category that confirms Larson and Reddick as prime plays. Larson has gained 26.3 FPs vs. similar drivers at Homestead. Reddick is the tremendous outlier above all, though, at a 58.6 clip. He also had the most FPs vs. similar drivers at 1.5 mile tracks last year (15.6).
-Martin Truex Jr. had 13.3 FPs Gained vs. Similar Drivers on 1.5 mile tracks last season and should be another top selection for several lineups. Kurt Busch had 10.0 FPs Gained vs. Similar Drivers last season on intermediates and cannot be overlooked, either. Austin Dillon had 12.8 gained and is another consideration. Daniel Suarez had 5.6 gained, which is not bad for a low tier value driver who has shown more promise so far this season.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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