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The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays we have identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here also can be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are tied for the best odds and implied odds to win at Las Vegas. So you should be rolling out multiple lineups with heavy shares of both as your roster anchors. In any cases where you have to make a tight decision between the two drivers, you should lean to Harvick since he starts on the pole. Harvick is by far the best driver in the Lead Laps Per 267 Laps category.
-After Harvick and Truex, Brad Keselowski is tied for the best odds and implied odds to win at Vegas. He starts 10th, so if Keselowski wins or finishes in the Top 3, he gets you a decent amount of Place Differential points along with the high finish. We have only seen one Top 5 finish from Keselowski so far this season, as the big-name drivers have yet to establish their usual dominance. But the Vegas Odds indicate you should expect the best drivers to naturally regain their rightful places at the top of the pack very soon.
-William Byron and Kurt Busch are tied with 17 percent implied odds and overall odds to finish in the Top 3. Both are priced slightly above $8000 and are very good complements to your top drivers based on these odds. Byron does start on the front row, so there is obviously a bigger risk of him losing Place Differential points. That may also mean he is less rostered and can still be a difference-maker for you in tournaments. You can offset any potential PD losses by combining Byron with a high PD candidate such as Matt DiBenedetto, and still benefit from a possible Top 3 Byron showing or close to it.
-Cole Custer has 29 percent implied odds of finishing in the Top 10. These odds obviously makes him one of the better bargain plays of the week at $6500. Custer starts 20th, so a Top 10 showing would be a very nice return on PD and overall finish for the price tag. Bubba Wallace has identical implied odds for $7000 and a bit more PD upside starting from 23rd. Wallace finished sixth at Las Vegas last season.
Driver Rating
-This is a very important Loop Data stat, which reflects how a driver truly performs at a given track, omitting racing “deals” such as wrecks, pit road mishaps etc. Joey Logano has the second best DR at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (117.1). Logano has won two of the past three races at LVMS. He is tied with Keselowski for third in implied and overall odds to win. Logano starts in 15th and should be a prime play this week, as he has the promise to deliver a strong finish while providing a good PD return.
-Alex Bowman had a DR of 100.1 at 1.5 mile tracks last season, which puts him just outside the Top 5 in the category. He has finished ninth or better in his last five races at the track type. Bowman starts ninth, and the Research Station projects him to finish eighth, with variance allowed for a better possible finish. Bowman is a solid choice at $8800. If you are looking for a driver to provide balance and possibly some safety in where he may finish, he should be a target. Bowman can help your lineup for the price, and it certainly seems like he won’t hurt your outlook.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-This is an ideal category for identifying drivers who may stand out above others in any price ranges, and can be very helpful to pinpoint bargain plays. DiBenedetto has gained 9.8 points vs. similar drivers at Las Vegas. He is a prime PD play starting from 30th. He should be widely rostered this week but you can differentiate with other drivers around him in several lineups. Don’t fade a certain driver because of perceived high usage by others. There are several other spots in your lineup to make your lineups unique.
-Over the past two seasons, Tyler Reddick has really set himself apart from other similar drivers at 1.5 mile tracks. Last season, he had 17.1 FPs Gained vs. Similar Drivers on the track type, and had 23.8 more than the rest of the field in 2019. Reddick starts in 11th, so there may be some hesitation to roster him by others because he lacks perceived upside. Reddick is coming off a second place finish at Homestead, another 1.5 miler, and has pretty good implied odds to finish in the Top 10 (33 percent). Reddick is a nice bet to finish around his starting position and that makes him a solid play for $7900.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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