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The NASCAR playoffs begin on Sunday with the Southern 500. 16 drivers will begin the competition for the title, while the rest of the field battles for strong finishes and bragging rights and all of those things. The pressure is ramping up.
There's also just 10 races left in the Cup Series season, y'all! And after a hectic summer of playing catch up due to COVID-19, we're back on schedule, with one race per week in the playoffs on the original playoff schedule.
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Cook Out Southern 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Darlington
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings, we see a few notable things, especially among some of the lower-priced drivers:
Tyler Reddick -- who came close to pulling off the surprise win and making the playoffs last week -- is the best value here, with a 6.89 projected FP/$. This 8 car has been running really well, and starting 24th gives Reddick some solid place differential upside.
On the flip side of that, Michael McDowell and Daniel Suarez are the drivers to avoid in this range, with both having a projected FP/$ under four. For McDowell, a top-20 starting spot is the big issue, as were two mediocre runs here earlier in the year. For Suarez, the 28th place start is better for upside, but a 25th and 27th pace finish here earlier this year don't suggest that he's headed for a strong race.
Ryan Newman has the lowest starting spot of any driver who could conceivably get a top 15 finish. And while the Research Station says the 77 is Ross Chastain, Racing Reference says it's Reed Sorenson. If that's true, don't play the 77 car!
Darlington Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Darlington ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
Of the drivers priced at $10k or above, the one who stands out the most is, of course, Kevin Harvick. Harvick is so good. He was good here this year. He was good here every year. Harvick's pretty much always going to be the best option to anchor your team.
The other thing that stands out, though, is that none of these drivers from Jones up have a bad long term rating here. Sure, the Busch brothers are below a 90 rating in this year's Darlington races, but Joey Logano's 94.5 rating is the lowest long term one of this group. After Harvick, there's no one who really stands out in a positive or negative way until we get to Almirola and Blaney. So, something to keep in mind there is that there seems to be a pretty big performance gap at Darlington below Erik Jones, but not much separation from Jones on up.
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Track Type
Darlington is categorized as an intermediate steep track, but it's not really like most intermediate steep tracks, and it doesn't correlate at 90 percent or better to any track, so it's really tough to use any of the track type and track correlation data this week to tell us much.
It does have some crossover with Dover, though, so let's see if the two Dover races we just had can help inform us of what might happen in this race.
In the first Dover race, Denny Hamlin won, leading 115 laps while second place Martin Truex Jr. led 88. It was a very Joe Gibbs race, with the top three finishers belonging to the team.
In the second Dover race, Kevin Harvick won, leading 223 laps. Truex was second, followed by three Rick Hendrick cars that used some late strategy to get those top fives.
In both races, we saw solid runs by Richard Childress Racing's Austin Dillon, though I worry Dillon starts too high in this week's race for my comfort.
Cole Custer ran well in both. He starts 14th and should be able to run around there all day.
Michael McDowell struggled in both Dover races, further suggesting that you do not want to play Michael McDowell on Sunday. Don't do it!
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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