RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Kyle Larson has the best projected odds and implied odds (18 percent) to win the prestigious Coca-Cola 600. Many of his past Charlotte Motor Speedway stats don’t back up such a finish, but all of his previous runs were in his pre-Hendrick Motorsports days. Larson, who starts on the pole and is projected to lead the most laps (75) this week, has taken his performances to new levels in his return to action this season with an elite team. He has finished in the Top 4 in three of his last four starts on 1.5 mile tracks, as indicated in the category on recent finishes at those sites.
- Tyler Reddick has a 51 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, which are the best implied odds of any driver below $8500 on DraftKings. He starts 15th and is projected to finish 11th, which would be a very good finish for the price of $8200. Reddick has an Average Finish of 11.0 in two starts at Charlotte. He has also won an Xfinity Race at the site. His Average Running Position at CMS is 11.5. While his sample size at Charlotte may seem small, consider that Reddick has finishes of second and seventh in his past four starts on 1.5 mile tracks this season. The Percentage of Laps in the Top 15 category shows how steady Reddick has been at Charlotte so far, as he has run 89 percent of his laps in the range.
Practice 1
-It’s a rather rare occurrence when we get practice results to review this season, as Charlotte is only one of two existing sites that have practice sessions this year, and all of the others happen at the new sites on the circuit. Comparing practice runs with qualifying results can sometimes help us further determine how a driver will perform this week. We can see who ran the fastest laps, which drivers were fastest overall, and break down the runs into consecutive lap averages to see who may be good on longer and shorter runs. While practices don’t always fully define how a driver may perform in an event if they did not run well, those who deliver good practice showings may have found a setup that has worked well and should be expected to build on it in the actual race.
-Austin Dillon ran the Fastest Lap and had the best Average Lap time in the Coca-Cola 600 practice session. He also qualified sixth, so he obviously performed well in all of the pre-race events. Dillon is projected to finish 11th, and keep in mind the projected finishes allow for variance, so he could place in the Top 10. Dillon may not be widely rostered, as many will believe he will cost them Place Differential points, but he has a good chance of finishing around his starting position and can provide a solid showing for a $7700 price tag on DraftKings. Dillon has two Top 10 finishes and six consecutive Top 12s on 1.5 mile tracks. He also won at CMS in 2017.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Chris Buescher leaps off the screen as a terrific value play based on this category. He has 14.0 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers, which spotlights him as a prime bargain choice at $6700 on DraftKings. Buescher starts 27th and is projected to finish 17th, so he is an apparent strong play for Place Differential potential. Even though he was not on the radar in pre-race events, Buescher has the recent history to find a better groove in the actual race on Sunday. He has finished in the Top 8 in his last two starts at 1.5 mile tracks and has placed in the Top 11 in two of his last three CMS starts.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar starting positions. This week, the category is telling us to avoid Denny Hamlin. He has the worst number in the field in this category (-20.6) in recent Charlotte events. Hamlin is attempting to become just the second driver to win the three “Crown Jewel” events of the Daytona 500, Southern 500 and Coca-Cola 600. But he starts 14th and is projected to finish seventh, and he has never won at CMS, so Hamlin is not quite worthy of being the third-highest priced driver on DK this week.
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