RADIO
The NASCAR Playoffs move on as we head to Texas Motor Speedway.
How will this second race of the Round of 8 go? Who'll clinch a spot in the finale? How much money will you win in DFS?
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions: @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Texas
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:
- Oh look, another week where a low starting position for Matt Kenseth makes him one of the best projected values in the field. The only drivers with a projected FP/$ higher than Kenseth's 5.77 this week are Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, and Erik Jones. Kenseth starts 32nd, so the place differential upside is here, but with just two top 10s in 29 races and finishes of 34th and 40th the past two races, there's plenty of risk. Still, you can probably expect a top 20 out of him, which will result in a fine day.
- Chris Buescher is on the opposite end of things. Starting 20th, his differential downside makes him one of the least interesting plays in this range. He's finished 20th or worse in five of the last seven races, though one of the other two was a ninth at Las Vegas.
- Ryan Newman launches from 25th and has solid upside. He's a good intermediate driver, even if Roush Fenway isn't always a good intermediate program.
- This is not really a week to go cheap. Anyone below Daniel Suarez at $5500 is virtually unplayable unless you want to bet on an accident-heavy race, in which case J.J. Yeley's 4.12 FP/$ stand out, even if I really don't think he reaches that value.
Texas Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Texas ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
- Two obvious fade guys if you're looking at long term results here are Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott. I'm not sure I'd actually fade either, but if I did, I'd rather it be Hamlin, as Elliott's 1.5-mile performance this year has been worse than Elliott's.
- OH LOOK ANOTHER RACE WHERE KEVIN HARVICK HAS BEEN THE BEST DRIVER IN RECENT TIMES.
- Recent Texas ratings for Hendrick cars Elliott (81.7), Jimmie Johnson (79.0), Alex Bowman (71.7) and William Byron (85.8). Maybe we, uhh, should be a little lower on Elliott this week?
- The surprisingly high recent Texas rating of the weekend: either Erik Jones at 101.2 or Aric Almirola at 108.3. Probably Almirola, who has some good value this race.
- The surprisingly low recent Texas rating of the weekend: has to be that 71.7 for Alex Bowman.
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Other Interesting Notes!
Here are some other things I found via the Research Station that I think y'all should know:
- Want to avoid chalk? We have Harvick at a projected roster percentage of 54. That's high! The only other drivers even at 30 percent are Ryan Blaney (30) and Matt Kenseth (31).
- Looking to go contrarian? Byron is only a 11 percent rostered in our projects. Starts 11th, so not terrible downside. Could be good driver to try grabbing in a couple lines.
- The last time Kevin Harvick finished outside the top 10 here: the 2014 Spring race.
- Kyle Busch has top fives in 40 percent of 1.5-mile races this season.
- Austin Dillon has top 15s in 80 percent of 1.5-mile races this season.
- John Hunter Nemechek has a top 25 in 90 percent of 1.5-mile races this season, as does Michael McDowell, if you're looking for value consistency.
- Denny Hamlin's average running position here recently: just 18.3.
- Aric Almirola's: 8.5.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR Success
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