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Analyzing the 12 drivers that made it into the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12 Playoffs and their chances of advancing from the Round of 12 to the Round of 8.
And then there were 12... with the conclusion of the night race at Bristol this past weekend, NASCAR's playoffs field got smaller, as four drivers--Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, Jr, and Harrison Burton--were all eliminated from Championship contention.
Now we start a whole new round, and it kicks off this weekend at Kansas Speedway--the same track where we got one of the most exciting finishes in the Next Gen era earlier this season.
Once again, we have a wide range of track types for this round, as we'll kick off things at Kansas (a 1.5-mile intermediate) before heading down to Talladega (an unpredictable superspeedway) before finishing the Round of 12 at the Charlotte Roval (a road course). Buckle up, folks!
How NASCAR's Playoffs Work
The NASCAR postseason is 10 races long and can be an exciting, elimination-filled spectacle to watch. The 10 races are broken down into four rounds; the Round of 16, the Round of 12, the Round of 8, and the Championship race. Each of the first three rounds contains three races each, and the Championship race is one finale.
Drivers earned playoff points during the season based on race wins, Stage wins, and the regular-season points standings. These points are carried over into each round for each driver.
For example, Kyle Larson locked in 40 playoff points during the regular season, and seven more during the Round of 16. He will start the Round of 12 with those 47 points already credited to him, and if he makes the Round of 8, he will once again start with 47 points (plus any more he earns this round).
Four drivers are eliminated after each round. If any playoff driver wins a race during the round, he is automatically locked into the next round. After that, the points standings of the rest of the drivers determine who advances and who is eliminated from contention. The driver points reset at the beginning of each round, although each driver gets their aforementioned locked-in playoff points to start each round.
Kyle Larson's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: After a dominating victory at Bristol in the Round of 16, Kyle Larson now has five wins on the year (two more than anyone else) and is tied for the most top-five finishes (11) in the series. The No. 5 Chevrolet has been the fastest car in 2024, as evidenced by Larson ranking number one in Average Running Position as well as Green Flag Speed.
How Round Two Shapes Up: As always, Larson's only real weakness in this round is the superspeedway (Talladega). He won the first race at Kansas this season and has finished first or second in four of the last six races at that track. At the Charlotte Roval, Larson won there in 2021 but hasn't been able to post a top-10 finish in any of his other four starts on the track. We all know that No. 5 Chevrolet has good speed at road courses this season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Very high. Larson has a solid 39-point cushion over the cut line to start this round of the playoffs. If he has an issue at Kansas and gets caught up in a wreck at Talladega, the No. 5 team could be on the bubble and might start getting worried, but even then, Larson can win at the Roval. It'd take a lot of bad luck for "Yung Money" to not advance to the Round of 8.
Christopher Bell's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: Christopher Bell has three wins on the year and is tied for the series lead with 11 top-five finishes. He has been quietly gaining momentum after the Olympics break, too, as the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has finished sixth or better in five of the seven races since that break.
How Round Two Shapes Up: This is a good round of races for Christopher Bell. He has finished eighth or better in five of the last six races at Kansas, and at the Charlotte Roval, Bell won the 2022 race and posted top-five finishes in both Stages there last season. Talladega is Talladega, but CBell has finished 17th or better in five of his last seven starts there.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: High. This round of races sets up very well for Christopher Bell, and he starts it off with a 24-point advantage over the cut line. It wouldn't be surprising to see the No. 20 Toyota in victory lane at either Kansas or the Charlotte Roval--or maybe even both! Bell has shown recently that he can get good finishes at superspeedways.
Tyler Reddick's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: As we get further into the playoffs, it's going to be a true test for Tyler Reddick. The 23XI Racing driver has a series-leading 19 top-10 finishes on the year, but he hasn't had a top-five finish since his win at Michigan in mid-August. In terms of Green Flag Speed, Reddick ranks eighth-fastest on the season after the first 29 races.
How Round Two Shapes Up: Reddick should be a true contender in at least two of the three races this round. He's the defending winner at Kansas, and over at the Charlotte Roval, Reddick has never finished worse than 12. In the last three races, his average finish is 5.3.
As far as Talladega goes, Reddick isn't the most prolific superspeedway racer in the garage, but if you remember back to April and who ended up in victory lane... Yep, Tyler Reddick.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Pretty high. It's a bit concerning that Tyler Reddick hasn't had a single top-five finish in the last five races, but we saw him string together seven straight top-six finishes before that, so it's not like he's incapable.
Both 23XI Toyotas under-performed at Kansas the first time around. If that happens again to start the Round of 12, Reddick may need to rely heavily on the Charlotte Roval race. The 20-point cushion he has on the cut line to start will help as well.
William Byron's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: William Byron tends to go through a midseason slump of speed and then ramp back up during the playoffs. He had a good race at Atlanta in the first round but a couple of duds at Watkins Glen and Bristol. Additionally, in six of the last eight races, Byron has finished 13th or worse and he has just one result better than ninth during that span. He still ranks fourth-fastest on the season in Green Flag Speed.
How Round Two Shapes Up: This is a good round for William Byron. At Kansas, he has posted a top-10 finish in seven of his last 10 starts there, and he hasn't finished worse than 12th at Talladega in the five Next Gen races.
At the Charlotte Roval, Byron has been a legitimate contender in almost every race, and he came away with a career-best second-place finish there last season. At intermediates this year, the No. 24 Chevrolet ranks sixth-fastest in the series, and let's not forget that Byron won the first road course race this year.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Above average. This is a good three-race span of races coming up for Byron, but he can't really afford a mistake since he only has a 14-point advantage over the cut line to start with. There's high potential here for sure, but the question remains; when is the early season speed going to come back to the No. 24 Chevrolet?
Ryan Blaney's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: Ryan Blaney has really had an up-and-down season, and the same has been true since the Olympics break. In the seven races since then, the No. 12 team has just two top-10 finishes. They were both in the Round of 16--which is typically what happens with the Team Penske Fords (they find speed in the postseason). On the year, Blaney ranks third in Green Flag Speed despite ranking just 12th-best in average finish.
How Round Two Shapes Up: All three tracks in this round are pretty good venues for Ryan Blaney. He only has one top-10 finish in his last seven Kansas starts, but Blaney has earned points in 15 of the last 20 Stages at that track, so it's more of a finishing problem.
At Talladega, he's finished first or second in three of the last four races, and he has a win to his credit at the Charlotte Roval with only one finish worse than 12th in six career starts.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Above average. It's never a good idea to bet against Team Penske Fords in the postseason, and Blaney's combined track record at the three venues in this round is one of the best. Only having an 11-point cushion on the cut line to start with isn't great, but Blaney should be in contention for Stage points in all three races this round.
Denny Hamlin's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: The No. 11 Toyota has been one of the fastest cars all season, as Hamlin ranks third in Average Running Position and second in Green Flag Speed for the year. He kind of flirted with elimination in the last round--we'll call it a middle-school flirt attempt--but the No. 11 team took care of business at Bristol.
How Round Two Shapes Up: Hamlin needs to avoid disaster at Kansas and Talladega. He's an elite racer at Kansas, with six straight top-five finishes at the track, and could easily win the first race of this round.
At Talladega, Hamlin hasn't finished worse than seventh in an October race since 2015 (eight straight races). He's not terrible at the Charlotte Roval either, with a fifth-place finish to his credit as well as four total top-15s in six career starts.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Pretty high. Hamlin only has a seven-point advantage over the cut line to start out this round thanks to the penalty from the Toyota engine issue earlier this year. However, if he just has his typical races at Kansas, Talladega, and the Charlotte Roval, we should be seeing him in the Round of 8 once again this year.
Chase Elliott's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: Nobody in the Cup Series has a better average finish than Chase Elliott (11.4) does this season, and he's accomplished that by avoiding trouble.
Chase has finished on the lead lap in 27 of the 29 races this year and has definitely shown the ability to avoid catastrophe--which is exactly what a driver needs to advance in this style of playoffs. As far as Green Flag Speed goes, the No. 9 Chevrolet ranks fifth-fastest this season.
How Round Two Shapes Up: This is a good round for Mr. Consistent. Chase Elliott always runs up front at Kansas, and over the last 12 races there, he has finished seventh or better nine times. He has also scored points in 20 of the last 24 Stages there. At Talladega, Chase hasn't finished worse than 15th in the Next Gen era, and he's a two-time winner at the Charlotte Roval.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: High. The three tracks in this round are great for Chase Elliott, so as long as he performs as he normally does at them, he should be just fine to advance into the Round of 8. Only having a six-point cushion on the cut line to start with is the reason I don't have Chase's chances of advancing at "Very High."
Joey Logano's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: The No. 22 team has struggled to find speed all season long--hence the 15th-place ranking in Green Flag Speed--but they seem to find it when they need it. It truly is a Team Penske thing. Logano won at Atlanta to get into the Round of 12, but the fact that that is his only top-five result over the last eight races is a bit concerning.
How Round Two Shapes Up: Good, as long as the No. 22 team can avoid mistakes. Logano had top-10 speed at Las Vegas earlier this year (similar to Kansas), and he has results of fifth and sixth over the last year and a half at Kansas specifically.
At Talladega, Logano always runs up front but has trouble finishing races, and at the Charlotte Roval, he has posted a top-10 finish in five of his six career starts, including a top-five result last season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Slightly above average. It's not very likely that Logano is going to contend for the win at Kansas or the Charlotte Roval, but he always tends to run up front at superspeedways. He has a four-point cushion on the cut line to start this round, and I have a feeling Logano may be hovering around that cut line for the next three races.
Austin Cindric's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: Austin Cindric has actually been halfway decent as of late. Over the last 11 races, the No. 2 Ford has come home with a top-15 finish seven times, including in all three races of the Round of 16. Still, Cindric ranks as one of the slowest remaining playoff drivers, sitting at 22nd-fastest in Green Flag Speed after 29 races.
How Round Two Shapes Up: Better than it seems. Currently, Austin Cindric has three straight finishes of 31st or worse at Kansas, but he finished 11th and 12th there back in 2022, so there's hope.
Cindric has also struggled at the Charlotte Roval, with finishes of 25th and 21st, but the No. 2 Ford has had top-15 speed on road courses the last two seasons, so we could see improvement there. At Talladega, Cindric has finished fifth and ninth in the last two fall races, and he scored 19 Stage points there earlier this season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Relatively low. I could see Cindric advancing if several other drivers had trouble in this round or if he's able to pull out a win at Talladega (obviously).
Sitting only four points below the cut line to start isn't bad for Cindric, but he rarely scores any Stage points, and that is definitely a dagger for him. If he makes it to the Round of 8, it would definitely be filed under "surprise" for many.
Daniel Suarez's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: Now that Harrison Burton is eliminated from this year's playoffs, Daniel Suarez is the slowest playoff driver left. In terms of Green Flag Speed, the no. 99 Chevrolet ranks just 25th-fastest, and there are some weeks (like Bristol) where the team looks absolutely lost. The opening race at Kansas will be a big test for this Trackhouse team, as Suarez has lacked speed on intermediates this year (24th-best).
How Round Two Shapes Up: The Round of 16 set up decently well for Daniel Suarez, but that's not the case in Round Two. He has just one top-10 finish in the last 14 races at Kansas, and at the Charlotte Roval, five of Suarez's six career starts have ended with finishes outside of the top 20.
There is hope, though. The No. 99 Chevrolet has qualified third in the last two races at Charlotte, so there could be some speed there, and Suarez has three top-10 finishes at Talladega in four Next Gen races.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Low. We've seen races where Suarez has surprising speed out of nowhere, but also ones where he looks lost on the track (as I talked about before). Having blind luck can work in the first round of the playoffs, but it gets progressively more difficult to succeed as the rounds go on.
Suarez may need a win in this round if he wants to advance. He starts the Round of 12 at six points below the cut line.
Alex Bowman's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: Alex Bowman has done Alex Bowman things this season, as he has as many top-10 finishes as his teammate, Chase Elliott, but is also in the lower third of playoff drivers when it comes to top-fives. Through the first 29 races this year, Bowman's average finish of 14.9 ranks seventh-best in the series, although his Green Flag Speed ranking is 12th-fastest.
How Round Two Shapes Up: This is actually a solid round for Alex Bowman. He's never finished worse than 10th in the Next Gen era at Kansas, and he has also never finished worse than 10th at the Charlotte Roval in five career starts there. Even at Talladega, Bowman has performed well, with finishes of 13th or better in three of the four Next Gen races.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Above average. If the No. 48 team can avoid some bad luck, they have an advantage over some of the other playoff drivers near the bubble when it comes to these next three races, so Bowman should be able to earn enough points to advance to the Round of 8. Starting seven points below the cut line isn't great, but all it takes is one decent race to erase that.
Chase Briscoe's Round Two Outlook
Current Form: It has been an interesting season when it comes to speed at Stewart-Haas Racing. As the weeks have clicked by, however, it appears that they have gained in that department, particularly Briscoe's No. 14 Ford. Over the last six races, Briscoe ranks eighth-best in the series when it comes to driver rating. Maybe he's getting hot at the right time...
How Round Two Shapes Up: This is a pretty tough round for Chase Briscoe. In seven career starts at Kansas, he only has one finish better than 19th, and he has two finishes of 22nd or worse in three career starts at the Charlotte Roval.
Briscoe has been good at Talladega (he's finished 14th or better in six of his seven starts there), but he really can't rely on a good finish there. As far as speed goes, the No. 14 Ford has been about a 15th-to-20th-place car on intermediates this year but does have two top-15s at road courses.
Chances of Advancing To Round Three: Below average. It's all going to come down to whether or not this newfound speed is here to stay for Chase Briscoe. He's only seven points below the cut line to start this round. He could be one of those who sneak through if several others have trouble, but if that doesn't happen, it's going to be tough for Briscoe to advance.
Jordan's Round of 12 Elimination Predictions
The biggest question mark in this round is definitely Talladega. Even though penalties and mechanical issues can happen at Kansas, that race is going to be pretty straightforward, and we know who should be good at the Charlotte Roval.
With several of the faster cars being eliminated after the last round (Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr), that opens up the gap even more in this round between the true contenders and the guys who are just hoping to squeak through.
We got several surprise eliminations in the Round of 16. The Round of 12 should be more straightforward, but you never know what's going to happen at Talladega. As always, it's going to be fun to watch it all unfold, though!
Jordan's next four out: Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, and Joey Logano
Potential "big name" driver with a surprise early exit: William Byron
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