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Sunday afternoon features the fifth race of the chase at Talladega. The YellaWood 500 is raced on the 2.66-mile superspeedway. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: Rapidfire Time Pick The Correct Drivers
As promised, we are taking more and more swings at the RapidFire contest, the past several weeks have been mostly successful but are scaling back to two drivers each because of the superspeedway at Talladega being a great equalizer.
With the second set of races beginning this weekend to determine the Round of 8, Talladega will give drivers their final chance at a superspeedway. Just win and you're in. Can Chase Elliott or Denny Hamlin win this week? Will it be a Ford? It does seem a Ford has a better chance and the best package to come out with a victory on the Alabama 2.66-mile behemoth of a race track. The biggest problem is well almost every winner comes from the top 20. Because of "Chase Metrics", all four drivers here are within the top ten.
The idea that Blaney is getting 1.5 points is quite intriguing. Neither driver figures to lead as many laps here (only 188). This boils down to the place. If one believes the Ford car can finish near or ahead of Hamlin, then this prop has to be taken. If not, then one goes the other way to Hamlin.
Then, there is the ultimate risk between Chase Elliott and Joey Logano. Both drivers have some success at Talladega. However, the 2.66-mile track has caused everyone their share of issues. Arguably, Logano has the upper hand here because of experience and the fact that he has multiple wins on the track including back-to-back fall wins (2015 and 2016). Elliott has run well on the track with a few top tens along the way. It comes down to who avoids the carnage best and has the downforce to stay on their line the best. Logano should be able to keep up with Elliott later in runs. This should be fun.
So, it's a risky bet here on both fronts and a bet on the Fords err Team Penske.
The one time we take a risk here and go with Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney is based solely on getting plus-points for both because of the RapidFire format.
RapidFire Picks: Ryan Blaney (+1.5), Joey Logano (+0.5)
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Chase Elliott MORE 12.5 Fantasy Points, Joey Logano MORE 12.5 Fantasy Points
This prop is a fun one because who knows how this week could turn out. Hell, both of these racers should come up close to the podium on Sunday afternoon or crash out.
Luck has not been kind lately to either as we said. However, the feeling is that Elliott raced to a second-place finish at Las Vegas last week against all odds. Even the pit strategy was not great for him. Despite that, he went from a long way back to 0.44 seconds away from passing Denny Hamlin. Another lap or two and there is probably a different winner of the South Point 400 last Sunday. Elliott and the Hendrick Motorsports Racing car start third on Sunday. The idea and hope are that he leads some laps before an inevitable fade down the top-ten. A bonus would be if he stays in the top-five throughout most of the race and finishes that way.
These point totals are the most intriguing of the bunch we have seen for Sunday's race. Now, the dilemma with Joey Logano is everyone knows that Penske has won nine of the last 14 races at Talladega. The question boils down to can he finish in the top ten? That answer should be yes and do not be surprised if he leads a few laps. Playing the percentages on Sunday with some lowered expectations and prop totals plays into the hands of some bettors.
Take the MORE anyway and look to the other Penske and Ford drivers as well. A Ford car has won 13 of the last 15 races on the superspeedway at Talladega.
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