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Sunday afternoon features the ninth race of the Chase at Martinsville Speedway. The Xfinity 500 is raced on a 0.526-mile short track. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: Rapidfire Time Pick The Correct Drivers
As promised, the shots we are taking with RapidFire keep on continuing. This week at Martinsville Motor Speedway could be infuriating. One thing to expect is more volatility than usual. We said that last week and expect it again this week.
With this weekend's race determining the Championship 4, there is a different mindset to approach this. Think about it. There remain just two races in the 2021 NASCAR season. It is crazy to believe. Here are some pitfalls with this week's race.
The idea that Kyle Larson is giving up 1.5 points on a track where he is historically not good at is baffling. Hell, even Denny Hamlin is getting 2.5 points against Kyle Larson for example. Did someone make Hendrick Motorsports the lightning rod on props? Hey, the question has to be asked. Now, Kyle Larson can buck almost any trend but 1.5 points is a lot here. With Larson winning last week, does he go for it this weekend anyway?
Then, there is that Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott debate. This is a near-even matchup. Monkey Knife Fight may have gone a bit extra with Hamlin giving up 1.5 points. However, from a risk aversion standpoint, this makes perfect sense. Now, people can see whatever they want to. However, Chase Elliott does well on this track lately. He likes Martinsville. Last Fall, he led 236 laps en route to victory.
Last week, Larson found a win to win again for his ninth win of the season. Few could believe that the No. 5 car would just find a way to not only win but then hold off everyone again. One has to hand it to the Hendrick Motorsport Racing driver. Kyle Larson does find ways to just keep snatching a win from the jaws of defeat. He will try almost anything if it works. The problem is at Martinsville, Kyle Larson does not have the lift and speed with this version of the 750HP package.
Martin Truex Jr. carries that lift and has those three wins in his last seven appearances at Martinsville. That also comes with a half dozen top-ten results. The No. 19 car leads in lap led on this track with a percentage of just about 22. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver feels like he has to win this weekend and he may have to in order to advance to the Championship Four.
So, it's a risky bet here on both fronts and a bet on the underdogs is worth a shot. If it feels like the pattern flip flops every week, one is not wrong.
The Sunday afternoon picks are Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott with the points!
RapidFire Picks: Martin Truex Jr. (+1.5), Kyle Busch (+1.5)
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Denny Hamlin MORE 15.5 Fantasy Points, Chase Elliott MORE 14.5 Fantasy Points
This prop here worked out for once albeit narrowly and because of some laps led which could be best described as lucky. Either way, things ended well.
Anyway, Martinsville is never an easy track but Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott are two of the better drivers out there. They also have a bit of a cushion when it comes to the Championship 4 at Phoenix next Sunday.
These point totals are quite intriguing. There are 500 laps in all (unless there's overtime). The laps increase is nice but just because someone is at or near the pole does not make a ton of laps led automatically. We have seen racers on the pole just fade like crazy too often. This is true, especially at Martinsville. One gets caught on the wrong line and a racer can drop 10-15 spots in just a lap or so.
Take the MORE anyway for both of these drivers on Sunday. When looking at driver averages, they are both among the top seven active drivers. It would not be surprising to see both of them lead a significant amount of laps. An interesting caveat is this. Neither driver has to necessarily go for broke with their lead. Both have more than a 30-point lead on the playoff cutoff line.
Pick 2/2 Correctly to 2.5x Your Buy-in
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