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Hello everyone once again! We head out to near the Arches in Madison, Illinois, for the Enjoy Illinois 300 this week and the 15th 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Christopher Bell Over 35.5 Points. This is extremely volatile only because of how few laps he may or may not lead. Starting from the top five (third) could be somewhat of a boost and that makes this pick intriguing. The problem is bridging previous results with the Next-Gen car. One can say that every week. The Goodyear tire issues aside, Bell has four straight top-six results and this week could be number five. If he sets just enough fast laps and leads a few laps, that may put him just above his prop number on Sunday. Going slightly over is not that far of a leap.
Joey Logano Under 53.5 Points. The reason is taking a risk even. Joey Logano was quite fast in practice and speed loops but did not qualify in the top-five. Here are several red flags on both sides of the ledger. Logano could easily fall out of the top ten or win the race. The latter is trending to become less likely. However, it's still in the realm of slight possibilities. That 13 of 16 in the top ten is not enough. It boils down to how many fastest laps and laps led. With just 240 laps to go around, is that enough?
Ross Chastain Over 46.5 Points. This is one of the more fun numbers to look at on Sunday. Chastain is fast here and has the ability to lead some laps even qualifying in tenth. There is just this sense that Chastain is one of those Chevy racers that just maximizes speed at all costs. This means laps led and fastest laps which increase his floor play. If he does finish in the top ten, that may be just enough points. The thought process is he comes close to 50 which covers. The margin of error here is not that great but it could be.
William Byron Under 49.5 Points. The William Byron story is interesting. He has consistently finished outside the top ten since early April. Remember all those consistent finishes last year which paved his way to a breakout season. The opposite is kind of happening now. Byron qualified outside the top-20 but can he move up enough positions? That is the concern and lately, the Hendrick Motorsports driver just has not been able to stay in a good position. The lack of led laps on intermediate tracks is more troubling. Take the under here and don't look back.
Kevin Harvick Over 39.5 Points. This could prove to work on Sunday. The fact that Kevin Harvick begins the 240-lap race in 20th is good. That gives him room to move upward position wise. Even with some unfortunate results, Harvick's consistency on intermediate tracks is crazy. The Stewart-Haas driver is 16 for 16 in top-ten finishes. If one adds those points up, that comes out to greater than 40. That makes for an easy avenue to get to the over. Hence, it's a reasonable prop to add on to increase the legs of the "parlay".
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Brad Keselowski (Over N/A) -- Brad Keselowski did not get a point total because of his lack of results more than likely. That makes it academic this week to look elsewhere at least. Alex Bowman over William Byron is something to keep an eye on. Bowman has been more consistent this season which still sounds and looks weird to type.
Harrison Burton (Under 19.5 points) -- Expect the unexpected I guess. Burton starting at ninth is a surprise but the chances he stays there is almost zero. How many positions does he drop? If it is ten or more, this prop connects on Sunday. The goal is to try and roll with this one to add some legs.
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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