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Hello once again everyone! We hit the Cook Out Southern 500 from Darlington Motor Speedway this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Over 35 Points. This was a pretty easy choice as the Joe Gibbs Racing driver simply loves racing at Darlington. He produces consistent results and has three top-three results in his last four summer races on the 1.366-mile course. It is hard to just take anyone else and on occasion, Busch will lead a bunch of laps here (118 in 2019). That laps-led part may be the riskiest part of this prop bet. However, his average finish on all intermediate tracks leads all active drivers. His average finish at Darlington over the past several summer races is also one of the best. Take the OVER here.
Denny Hamlin Over 34.5 Points. The waiting is at least over for Denny Hamlin. The Chase has been kinder of late to Hamlin as he did manage to accumulate some more playoff points. Also, the No. 11 car does have some impressive results at Darlington including a 2017 summer win. Even last year, Hamlin led 19 laps and was a factor until very late in the race where car issues dropped him to 13th. This is probably that first, real suspect pick of "The Chase". Hamlin does not lead a ton of laps on the track (just 2.46%) but again there is that chance of a top-five result. He only has to finish sixth to hit the over. That is reasonable given his fifth place in the Spring. Take the OVER.
Brad Keselowski Under 30.5 Points. The idea is great given the build and that Keselowski is not one of the better drivers lately on this racecourse. He has finished outside of the top ten three out of the last four times. To hit that under, Keselowski would have to end up 11th or worse. That is not unreasonable given his results. It is about a 50-50 coin flip at Darlington (three top-tens in the last six appearances). The No. 2 car did win the summer 2018 edition but since has had again mixed results. Flip the coin to heads and ride the under.
Kyle Larson Over 38.5 Points. The good thing is the prop total is still solid. The likelihood that Larson ends up on the podium is high and watch him try to rack up some laps led points early and then try to win the race late. That is the No. 5 car in a nutshell. He wants to win no matter how little need there is to. That is just how Larson is wired. Normally, there is nothing wrong with that. Even with a playoff points cushion, Larson will floor it when he needs to. Can he stay safe during the middle parts of the race to make that push late? If he can, then take the lowest prop total for Larson and go over on it. A win or second-place finish is likely.
Martin Truex Jr. Over 35.5 Points. This one could end poorly or not. Truex Jr. has that dominant win and three top-tens in the last six races at Darlington. However, a couple of those races ended outside the top ten where the No. 19 car was not a factor at all. That is the risk. Truex Jr. is the best at tire management on these tracks and the expected tranquil weather will make managing one's car paramount. Being the race is at night, track temperature will be a bit less of an issue. However, the New Jersey native still should manage a top-five result if he and his pit crew make proper pit adjustments. Take the over here as Truex Jr. even has a decent shot at winning on Sunday.
Some other drivers to look at:
Matt DiBenedetto (over 23 points) -- Could very well finish around the top-15 again.
Aric Almirola (over 24 points) -- Will be quite close but could finish in the top-12.
Chris Buescher (over 22 points) -- A long shot who finished second last week at Michigan but was disqualified.
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