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Hello once again everyone! We hit the South Point 400 from Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Over 35.5 Points. This is the week we take a shot at this because the younger Busch has not won here in his last seven races. With only 267 laps, there are fewer chances for Kyle Busch to lead. It does not matter where he starts (10th by the way this week). He is a driver who once finished top five after a number of issues that would have kept lesser drivers down and out. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has the second-highest prop total this week. That is not a surprise given he is up near the top in most odds much like Kyle Larson. It's a razor-thin edge but one nonetheless. The younger Busch has several top-fives and enough past success at Las Vegas. Take the OVER here plus HOME ADVANTAGE!
Denny Hamlin Under 35.5 Points. The risk is high here but Hamlin has just three top ten results in his last seven appearances. That includes an average finish of just 14. This is a rough number given he has to finish sixth or better if the No. 11 does not lead a single lap. Hamlin may fare better next week anyway and even better at the Charlotte ROVAL depending on track conditions. He still could easily finish in the top ten but there is this feeling he may not contend on Sunday night. That may be more Kyle Busch or even Martin Truex Jr.'s type of race. Take the under.
William Byron Over 32.5 Points. The idea is great with the Hendricks having a chance at taking at least two or three of the top five spots on Sunday. It is still a risk only because even though Byron has run in the top five on the final speed interval, that does not mean something else would happen. Again, strange things can happen in Las Vegas. It's like pulling the arm on one of those one-armed bandits. A person never quite knows what they will get. The No. 24 still could be a nice, pleasant surprise again as he is still in the chase.
Kyle Larson Over 37.5 Points. The good thing is the prop total is still not outrageous this week but is closer to Larson's overall ability. It is not at the low-hanging fruit level of 35.5 like last week. However, the No. 5 car should be good again to lead some laps and nab a podium finish. There is an intriguing Larson-Busch top five parlay out there again and that is one everyone should watch for. Also, there are some Hendricks top ten four-leg parlays as well that could be plausible on Sunday night. Again, at least one Hendricks driver will end up on the podium. The most probable one is Kyle Larson.
Martin Truex Jr. Over 34 Points. This is nuts, right? Wrong! It is extremely close and PrizePicks may have nailed this one as it could push. The feeling is that Truex Jr very well could finish sixth or seventh on Sunday night at Vegas. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has an average finish of, get this, 6.57. That includes a win and six top-ten results in seven races since 2018. It is just set up too well based on prop and results for the No. 19 car. The fact that this is a night race should help Truex Jr. a bit early on. Can he maintain enough speed during the 107 lap final stage? That is the only question. Take the over by a whisker.
Some other drivers to look at:
Christopher Bell (over 30.5 points) -- Could very well finish around the top five or ten again on Saturday.
Ryan Blaney (over 32 points) -- Blaney is a fun risk on Sunday night. Few expect much from him.
Ross Chastain (over 25.5 points) -- Sorry everyone. Chastain will still be a force next year. Take the OVER.
Alex Bowman (over 31.5 points) -- Feast or famine pick here. Either he comes close to winning and almost does or finishes outside the top-20.
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