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Hello once again everyone! We hit the Bass Pro Shops Night Race from Bristol Motor Speedway this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Over 36.5 Points. This is the week we take the bait and hope it does not hurt. With 500 laps, there are ample chances for Kyle Busch to lead. It does not matter where he starts (9th by the way this week). He is a driver who once finished second with ease after starting from the back row not once but twice. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has the highest prop total this week. That is not a surprise given he is a slight favorite in most odds over Kyle Larson. It's a razor-thin edge but one nonetheless. The younger Busch has won twice in his last six tries at Bristol with five top-ten finishes. Take the OVER here.
Denny Hamlin Under 35.5 Points. The risk is palpable here but Hamlin has shown enough with a first and second in the first two races of the chase. He has little to race for and honestly avoiding catastrophe could be his best move. It would not be a surprise if he finishes just outside the top five and somewhere between 7th and 10th on Saturday night. The No. 11 driver does have a win in his last six appearances but just two top-tens in that span. Again, the law of averages dictates this could backfire. However, that number is being dangled. There are other drivers with more urgency. Take the under.
William Byron Under 28.5 Points. The idea is great given the build (750 HP oval) and that Byron is not one of the better drivers lately on this racecourse. He has finished outside of the top 15 with great frequency on short tracks the past three seasons. To hit that under, Byron would have to end up 13th or worse. That is not unreasonable given his results. It is about a 50-50 coin flip as Byron did finish sixth in the Spring race that was on the dirt. This is a risky pick but his loop speeds on asphalt on short tracks scream below average for Hendricks' standards anyway. Take the under.
Kyle Larson Over 36 Points. The good thing is the prop total is still not outrageous this week. It is not quite at the low-hanging fruit level of 34 like last week. However, the No. 5 car should be good again to lead some laps and nab a top-five finish. There is an intriguing Larson-Busch top five parlay out there (around +200 at press time). Larson is one of the few Hendricks' drivers that can win on any track and in any scenario. Larson typically avoids pit issues so do not be surprised by another top-five result on Saturday.
Martin Truex Jr. Under 30.5 Points. This is nuts, right? Wrong! Bristol is that one short track that frustrates Martin Truex Jr. early and often. Throw out the dirt track from the Spring, the No. 19 driver from the Joe Gibbs Racing team has just one top-ten finish in his previous 17 appearances. That is right. SEVENTEEN! Again, these laps tick off quickly and there is little time for anything but drive drive drive. The downforce of the banked turns just does not seem to work out well for Truex Jr. By the time, he gets it right, it typically is too late. Just take the under on this one!
Some other drivers to look at:
Christopher Bell (over 29.5 points) -- Could very well finish around the top five or ten again on Saturday.
Daniel Suarez (No-line?) -- Suarez likes Bristol and eats up top-2o finishes. Would have been a nice, ultra-low prop total.
Ross Chastain (over 27.5 points) -- Sorry everyone. Chastain will be a force next year. Take the OVER.
Alex Bowman (over 28.5 points) -- Feast or famine pick here. Either he comes close to winning and does or finishes outside the top-20.
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