RADIO
Hello once again everyone! We drive on over to Martinsville, Virginia for the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 this week and the eighth 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kevin Harvick Over 38.5 Points. This starts as high-risk but Harvick and the Stewart-Haas Fords were quick and did not get too loose as the 20 lap and 30 lap intervals came up. Contending is not guaranteed but Harvick could sneak in a few led laps. This is the most dangerous of our choices. For one, Harvick starts sixth and balanced aggression is not always the No. 4's strong suit. Either way, take the over. Finally, if one does not feel quite so safe here, look at Aric Almirola who stands at just 28.5 points in his prop.
Alex Bowman Over 47.5 Points. The reason is that 15th starting position. That offers improvement based on place differential alone. Bowman could make up as many as ten places or more by the midway point of the race. The No. 48 Chevy won here just last Fall surging at the very end. That was a race expected to be dominated by Martin Truex Jr. and the Joe Gibbs Racing team. That did not materialize. Bowman has been a bit more consistent this year and Hendricks tested well late on short tracks with the Next-Gen car. Gamble on this and try to hammer that over on Saturday night.
Chase Elliott Under 81.5 Points. This is the highest number seen all season so far on these props. If the Martinsville race was 500 laps, this would be something to jump on. Unfortunately, 100 less laps means fewer chances for points to be racked up. Chase Elliott has led more than 19% of the laps in the past six races. He did nab the pole but what if Elliott does not win? Those points falling back like Ryan Blaney last week could cause the under to connect. Consider that and roll with the under here.
Ryan Blaney Over 52.5 Points. The #12 driver could benefit because of place differential this week. His average finish in previous races was the best of any active driver at 5.8. Also, it did not seem Blaney lost that much speed as the intervals went on. That means he carried solid speed and did not suddenly drop a half second or more like the Toyota's did on Friday. Blaney is tied for the lead in points this season so far at 241 behind two top-five finishes. He has been close and the Team Penske Ford is more than quick enough to be near the front on Saturday night. Take the over with possible led laps and fastest laps.
Chris Buescher Over 18.5 Points. This could prove to be tough because Buescher does start 14th. That creates some possible problems if issues should arise in his Ford. The prevailing opinion is that the younger driver could sneak up and maintain position. A top-20 is potentially enough to make the over connect. That does not seem to be impossible. It's a fun risk to take as one strings along picks. Speed loop data is just favorable enough to look at the over.
Some other drivers to look at:
Kurt Busch (Over 32.5 points) -- The elder Busch was pretty fast in warmups and qualified 18th at Martinsville while producing one of the ten fastest laps among all drivers. His place differential is key here. Busch also showed the least fade among all cars with Toyota engines. The over is more than within reach.
Willam Byron (Over 56.5 points) -- Expect another nice week for Byron. After all, he did find a way to win the truck race. Using that knowledge, the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports driver should benefit late on Saturday night. He should rise in the field while others drop back. Risk the over here anyway. It is less than that 81.5 for Chase Elliott after all.
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