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NASCAR will feature a pair of Daytona 500 qualifying races on Thursday night with the Bluegreen Vacations Duels. This article will focus on the drivers in the first of the two Duel races.
Also important to note: DraftKings has separate contests for each Duel, while FanDuel has combined contests for the events. Because of that, I'm gearing this article more towards the DK players out there, mainly because I'm mad at FanDuel for not having separate contests. C'mon, y'all!
Below are some drivers to consider for DFS purposes this week. If you have any questions or want to talk NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Chase Elliott
Starts 3rd
(DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $13,500)
NASCAR is in a pickle. The Cup Series introduced a new car, but most teams are dealing with parts shortages and really, really don't want to wind up wrecking their car before the 500 even gets here. In fact, I think the rumor is that some teams didn't even bring a backup car this week.
Which is why I think these races could be really chalky. Hendrick cars start 1-2-3, but the one starting first is polesitter Kyle Larson, who has less to race for than anyone else since his starting spot is secured. So while I think he could dominate this race, I'd rather play it safe just in case he decides to say "nope" and drop to the back if things get messy and go with his Hendrick teammates to stay up front, lead laps and wind up with a strong finish.
It's worth noting that Elliott has won two of these Duel races in his career, though he hasn't led laps in them over the last three years.
William Byron
Starts 2nd
(DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $11,500)
Some similar reasoning here to my Elliott reasoning: best superspeedway team in NASCAR, has teammates up front that he can hook up with, is a strong contender to win this Duel.
Byron has had weird luck in these qualifying races, with one win and then three finishes worse than 10th, though twice that was in a race where his starting spot was locked in already so he didn't read to race for the win — the same reason I'm avoiding Larson.
Justin Haley
Starts 14th
(DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $6,700)
My first place differential play of this race.
Haley has been one of the best superspeedway racers in the Xfinity Series over the past few years and Kaulig Racing has been the top superspeedway team in Xfinity, in large part because of Haley.
Now, we're taking this duo and moving it up to Cup.
Haley has two wins at this track in Xfinity, including one last season. He also won a shortened Cup Series race here in 2019 in a Spire car, though that's probably not the most predictive thing in the world.
But Haley did drive a Spire car to a sixth-place finish at Daytona in 2o21, something that does feel possibly predictive, at least in the "it shows his talent here extends beyond Xfinity" sense.
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Austin Cindric
Starts 11th
(DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $7,700)
Cindric takes over the 2 car for Team Penske this year. The former Xfinity champion was supposed to start his career with the Wood Brothers, but Brad Keselowski's decision to leave Penske opened up the Blue Deuce. (Can we still call it that even though it's almost never that color anymore?)
Last year, Cindric made seven Cup starts in the 33. One was in the 500, where he led two laps and finished 15th, though it would have been higher if not for a late crash that ended his race. (15th after a DNF? I forgot how wild that race was.)
Cole Custer
Starts 15th
(DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $5,500)
Custer starts 15th and has some of the top place differential upside in this race because of it. He had a fifth-place finish in the 2020 Duel race, but 2021 as a whole was disappointing for Custer, who had just two top 10s all year. But one of those did come at a superspeedway race, when he was 10th in the spring visit to Talladega.
Anyway, unexciting play that could sneak into the top 10 and really help your lineup.
Erik Jones
Starts 12th
(DraftKings $6,300 | FanDuel $5,500)
I wanted to pick Noah Gragson here, but he's locked into the 500 as one of the non-chartered teams and I'm pretty sure Beard Motorsports is going to ask him to do whatever he can to keep the car clean, so I'm going with Erik Jones instead.
Jones should be able to move a few spots forward in this race, though his ceiling is pretty capped unless things get weird. Still, this is a guy who has a Cup Series win at this track and should be able to run a clean qualifying race. I like having him in some lineups.
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