X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Najee Harris's Fantasy Football Potential is Super-Charged in LA

Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Rob breaks down what fantasy managers can expect from Najee Harris for the 2025 season now that he's signed with the Los Angeles Chargers.

The heart of the NFL Free Agency is already behind us. Minor deals will be made from now until training camp, but the big fish have been signed. We've also seen several trades go through, and there will likely be more, especially as we lead up to the NFL Draft. However, Najee Harris, the former Pittsburgh Steelers running back, is one big domino that has fallen.

He signed a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers on the opening day of the NFL Free Agency. He'll replace J.K. Dobbins and become the lead-back for the Chargers this season. Harris has been a dependable and consistent player for the Steelers; however, in fantasy football circles, he's often viewed negatively. Sometimes, very negatively. How much of that is on Harris, and what can fantasy managers expect from Harris this season in Los Angeles?

In this article, we'll review Harris's career in Pittsburgh and look forward to the 2025 season. We'll determine what fantasy managers should expect from him this season and what kind of fantasy football value he has. Sign up for our Premium membership to take your fantasy game to a new level. This subscription includes additional tools, articles, and engagement from our fantastic team. Please use "BOOM" at checkout to receive a 10% discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Four Seasons in Pittsburgh

Fantasy managers indeed have opinions on Najee Harris, and most are not good. It's somewhat astonishing, considering he's one of just five running backs to start his career with four straight 1,000 rushing yard seasons. The other four are Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis, and LaDainian Tomlinson. He's also the only running back in the NFL who has played all 17 games in each of the last four seasons. Considering those two stats, it's incredible how many fantasy managers will want nothing to do with Harris in 2025, but is that the right call?

Harris finished as the RB27 in half-PPR PPG last year with a 10.8 PPG average. In 2023, he was the RB32 with a 10.0 half-PPR PPG average. His 11.8 half-PPR PPG average in 2022 was RB22. That's light-years away from his RB6 finish as a rookie when he finished with a 16.0 half-PPR PPG average. Based on his production, he's been a middling RB2/3 for the past three seasons, so there's a reason fantasy managers have soured on him a bit. The question becomes, was that all his fault?

In 2021, the Steelers still had Ben Roethlisberger. Now, Big Ben wasn't great anymore, but he was still good enough to lead an average offense. He threw for 3,740 yards, completed 64.5% of his passes, and had 22 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions. He wasn't lighting the NFL on fire, but he wasn't a negative, either. Pittsburgh still finished just 21st in points scored and 23rd in total yards gained. That year, Pittsburgh's offensive line ranked 26th, according to PFF. They generated just 0.9 yards before contact on average, which ranked 29th.

Harris endured the combination of Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky the following season. They finished 26th in points scored and 23rd in yards gained. Their offensive line finished 16th in PFF's final rankings, a solid improvement from the previous season. However, Harris had the sixth-most runs with seven or more men in the box with 213. That was 78% of his total rush attempts. Not surprisingly, defenses were not afraid of Pickett or Trubisky beating them.

In 2023, the Steelers finished 28th in points scored and 25th in yards gained. Pickett, Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph all saw time behind center. The Steelers' offensive line ranked 17th according to PFF's final rankings. Harris had the third most carries with seven or more men in the box this time, just shy of 80% of his carries. Keep that in mind when you look at his yard-per-carry averages. This only tells half the story.

The other half includes average to foul offensive line play and dreadful quarterback play, which resulted in him running against 7+ men boxes on 80% of his carries. It's not a recipe for success for anyone—well, unless you're Derrick Henry. But we shouldn't judge Harris harshly because he isn't him. Who is?

This past season, the Steelers had Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. They finished 16th in points scored and 23rd in yards gained. In Harris's four seasons in the NFL, Pittsburgh has never, not once, finished higher than 23rd in yards gained. Their average ranking is 23.5. 2024 was the only season in which Pittsburgh finished higher than 21st in points scored. Their average finish in Harris's four seasons is 22.7. Their offensive line finished 27th in PFF's final 2024 rankings. Their average ranking over the past four seasons is 21.5, and they never finished in the top 15.

In 2024, only Saquon Barkley and Henry had more rush attempts with seven men or more in the box. Harris finished with 227 such runs, a whopping 86% (!!!) of his carries. For reference, J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers' 2024 starter, had seven men or more in the box on just 70% of his carries. That still sounds like a lot, but it's nothing compared to Harris's 86%.

In his four seasons in Pittsburgh, Harris has had seven or more men in the box on 75% of his runs. Over the past three seasons, since Roethlisberger's retirement, that number has jumped to 81.5%. Maybe, just maybe, Harris's inefficiency isn't all on Harris.

 

2025 Projection

Let's get this out of the way real quick - the Chargers will not be drafting a running back very high. They don't have a tight end. They have one good receiver, and they could use more depth on the interior of their offensive line. We haven't even gotten to the defensive side of the ball, where their best pass-rusher is the 35-year-old Khalil Mack. I know this draft class is stacked at running back, but if they intended to target that position, there would have been no reason to sign Harris. He's going to be their workhorse.

He has had 381, 313, 284, and 299 total touches in four seasons. Think about that. There are excellent running backs who go a whole career without having 284 touches, and that's the fewest Harris has gotten in four seasons. He averages 319 touches per season.

Here's another thing to consider: Harris has never scored more than 10 touchdowns despite those high-touch numbers and being healthy for all 17 games. The most rushing touchdowns he's had in a season is eight. He's never had fewer than 255 rushing attempts and fewer than 17 games. Dobbins had nine rushing touchdowns last season on 195 carries and in just 13 games. He scored on every 22nd carry. Harris has scored on every 40th carry as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harris has significantly more scoring upside as a Charger.

The Chargers' offensive line should be even better this season. With Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, they have a top-5 tackle duo in the NFL. The Chargers also finished 11th in points last year. With Ladd McConkey going into his second season and the entire team having been in Harbaugh and Roman's system for a year, we should expect improvements across the board.

Last year, the Chargers had 373 running back carries. That's a healthy number. However, they also targeted their running backs just 55 times. That's not ideal at all, and it's hugely important. Harris had 94 targets and 74 receptions in his best fantasy season. Over the next three years, he averaged just 46 targets and 35 receptions per season. He may struggle to reach those numbers in Los Angeles, hurting his fantasy value.

In the Chargers' first four games, they had 97 running back carries, an average of 24.25 per game. Over their final 13 games, they had 276 running back carries, an average of 21.23 per game. As the season went on, the Chargers started to pass the ball more frequently. This shouldn't be entirely surprising. A passing system can take more time to implement and gain comfortability than a running game.

Using that second number, the Chargers' offense should expect around 360 running back carries in 2025. Harris has handled 62-63% of the team's running back carries in the past two seasons in Pittsburgh. That was with Jaylen Warren, who is far better than anyone the Chargers currently roster behind Harris at running back. If he handled 62.5% of the 360 carries we expect, he'd finish with around 225 carries. In 2022, he managed 72.5% of Pittsburgh's running back carries; in 2021, it was 85.7%.

At 72.5%, he'd have 261 carries in 2025. At 85.7%, he'd have 309, which isn't realistic. The most likely answer is somewhere in the middle. I'd expect somewhere between 65-70%. That would give him a range of 234-252 carries. In his four seasons, he's averaged 3.8-to-4.1 yards per carry. Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry. It's reasonable to expect his yard-per-carry average to increase with the offensive line and fewer seven-man boxes. Harris was at 4.0 and 4.1 the past two seasons.

If we give him a range of 4.4-to-4.6 on his 234-252 carries, his expected rushing yard total would be 1,030-1,159 rushing yards. That's not so different from where he's been the past three seasons in Pittsburgh. The potential comes with touchdowns. Dobbins had nine last year on 195 carries. Harris had six last year on 263 carries. Had Dobbins been healthy, he likely would have finished with 12-13 touchdowns. Harris hasn't scored double-digit touchdowns since 2022 and has never scored more than 10.

In Los Angeles, 10 touchdowns seem like the floor for Harris, but the ceiling could be as high as 15. As far as targets and receptions, fantasy managers shouldn't expect much. We'll give him a range of 20-35 receptions for 120-245 yards. How do these projections translate to fantasy football? If we calculate the bottom of these numbers, he'd finish with 185 total half-PPR points and a 10.8 PPG average. At the high end of these projections, he'd finish with 247.9 points and a half-PPR PPG average of 14.5.

Based on 2024 running back scoring, this gives him a projected range of RB12-RB27. The broad discrepancy details how close the running backs are in this range and how important touchdowns are. That's not surprising, but scoring 10 touchdowns vs 15 touchdowns will (obviously) have a massive difference.

It'll be interesting to watch where he ends up being ranked once the free agency dust and NFL Draft are complete. Assuming he ends up being ranked in the RB20-24 range, Harris will be a player fantasy managers should target this season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NHL

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer with No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
MLB

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Jeremy Peña

Imaging Negative on Jeremy Pena's Ribs on Friday
Spencer Steer

Slugs Three Home Runs in Win
Ace Bailey

to Report to Utah on Saturday
Sonny Gray

Tosses Complete-Game Shutout
Justin Edwards

Sixers Agree on a New Contract
Naz Reid

Agrees to a New Contract with Minnesota
Hunter Goodman

Dealing With Hamstring Soreness
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Returns Against Marlins
Wyatt Langford

Rangers to Place Wyatt Langford on Injured List
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Now in Friday's Lineup
Wyatt Langford

Out With Strained Oblique
Luis Robert Jr.

Out on Friday
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Not in Friday's Lineup
Xander Bogaerts

Back in Lineup on Friday
Griffin Canning

Done for the Year With Ruptured Achilles
Jae'Sean Tate

Rockets Want to Bring Back Jae'Sean Tate
Andre Drummond

Accepts Player Option
Cal Raleigh

Added to Home Run Derby Field
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Won't Start on Friday
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Should Play Vs. BoSox
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Spencer Jones

Promoted to Triple-A
Matthew Golden

Appears Set for Significant Role
Derrick Harmon

in Line to Start
Jahdae Barron

Primarily Working at Cornerback
Cleveland Cavaliers

Tyrese Proctor Selected by Cavaliers With the No. 49 Pick
Portland Trail Blazers

Caleb Love Lands with Trail Blazers
Dallas Mavericks

Ryan Nembhard Signs a Two-Way Deal with Mavericks
Orlando Magic

Noah Penda Drafted and Traded to the Magic
Phoenix Suns

Rasheer Fleming Taken With the First Pick of the Second Round
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Josh Giddey

Receives Qualifying Offer from Chicago
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Andre Szmyt

Browns Sign Andre Szmyt to One-Year Deal
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Wilfried Pene

Patriots Waive Wilfried Pene
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Aaron Rodgers

Lauds DK Metcalf as "Big Reason" Behind Move to Pittsburgh
Emeka Egbuka

to Have Big Role in the Offense
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Grey Zabel

in Line to Start at Left Guard
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Shemar Stewart

Bengals Still High on Shemar Stewart
SJ

Sharks Buying Out Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Jamie Benn

Stays in Dallas on One-Year Deal
Reilly Smith

Signs New One-Year Deal with Vegas
Michael Kesselring

Traded to Sabres
Josh Doan

Moves to Buffalo
JJ Peterka

Mammoth Acquire JJ Peterka
Evander Kane

Traded to Canucks
Miami Heat

Miami Selects Guard Kasparas Jakucionis
Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn Takes Nolan Traore in the First Round
Utah Jazz

Walter Clayton Jr. Heading to Utah
Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Drafts Joan Beringer
Portland Trail Blazers

Yang Hansen Drafted by Portland
Oklahoma City Thunder

Thomas Sorber Selected by Thunder
San Antonio Spurs

Carter Bryant Lands in San Antonio
New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Acquires No. 13 Overall Pick Derik Queen From Atlanta
Chicago Bulls

Noa Essengue Drafted by Chicago
Memphis Grizzlies

Cedric Coward Drafted by Portland, Traded to Memphis
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
Ryan Poehling

Becomes a Duck
Trevor Zegras

Moves to Philadelphia
Andre Burakovsky

Traded to Blackhawks
Fabian Zetterlund

Remains in Ottawa on Three-Year Deal
Matt Duchene

Signs Four-Year Extension
Jonathan Toews

to Sign with Jets
Ryan Blaney

Drives Through the Field Twice Despite Failing Cool Suit to Finish Third
William Byron

Poor Strategy Ruins William Byron's Strong Run
Kyle Larson

Decent Pocono Run Allows Him to Make Up Some of his Points Deficit
John Hunter Nemechek

Earns Another Sixth-Place Finish in One of His Best Career Races
Jamahal Hill

Gets Dominated At UFC Azerbaijan
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Dominates At UFC Azerbaijan
Rafael Fiziev

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ignacio Bahamondes

Drops Decision At UFC Azerbaijan
Curtis Blaydes

Gets Split-Decision Win at UFC Azerbaijan
Curtis Blaydes

Rizvan Kuniev Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
Denny Hamlin

Falls Short of Victory At Pocono
Chase Elliott

Continues his 2025 Consistency with A Top-Five Run at Pocono
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace's Difficult Weekend Ends with A Tire Failure at Pocono
Chris Buescher

Finishes Well at Pocono with A Solid Top-Five Finish
Tofiq Musayev

Submitted In His UFC Debut
Myktybek Orolbai

Scores First-Round Submission
Nikolas Motta

Gets Finished After Back-And-Forth Fight
Nazim Sadykhov

Scores Second-Round TKO
Bogdan Grad

Drops Decision
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Notch Yet Another Pocono Win
Ryan Blaney

Qualifies 20th but Should Contend at Pocono
William Byron

the Chalk DFS Play at Pocono After Wrecking in Qualifying
Joey Logano

Is Better Than Recent Pocono Record Suggests
Chris Buescher

Looking for Legitimate Pocono Win This Time
Brad Keselowski

Should Be Strong at Pocono This Weekend
Josh Berry

a Safe DFS Option at Pocono After Diffuser Issue
Erik Jones

Is Good at Pocono
Noah Gragson

is a DFS Pivot Option at Pocono
Austin Dillon

is Respectable at Pocono
John Hunter Nemechek

Should Be Avoided in DFS
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF