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It wouldn’t be fair to highlight Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall as “must-have” running backs this season because it’s impossible to get them all on your roster. So instead, this article aims to highlight running backs that have varying average draft positions (ADPs) which makes it attainable to roster them all. You might not get them all, but at least you’ll have a few other options should you miss out on one of these guys.
So what’s a “must-have” player? In its simplest form, it’s a player you must have on your roster this season. Looking at it from a more nuanced perspective, it’s a player you should actively be targeting due to opportunity, efficiency, coachspeak, acquisition cost, and overall talent. These running backs could all be what many think of as “league-winners.” But instead, for the purpose of this article, we’ll call them “must-haves.”
Each of these four running backs has shown us something in the past that makes us want to be all in this season. Prioritize them in your fantasy drafts, and in some cases, be prepared to reach for them should you need to. Draft these four “must-have” running backs in 2024.
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Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron are gone, so it’s only up from here. The Seahawks have ranked dead last in plays per game in two of the last three seasons. So right off the bat, we should expect some gawdier numbers from the running backs.
In the last two seasons at the University of Washington, Ryan Grubb’s offenses ran 71.1 plays per game. In the two seasons before that, his Fresno State offenses ran 78.4 plays per game. For what it’s worth, the Seahawks ran a whopping 79 plays in Week 1 of the preseason. So it appears as if we’re going to see a much faster pace in 2024, and that’s a major boon to the fantasy value of the RB1 in Seattle.
If you’ve been following The Coachspeak Index on X, it’s quite clear Walker is that guy. He might even be a bell-cow in his first year in the new offense. And that became even more evident with Walker sitting out the first preseason game while Zach Charbonnet got a handful of snaps to begin the game.
#Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb on Kenneth Walker:
“I think he gets better every single day. I think the sky’s the limit for him. I think he’s a really, really talented, powerful back that’s a true three-tool guy… He’s electric out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.” pic.twitter.com/b3FAKUQHib
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 7, 2024
In his first two NFL seasons, Walker flashed some serious ability. Per PlayerProfiler, he’s had over a 29% Juke Rate each of his first two seasons. He’s also shown an ability to break tackles, finishing in the top 10 in both seasons despite missing two games each year. And the drum beating from the new coaching regime in Seattle has just gotten louder and louder on Walker. It appears they want to give the third-year back as much work as he can handle.
#Seahawks HC Macdonald on Kenneth Walker:
"Every time we go over the roster, [RBs coach] Kennedy [Polamalu], he gives me a little hint like, 'Let's feed this guy, he can be special.'"
📈📈
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) August 5, 2024
Right now, Walker will cost you a mid-to-late fourth-round pick in Yahoo! leagues with an ADP of 55 overall (or RB17). Last season, on the slowest-paced team in the league, he finished as the RB17 on a per-game basis in half PPR. With all of the recent coachspeak gassing him up and the expected faster pace of play in Seattle, the explosive 23-year-old back is a must-have in 2024.
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
Achane isn’t nearly as expensive as he should be heading into the 2024 season. That’s probably because Raheem Mostert found the end zone a whopping 21 times in 15 games last season. Despite Mostert’s first career 1,000-yard rushing season and his 21 total touchdowns, Achane still managed to amass 20.8 PPR fantasy points per game in nine healthy games.
Sure, he was banged up throughout the season, but those spike-week performances are what we dream of in fantasy football. He scored over 20 fantasy points in five of his nine “complete” games. He did so with just a 43.3% snap share and 40.6% opportunity share. Some think he’s a risky pick in the second round, but if anything, his production last season despite Mostert’s involvement should be seen as a positive for his ceiling outcome.
De’Von Achane suffered 5 injuries last year while handling just a moderate workload. Raheem Mostert scored 21 TDs last year and remains in Miami. I view Achane as a high injury risk with low volume upside. He’ll need to sustain historic efficiency to be worth a 2nd round pick
— Justin Macmahan (@JustinMacmahan) August 12, 2024
Is there some injury risk here? Absolutely there is. Is there a similar injury risk for Jahmyr Gibbs or Kyren Williams, both of whom go ahead of Achane in drafts? Probably! For what it’s worth, Joe Schad writes that he “appears more powerful, potent, and robust as he reports for Year 2.” Imagine him being better than he was last year when he was doing stuff like this:
2️⃣8️⃣ days until Dolphins football is back!
Throwback to when De'Von Achane introduced himself to the world vs. Denver Broncos:
➖ 18 carries
➖ 203 yards
➖ 2 rushing touchdowns
➖ 30 receiving yards
➖ 2 receiving touchdowns💨 #GoFins pic.twitter.com/p5o0G3HbYe
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) August 11, 2024
If all of that isn’t enough, Year 2 is where highly efficient players like Achane tend to see the biggest spike in weighted opportunities. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to roster a league-winner because you’re worried about a 32-year-old veteran with his own lengthy injury history. Achane is a must-have running back in 2024.
Opportunity share
Year 1 Year 2
Jaylen Warren 25.4% 43.1%
Aaron Jones 39.1% 56.9%
Alvin Kamara 38.5% 58.7%
James Cook 31.2% 62.4%
De’Von Achane 40.6% ❓❓— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 21, 2024
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
It didn't take long for Spears to make a splash in the preseason. In Week 1, he showcased the elusiveness we saw last season on this touchdown run:
Tyjae Spears for SIX.
📱: Stream #SFvsTEN on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/6kgxvfCtTI
— NFL (@NFL) August 10, 2024
The Titans replaced Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard this season. Head coach Brian Callahan has continued to say he views Pollard and Spears as 1a/1b. They’re interchangeable backs with similar skill sets and the Titans are keen on utilizing a hot-hand approach. That’s good news for Spears, who was fourth in Juke Rate (26.3%), fifth in yards created per touch (4.6), and sixth in yards per touch (5.5) as a rookie.
Spears’ 0.9 fantasy points per opportunity was 13th best among running backs in 2023. What will make him valuable once again this season is his ability as a receiver. He had 70 targets on a 51.2% route participation rate last season. He followed that up with a 50% route participation rate in his first preseason game, albeit a very small sample size. Pollard had more touches, but just a 33% route participation rate in that game.
Don’t forget, this guy had a higher yards after contact per attempt in his collegiate career than Bijan Robinson. He followed that up with a respectable 3.2 yards after contact per attempt as a rookie.
Yards after contact/att (college career)
Tyjae Spears: 4.54
Bijan Robinson: 4.40
Jonathan Brooks: 4.13
Audric Estime: 4.05
Trey Benson: 3.97
De’Von Achane: 3.93
Kendre Miller: 3.83
Bucky Irving: 3.81
Braelon Allen: 3.66
Zach Charbonnet: 3.54
Jahmyr Gibbs: 3.53
Blake Corum: 3.04— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 25, 2024
His rushing efficiency, as well as his opportunities in the passing game, make him a must-have running back in 2024. And if anything were to happen to Pollard, Spears has what we call "contingency upside" to enter into the top-10 running back conversation.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Yes, he’s almost 30 years old, but did you see what Jones did at the end of last season when he was finally healthy? Including the playoffs, he averaged 17.9 PPR fantasy points per game. During a full season, that would have been good for RB4 in 2023. However, injuries did play a part, and that factors into his RB19 Yahoo! ranking in 2024. He dealt with a hamstring strain and a knee injury most of last season. But as we saw, he was still very productive when healthy and given the opportunities.
Despite the injuries, he didn’t fall off much from an efficiency standpoint last season. He was still 14th in yards per touch (5.2) and 15th in yards created per touch (3.76). Those numbers were similar to his 2022 numbers in which he finished as an RB1 despite scoring just seven total touchdowns on 285 opportunities.
Some think Ty Chandler will make this close to a 50/50 split in 2024. After listening to offensive coordinator Wes Phillips speak about Jones, it’s hard to imagine that being the case.
#Vikings OC Wes Phillips on Aaron Jones as a weapon in the pass game, his goal line usage, and Jones’ football IQ: pic.twitter.com/SCd98A3AqG
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 31, 2024
According to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, we should expect somewhere between 15-18 touches per game for Jones as the 1A, with Chandler operating as the 1B. For what it’s worth, Jones averaged 16 touches per game in 2022 when he finished as an RB1. This season, he’s going as the RB19. Buy the dip on a very underrated running back who will be used in high-value situations this season for the Vikings. Check out what percentage of his opportunities have come in the form of targets from 2018 to 2022:
Aaron Jones percentage of opportunities that have been targets
2022 - 25.3%
2021 - 27.5%
2020 - 23.9%
2019 - 22.4%
2018 - 20.8%This guy will be a top-10 RB in PPR leagues once again in 2023, yet he’s being ranked RB15 in a lot of places
In fact, I’d be ok with Jones as my RB1 pic.twitter.com/YRh73gDWt8
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 3, 2023
In 2023, that number was still 23.2%. That's extremely valuable in fantasy football. So Jones, despite his age, is a must-have running back at cost in 2024.
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