Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis: Week 13 Doubleheader

Thanks to the thrice-delayed Steelers and Ravens matchup in Week 12, we get to witness another Monday Night doubleheader this week. The first game up on the slate will be a matchup between division leaders in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Football Team. Washington enters this game on a two-game winning streak while facing a Pittsburgh team that comes in looking to continue towards a perfect season. Pittsburgh will look to keep their undefeated streak alive against a Washington team that has relied upon their run game. Each team plays to the strength of their opponent, which should make this a more interesting matchup than it looks like on paper.

The second game will take place between the Bills and the recently displaced 49ers. This game will be played in Arizona thanks to an ordinance that doesn’t allow the 49ers to play in their home stadium. The 49ers notched an impressive win against the Rams last week thanks to a big performance from Deebo Samuel. They will get Brandon Aiyuk back as well this week, which will be one of the first times those two have been together on the same field. Buffalo has won four of their last five games thanks to the continued growth of Josh Allen. The only loss they had was the miraculous Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins two weeks ago.

While the circumstances surrounding this game aren’t the best, at least we get to watch some more football on Monday, which is never a bad thing. There are playoff implications on the line for all four of these teams (although San Francisco is fading fast), which makes it one of the more interesting Monday nights in recent weeks.

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Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers 

• Game time: Monday 12/7 @ 5:00 PM EST
• Game line: Pittsburgh -8.0
• Over/Under: 42

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (played in Glendale, Arizona)

• Game time: Monday 12/7 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: EVEN
• Over/Under: 47.5

Must-Starts

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

As mentioned above, Ben Roethlisberger is having an excellent season in both real and fantasy football. Roethlisberger is currently the QB10 in fantasy leagues thanks to 209.3 points scored in 11 games. Roethlisberger has nine games with multiple passing touchdowns and seven games where he threw for zero interceptions. Roethlisberger isn’t throwing up gaudy numbers through the air with only six games over 250 yards passing, but he is throwing the ball plenty. Big Ben has 10 games with over 30 passing attempts, six games with 40 passing attempts, and one game with 50 throws.

Washington has done well as a team against opposing quarterbacks this season, averaging 16.9 points per week to quarterbacks this season. The Steelers have a strong offensive line and have been using quick throws to keep Big Ben upright, so he will likely give Washington all they can handle in the secondary.

Nick Mullens (QB, SF)

Nick Mullens has been adequate since taking over after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury completing 67.5% of his passes for 1,642 yards and six touchdowns with seven interceptions. In fairness to him, the 49ers have been navigating the NFC West with a litany of injuries and COVID quarantines, so he could play better now that he has some actual talent around him. In his last three games, Mullens has thrown the ball at least 35 times and exceeded 247 passing yards. He has two touchdowns and four interceptions in that time frame. Mullens didn’t throw for a touchdown last week against the strong Rams Defense, but that isn’t something we can necessarily hold against him.

Mullens will look to utilize Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk’s yards after the catch ability in Week 13 against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo ranks as the 27th defense in fantasy football against quarterbacks this year, surrendering 20.1 points per game to the position on the year. Despite having a solid secondary, Buffalo has given up a 16 to 8 touchdown to interception ratio on the year. Look for the 49ers to utilize their receivers to get the ball out fast and let them do some damage this week to keep up with Buffalo’s offense.

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

Josh Allen disappointed fantasy gamers in a game that we all expected to be a shootout in Week 12 against the Chargers. Allen threw for only 157 yards and a touchdown with an interception but added nine rushes for 32 yards and an additional score. Allen missed a little time during the game due to ankle and knee injuries but was able to finish and secure the win for Buffalo. On the season, Allen is currently the QB4 thanks to an average of 24.13 points scored per week. Allen has done more damage with his arm than his legs throughout this season, but he still offers excellent upside. The 49ers have been strong this season, allowing just 16.9 fantasy points per week to quarterbacks on the year. With that being said, Allen has been just too good to avoid and is an automatic start regardless of matchup this season.

Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)

There were plenty of questions about Antonio Gibson’s ability to handle an NFL workload as a running back since he split time in the Memphis backfield with several other rushers and primarily factored as a wide receiver. So far, he has silenced his doubters. Gibson has scored 11 times as a rookie in just 139 rushing attempts. Gibson has three consecutive games with double-digit carries and two games with at least 94 yards. Gibson also logged a career-high seven targets in Week 12 against Dallas, catching five passes for 21 yards. The one risk with Gibson is his role tends to decrease in games where Washington falls behind with J.D. McKissic taking over as the passing game back.

The Steelers will be the most difficult challenge that Antonio Gibson will have faced in his extremely successful rookie season. Pittsburgh has allowed just 877 yards rushing this season (4.0 yards per carry) and six touchdowns on the season to running backs. Their 13.9 points per game allowed are the second-best mark in fantasy football in the year.

Raheem Mostert (RB, SF)

There is some inherent risk in trying to figure out the San Francisco backfield, but in the weeks he is healthy you can rely on Mostert getting the majority of the carries. In Week 12’s matchup against the Rams, Mostert tallied 16 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions for zero yards. Mostert has only played in five games this season but has double-digit touches in all of them. He has four games with at least 50 rushing yards and averages just under three targets per game. While he has competed with Jeff Wilson, Jerick McKinnon, and Tevin Coleman for playing time at various parts of the year, it is clear that the 49ers' offense treats him as their lead ball carrier.

Buffalo has struggled against good running backs this season, allowing them to score 19.6 points per week in fantasy football. Running backs are averaging 4.56 yards per carry this season and have 10 touchdowns on the year. They have done well containing pass-catching backs, but that isn’t Mostert’s game for San Francisco this season. He has the speed to pop a big run at a moment's notice, making him a must start if you’ve held on to him this long.

Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)

Diontae Johnson isn’t the most explosive of the Steelers’ wide receivers, but he is a lock to lead the team in targets which gives him the highest floor of all the Pittsburgh options. Johnson has double-digit targets in every game he has been healthy this season. He has seven games with at least six receptions and has only failed to reach 50 receiving yards in one of those contests. The second-year receiver typically relies on longer receptions to get into the end zone (only four touchdowns on 57 receptions) but gets enough yards and receptions to be playable no matter what in PPR leagues.

Washington has been strong against wide receivers this season, allowing a second-best mark of 18.2 points per game to the position this season. Washington Football Team has given up only 1,552 yards and seven touchdowns on the year, both of which are top-four marks for secondaries on the season. Johnson has been matchup proof this season thanks to his volume and that should continue Monday night.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)

Juju Smith-Schuster has finally bounced back after a midseason lull that had fantasy managers frustrated with his role in the Pittsburgh passing game. Since Week 6, Juju has caught 43 of 56 passes for 378 yards and three touchdowns. In those six games, Juju is averaging 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, 63 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns. He has also established himself as Ben Roethlisberger’s primary read in the red zone, giving him touchdown upside nearly every week. Of the three Pittsburgh wide receivers, Smith-Schuster will likely see the easiest coverage thanks to his usage out of the slot.

Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)

Of the three receivers in the Pittsburgh passing attack, Claypool has the most boom-or-bust to his game this season. However, since Week 8 he has earned a steady role in the passing game and made the most of it. In his last five games, Claypool has caught 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards and four touchdowns. He offers a vertical speed presence that is needed in the Pittsburgh passing attack and has the bonus of being used in the run game on jet sweeps inside the five-yard line.

Claypool will likely see a healthy dose of Ronald Darby in this week’s game, which isn’t the best matchup given how well he has played this season. With that being said, Claypool only needs to shake free of coverage once to have a big game and is a big body that can be utilized in the red zone.

Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)

Terry McLaurin is dangerously close to entering the conversation for one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in just his second year in the league. Despite a rotating cast of average quarterbacks, McLaurin is still the WR9 in PPR leagues thanks to his massive target share. While the WFT wideout doesn’t have the touchdown receptions of his counterparts, he gets his points in a different variety of ways. McLaurin has at least seven targets in every game this season. He has at least 60 receiving yards in 10 of his 11 starts this season. McLaurin has had seven receptions in five of his last six games. The only game he truly struggled this season was against Jalen Ramsey and the LA Rams, which is understandable.

Despite their reputation as one of the top defenses in football, Pittsburgh has been surprisingly inefficient against opposing wide receivers. The Steelers are allowing 22.9 points per game to the position on the year and have given up 14 receiving touchdowns, tied with the Buccaneers and Bengals for the fourth-highest mark in the league. Given his role as the only receiver of note in Washington, McLaurin is essentially a matchup-proof option weekly in fantasy leagues.

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

Stefon Diggs has used sure hands and a ridiculous target share to rank as the WR14 for the 2020 fantasy season. Diggs has caught 80 of his 110 targets for 945 yards but has only been able to find paydirt four times this season. In his first season playing for Buffalo, Diggs has at least six targets in every game. Only once has he had less than six catches. Week 12 was only the first time this season he failed to reach 45 receiving yards. Regardless of his matchup, Diggs is a legitimate threat to have big weeks thanks to the trust Josh Allen has in him to get open and catch the football.

San Francisco has had a solid year against wide receivers this season, allowing just 21.7 points per week to the position. Their 1,619 receiving yards surrendered on the season ranks as the sixth-best mark this season, but they are in a massive tie for the 10th most passing touchdowns surrendered to wideouts this year with 12. Both Jason Verrett and Richard Sherman have had solid years this year, but Diggs’ consistent volume in the passing game locks him in as a start this week.

Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)

Deebo Samuel reasserted himself as the WR1 in San Francisco with a massive game against the stout Rams’ secondary. Samuel caught 11 of 13 targets for 133 yards against the Rams in Week 12 but was matched up primarily against Troy Hill because of his role in the slot. The second-year wide receiver doesn’t do much of his damage down the field, but his ability to generate yards after the catch with physical running is what separates him from his peers. According to playerprofiler.com, Samuel had only eight air yards against the Rams, which means he was catching a lot of screen passes and doing work with them afterward. As a matter of fact, in his last three games, Samuel has -32, -10, and 8 air yards.

Samuel figures to see a steady diet of the shell of Josh Norman on him against Buffalo, which has him poised for another big day. Buffalo allows wide receivers to score 21.7 points per game against them in fantasy thanks to 1,700 yards and 10 touchdowns on 139 receptions.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

If Deebo Samuel is getting most of his yardage after the catch, that means that Brandon Aiyuk is doing his damage down the field. Aiyuk was starting to emerge as one of the top rookie wide receivers before missing two games due to a stint on the COVID list. In his last two games (Weeks 8 and 10), Aiyuk took on the target lead without George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in the lineup. Aiyuk was targeted 24 times, catching 15 passes for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Thankfully, we also have a small sample size to draw from to understand the impact of Deebo Samuel’s return on Aiyuk. In Weeks 4-7, both players were on the field. In that time, Aiyuk averaged 5.3 targets, 3.3 receptions, and 47.3 yards per game. Aiyuk had his best game in Week 7, catching six of seven passes for 115 yards. Ultimately, both players can co-exist and have success in the 49ers' passing game.

Aiyuk will likely draw more of Tre’Davious White’s attention in this game, which could cap his ceiling. But given Kyle Shanahan’s creativity and Aiyuk’s explosiveness, he should see enough work in the passing game to have a big day.

Eric Ebron (TE, PIT)

Eric Ebron has been a relatively solid tight end option his first year in Pittsburgh (yes, I know the tight end position itself is a pit of sadness). In his last four games, Ebron is averaging 7.5 targets and four receptions a game. He has turned that target share into 150 yards and 2 touchdowns, which are strong enough statistics to make him the TE2 in that time. Ebron is highly inefficient with his targets (he only has a 62.7% catch rate and still suffers from a bad case of untimely drops), but his workload in the passing game is pretty locked in at this point.

As good as Washington is at stopping wide receivers, they are almost equally as bad against tight ends. Washington is allowing 8.2 points per week to tight ends, which ranks as the 12th most points surrendered to the position this season. Tight ends have 539 yards and six touchdowns on the year against the football team. Given the state of the tight end position, Ebron has seemingly worked his way into a weekly set and forget at the position.

Consider Sitting

Alex Smith (QB, WAS)

Alex Smith has been statistically underwhelming in his tenure as the Washington starter despite their winning record. Smith has 705 passing yards and two touchdowns and two interceptions since Week 10. His entire game is centered around getting the ball out quick as evidenced by his 6.65 passing yards per attempt. Unfortunately, the WFT’s don’t have many great players who generate yards after the catch, which limits Smith’s upside as a passer. If Pittsburgh can jump out to a lead, the WFT’s aren’t afraid to let Smith air it out. In his two games trailing (he took over for an injured Kyle Allen in Week 9), Smith averaged 43.5 attempts and threw for 357.5 yards. In their most recent wins, Smith has thrown the ball just 25.5 times and averaged 157.5 yards. This will likely be a game he is throwing from behind.

The Steelers have been the best defense in fantasy football against opposing quarterbacks this season. They have as many interceptions as touchdowns surrendered (16) and are allowing a scant 13.4 fantasy points per game to the position. Pittsburgh is 3rd overall in passing yards allowed (2,405) and has generated the most sacks in the league this season (41) by five.

James Conner (RB, PIT)

This selection comes with an asterisk since we don’t know if James Conner will be cleared to play by the time this game kicks off. Even if Conner does play, he is probably safer on your bench for a week than in your starting lineup. Despite the Pittsburgh offense looking explosive, Conner has functioned as a solid RB2 this season. He is currently the RB17 in PPR leagues, but RB24 in PPR points per game. Conner is behind names like Todd Gurley, Mike Davis, David Montgomery, and Kenyan Drake when it comes to his average points per week. On the season, Conner has done well against teams that struggle to contain the run. He has struggled to make an impact plays against tougher fronts this year. Ignoring his Week 1 performance where he left the game with an injury, Conner has nearly as many games under 3.5 yards per carry (4) as he does games with over 4 yards per carry (5). Conner does have a consistent role in the passing game, but with three excellent wide receivers and a solid tight end siphoning touches from him, he has hardly been impressive.

Washington is currently the sixth-best defense in fantasy football against running backs this season. Washington is allowing 3.9 yards per carry on the season and have only allowed five rushing touchdowns. They are giving up an average of 15.5 points per game to the position. Conner’s status heading into this week is iffy, but even if he does play the bench may be the best place for him on your fantasy squad.

Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT)

If Conner does play then Benny Snell isn’t even worth a spot on your fantasy roster. Snell has only three games above a 20% snap share on offense and two of them came in games where James Conner was either injured or out for the week. In his start last week, Snell handled 16 carries for 60 yards while adding three receptions for 33 yards.

Snell is more of a grinder than anything and doesn’t have the explosive ability to consistently make big plays, which limits his upside unless he is getting massive value on the ground. Since Washington has a stout front seven, it is risky using him regardless of Conner’s status this week.

Zack Moss (RB, BUF)

Despite seeing a consistent role in the offense, Zack Moss has struggled to make an impact in the back half of his rookie season. Since a big game against New England in Week 8 (14 carries for 81 yards and two touchdowns) Moss has just 25 carries for 97 yards and one touchdown while adding five receptions for 36 yards in the passing game. It has been tough sledding for the rookie out of Utah, especially since he gives up a lot of work to Josh Allen inside the five-yard line which should be his bread and butter. Despite that, Moss has played at least 53% of the offensive snaps since Week 8.

The 49ers have navigated a slew of injuries to remain one of the top defenses against the run this season. They currently rank 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to the running back position with 15.9 points per game. San Francisco is fifth in rushing yards allowed (792) and tied for fourth in the least rushing touchdowns surrendered on the year (6).

Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)

Devin Singletary is the compliment to Zack Moss and is still playing over 40% of the offensive snaps each week. Singletary doesn’t factor in much on the ground, averaging just 7.8 carries per game since Week 7, but does have a fairly consistent role in the passing game. In his last five games, Singletary has 10 receptions on 15 targets for 72 yards. Of the two backs, Singletary is the more explosive option, but he is giving up a considerable amount of work in the run game. Regardless, both backs are too risky to utilize unless you’re desperate.

Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)

Logan Thomas has functioned as the WFT’s second receiver this year thanks to his consistent value throughout the season. Thomas has caught 34 of his 60 targets for 328 yards and four touchdowns. He has been targeted at least four times in every game this season. Despite that consistent workload, Thomas is just the TE17 in PPR leagues this year in a year where the tight end has been a dumpster fire. That standing won’t likely improve this week with the Steelers ranking as the top defense against tight ends this season.

Pittsburgh has allowed the third-fewest receptions (36), yards (364), and the fewest touchdowns (1) to tight ends on the season. Their 4.1 points per week given up to tight ends rank as the least in the league this year. Avoid Thomas and stream the position in Week 13.

Potential Sleepers

J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS)

Like it or not, J.D. McKissic has a defined role in the Washington Football Team offense. McKissic has received at least 50% of the WFT’s offensive snaps in seven of 11 games this season. He also has two games with double-digit targets and four additional games where he saw at least five targets.

McKissic sees his lightest workload in games where Washington is in control of the game and needs to run the clock and has his biggest games when Washington needs to be in their passing game and playing catch up. If you believe Pittsburgh can get a big lead early in the game, then McKissic has appeal and upside this week, primarily in PPR leagues.

Anthony McFarland (RB, PIT)

If James Conner plays, then Anthony McFarland won’t see the field. But if Conner is out, McFarland will carve out a minor role in the offense. Against Baltimore, McFarland had three carries for nine yards but also added a 17-yard reception on his only target. McFarland hasn’t had a single game this season with more than a 20% snap share in the Pittsburgh offense, but he is easily the most explosive back that the Steelers have in their backfield. He is the definition of a desperation play, but he is also the most likely rusher to have a big run or catch that finds the end zone. Only use him in the direst straits.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF)

Jerick McKinnon was relegated to a minor role in the 49ers' offense against the Rams thanks to a lead and the return of Raheem Mostert. In Weeks 9 and 10, McKinnon led the backfield with 30 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown while adding seven receptions for 56 yards. After the Week 11 bye, McKinnon played just 25% of the offensive snaps and carried the ball three times for 21 yards while adding two receptions for 11 yards. He was out-touched by both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson as the 49ers tried to run the clock to win the game. Kyle Shanahan is always unpredictable when it comes to his backfield usage, so McKinnon always has solid upside. If the Bills can get out to a big lead, McKinnon could see himself take over a featured role as the pass-catching option on Monday. If you need a big day, he has RB2 appeal this week.

Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)

With John Brown on the injured reserve for the next few weeks, Gabriel Davis has taken the role of the vertical pass-catching threat. Davis caught three of his four targets for 79 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers in Week 12. The rookie from Central Florida has had an up-and-down season but has been able to carve out a solid role whenever Brown is injured during a game or misses a week. Davis saw 97% of the team’s snaps in Week 12 and will likely be on the field just as much in Week 13. He only needs one big play to make a major impact in fantasy.

Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)

Usually, Cole Beasley is reliable when John Brown misses time, soaking up targets in the short to intermediate parts of the field to keep the chains moving. He provided an underwhelming stat line in Week 12, catching just two of four passes for 25 yards, although he did add a 20-yard touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis. Beasley has two games with 11 receptions and over 100 yards this season, which gives him excellent upside. As a whole, Beasley has nine games with at least four targets. If Verrett and Richard Sherman can remove Stefon Diggs from the gameplan, then Beasley could be poised to have a big Monday night game.

Jordan Reed (TE, SF)

Jordan Reed is the defacto TE1 in San Francisco with George Kittle nursing an injury. In the last two weeks, Reed has caught seven of 12 targets for 80 yards and played at least 43% of the offensive snaps for the 49ers. In his first game taking over for Kittle in Week 2, Reed saw eight targets and converted them for seven receptions, 50 yards, and two touchdowns. Reed certainly has boom or bust potential with the 49ers' offense getting Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk back, but he is worth a play against a defense that has allowed six touchdown receptions and the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends on the season.

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