Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis: Rams vs Bears

After salivating over the high scoring potential of fast-paced offenses last week, Week 7’s Monday night matchup feels downright underwhelming. The Bears (5-1) and Rams (4-2) both come in with winning records and early season playoff aspirations. Both teams feature stout defenses, so this game may be more of a slugfest than a shootout. However, there is still optimism that this week’s game can provide some solid fantasy upside.

The Bears are leading the NFC North under a game managing quarterback (Nick Foles) and a suffocating defense. The Bears have an alpha wide receiver in Allen Robinson and an emerging bell-cow running back in David Montgomery (thanks to the Tarik Cohen ACL injury). Jimmy Graham also has some solid fantasy value this season… but that is about it.

On the other side, the Rams have more weapons in the receiving game (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett), but have a quarterback that can’t always fully utilize those tools. The Rams also have a completely unpredictable three-headed rushing attack, led by second-year running back Darrell Henderson. Long-time Ram Malcolm Brown is also guaranteed to see consistent snaps and Cam Akers could also siphon carries depending on how the game goes.

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Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams

• Game time: Monday 10/26 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Los Angeles -6.0
• Over/Under: 44.5

Must-Starts

David Montgomery (RB, CHI)

It isn’t always pretty, but David Montgomery is functioning as a true bell-cow back in the absence of Tarik Cohen. Since Week 4, Montgomery has logged over 80% of the offensive snaps for the Bears. He has carried the ball 39 times for 114 yards (2.9 yards per carry) and a touchdown. More importantly, he has seen his target share grow immensely. The second-year back has been targeted 19 times, catching 14 passes 99 yards.

The Rams Defense is allowing 16.9 fantasy points per game to running backs thanks to 547 rushing yards and two touchdowns along with 305 receiving yards and a score. Based on volume alone, Montgomery is a must-start and has definite touchdown upside if the Bears can get into goal-line situations.

Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR)

Trying to predict the Rams’ backfield is terrifying from a fantasy analysis standpoint. The Rams haven’t been afraid to utilize a three-headed committee approach at various points throughout the season, rotating between Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers depending on game situations and health. Thus far, the most productive back has been Darrell Henderson.

The second-year Memphis product has carried the ball 72 times for 348 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and three touchdowns this season. He has also added seven receptions on 11 targets for 92 yards and a score through the air. Henderson has four games this season with double-digit carries, including two in the Rams’ last two games. The Bears Defense has been weak against the run this season allowing 578 yards and five rushing touchdowns this season. Like the Rams, they are allowing 16.9 fantasy points per game. Despite the uncertainty in the Rams backfield, Henderson seems like the safest starting option.

Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)

If you want consistency out of the wide receiver position, you’ll find no one better than Allen Robinson in 2020. Robinson has seen at least nine targets in each game this season. Robinson has also had an eruption since Nick Foles took the helm at quarterback. Since Week 4, Robinson has seen 35 targets, catching 22 passes for 244 yards and a touchdown. In that time, he has seen matchups with the Colts, Buccaneers, and Panthers, three solid secondaries.
The Rams defense has been stellar against wide receivers this season, allowing a league-best 16.3 fantasy points per week to wideouts this year. The Rams feature Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best cornerback in the NFL today. Ramsey hasn’t been shadowing receivers this year, which could allow Robinson to accrue stats against lesser corners. Regardless, a receiver who is averaging over nine targets per game needs to be a staple in any fantasy lineup.

Robert Woods (WR, LAR)

On the other side of things, Robert Woods has continued to be one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL today. Woods is currently the WR13 in PPR formats, averaging 15.3 points per week. Woods has seen at least five targets in every game this season and has at least four catches in five of six contests. The Bears are nearly as suffocating as the Rams in the secondary, allowing only 971 yards and a touchdown to wide receivers this year and 17.4 points per week in fantasy points per game. The Bears don’t rotate corners, but both Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson have been solid in coverage this season. Like Robinson, Woods is a must-start based on target share alone.

Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)

Cooper Kupp is also a must start at wide receiver for the Rams based on his consistent work in the passing game. Kupp has been targeted at least seven times per game in each of the last four weeks. In that time, he is averaging 5.5 receptions and 63.25 yards. He also has two touchdowns in that span. Kupp has always been Jared Goff’s safety blanket in the passing game and has looked great over a year removed from his ACL surgery.
Kupp functions primarily out of the slot, which is where the Bears secondary is its weakest. Buster Skrine is a solid option but could easily be beaten by Kupp given his acumen from the inside receiver position. Start Kupp if you have him.

Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI)

For as much criticism as the Bears got for Jimmy Graham’s contract during the 2020 offseason, he sure has delivered so far this year. Graham has compiled 36 targets, catching 22 passes for 203 yards and four touchdowns. Since Nick Foles has taken the helm, Graham is averaging six targets, four receptions, and just over 33 yards a game. He has also scored a touchdown in that span. Graham has also had a consistent role in the Bears offense this season, playing at least 60% of the offensive snaps for Chicago in 2020.

The Rams have been an average team against tight ends this season, allowing 8.8 fantasy points per week to the position this year. Despite that solid mark, The Rams have allowed four receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year, the fourth-highest mark of 2020. Matt Nagy likes drawing up plays for his tight ends in the red zone, giving Jimmy Graham weekly touchdown upside.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

Tyler Higbee has been a pretty big disappointment relative to the end of his 2019 season and this year’s preseason. Through six games, Higbee has caught 18 of 21 targets for 222 yards and three touchdowns. While those stats don’t look terrible, a majority of them came back in Week 2 against the Eagles. That being said, Higbee does have weekly upside considering he has seen at least four targets in four games this season. Despite underwhelming stats thus far, Higbee still ranks as the TE8 in PPR leagues this season thanks to averaging 10 points per week.
The Bears are slightly better than the Rams against tight ends this season, letting up only 7.8 points per week this season. Given the desolate wasteland the tight end position is, you have to start Higbee given his target floor and his ability to have big games.

Consider Sitting

Jared Goff (QB, LAR)

Jared Goff has served his role in fantasy as a top-15 QB with matchup specific QB1 upside. Goff is completing 67% of his passes while throwing for 1,570 yards and 10 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Goff has three games this season with at least 275 yards passing and has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four different contests. However, Goff has failed to surpass 200 yards passing twice this season, including last week against the Giants.
Goff has plenty of ability and weapons on offense but finds himself matched up against the toughest fantasy defense against quarterbacks in 2020. Chicago is allowing 11.7 points per week to quarterbacks and has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns allowed (4) this season. In his career, Jared Goff has only completed 31 of 62 passes for 353 yards and zero touchdowns (with five interceptions) against the Bears. Tread lightly before utilizing him as a fill-in for bye weeks or injuries this week.

Nick Foles (QB, CHI)

Chicago is 5-1 during 2020, including a 2-1 record since Nick Foles took over (you could say he is 3-1 given the fact that he single-handedly brought them back against the Falcons). Despite that, Foles has been very underwhelming since taking over. The Bears signal-caller has yet to throw for more than 250 yards in any game this season and has three consecutive games with one touchdown and one interception. Thus far, the Bears have relied on Foles as a game manager and used their stout defense to keep winning.

The positives for Foles this week? The Bears have thrown the ball at least 39 times since Foles has taken over for Mitchell Trubisky. The Rams have been average against opposing quarterbacks this season, allowing 1,388 passing yards and eight touchdowns this season. They have generated only four interceptions and are giving up an average of 17.7 points per week to the position this year. There are certainly better options than Foles this week (and every week this season).

Malcolm Brown (RB, LAR)

The Rams’ usage of Malcolm Brown has been the bane of many fantasy player’s existences this season. Brown has logged at least 38% of the offensive snaps for Los Angeles this season. He has at least seven carries in five games this year and has logged at least four targets in three games this season. Of all of the available options for the Rams, Brown is the longest-tenured but least explosive option they could use. He is also the one that head coach Sean McVay seems to trust the most.

Stay away from Brown against the Bears. As previously mentioned, Chicago is allowing just 16.9 fantasy points per week to running backs this season. Historically, if an RB is going to rack up points against them, it is going to require a more explosive player. Brown does have a chance to fall into the endzone but comes into Week 7 as a total boom or bust option at RB.

Potential Sleepers

Cam Akers (RB, LAR)

Between a solid performance in Week 5 (9 carries for 61 yards against Washington) and quotes from Sean McVay vowing to utilize Akers more in the run game, Week 6 seemed poised to be the rookie’s coming out party. What followed was a loss against the 49ers where Akers logged just one snap and zero statistics. 2020 has been a disappointment so far for the second-round draft pick out of Florida State.

Akers is an extremely risky play given his lack of production this year and the fact that a negative game script (like when the Rams trailed the 49ers all game) can remove him completely from the game plan. If the Rams can get a lead against the Bears, we may see Akers utilized to give breathers to Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown. Akers is nothing more than a volatile FLEX play until he shows that he can stay on the field regardless of the score.

Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)

Darnell Mooney seems to be on the brink of an eruption. Mooney has entrenched himself as the unquestioned WR2 in Chicago by logging at least a 60% snap share in every week since week 2. During that time, Mooney has seen 27 targets, catching 15 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown. Mooney has been targeted at least five times in the last four games and has been just a couple of missed throws away from multiple touchdowns during that time frame.

Mooney is a very sneaky boom or bust play. He has legitimate vertical speed and a target share that suggests the Bears aren’t afraid to dial up plays for him. The Rams will rightfully focus on stopping Allen Robinson, which could give Mooney the pass he needs to have a monster game.

Anthony Miller (WR, CHI)

After finishing 2019 strong, Anthony Miller received considerable hype in the fantasy community as a strong middle-round WR that would provide weekly upside. So far, that has not come to fruition. Through six games, Miller has as many games playing less than 50% of the Bears snaps as he does playing a majority of the offensive snaps for Chicago. He has at least three targets in every game this season but has failed to surpass 30 receiving yards in four contests. Miller typically operates out of the slot, so he should avoid any Jalen Ramsey coverage. If the Bears get behind early and are forced to pass, Miller has a solid enough target floor that could see him find the end zone.

Gerald Everett (TE, LAR)

Gerald Everett isn’t the primary tight end in Los Angeles (he has played in less than 50% of the Rams’ offensive snaps in five of six games), but he has been usable the last two weeks for the Rams. In Weeks 5 and 6, Everett was targeted eight times, catching seven passes for 117 yards. He will struggle to have a major impact in the passing game as long as Higbee is around. However, he is a good enough athlete to take a short to intermediate pass to the house and has the size to be a red-zone threat.

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