RADIO
Week 7 is here with a vengeance. Bye weeks and injuries are ravaging fantasy lineups everywhere, forcing fantasy managers to make uncomfortable decisions between two lackluster options. After a string of awesome Monday night football games, it feels like this one is bound to disappoint while delivering some fantasy headaches. The Seahawks come into this game with huge injuries to Russell Wilson and Chris Carson while the Saints are running a methodical grinding offense that just isn’t very fun to watch.
New Orleans comes into this game with a 3-2 record and fresh off their bye week. Jameis Winston has been good for New Orleans (but bad for fantasy) so far in 2021, completing 70 of 116 passes for 892 yards and 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions. The Saints’ offense this season flows through Alvin Kamara. Kamara is on pace to set personal bests as a rusher this season. Through five games, he has 94 attempts for 368 yards and a touchdown. He’s also a consistent factor in the receiving game, leading the Saints with 22 targets, 15 receptions, 113 yards, and three receiving touchdowns. Marquez Callaway functions as Winston’s primary perimeter weapon with 13 receptions on 21 targets for 222 yards and three scores. There isn’t much to get excited about outside of these players for the Saints’ offense.
Meanwhile, Seattle comes into this game in need of a win if they are going to salvage their season. Unfortunately, that is easier said than done without Russell Wilson. Seattle kept it close against the Steelers on Sunday night, ultimately losing 23-20. The Seahawks played well, but lacked big plays and ultimately came up short. Geno Smith is doing his best without Russell Wilson, completing 67% of his passes in under two games. Unfortunately, he has turned 33 completions into just 340 yards and two touchdowns. Alex Collins has done well in the backfield replacing Chris Carson, (48 carries for 225 yards and two touchdowns), but he is also heading into this week banged up. Seattle’s offense just isn’t great without Russell Wilson and their defense isn’t strong enough to sustain a drop in production.
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New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Game time: Monday, October, 25th at 8:15 p.m.
Game line: NO -4.5
Game total: 42.5
Must Start
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
2021 has been disappointing for fans yearning for the days of Jameis Winston’s high-volume gunslinging that was the norm during his tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Winston has just one game with more than 24 attempts and over 250 passing yards in the Saints’ new-look offense. Despite the low volume, Winston does have games of four and five passing touchdowns under his belt this season. Odds are the Saints’ didn’t overhaul their offense during the bye week, but given the number of quarterbacks on bye or out this week, Winston has starting upside in Week 7. The Seahawks are allowing 19.1 points per game to quarterbacks this season and have given up 10 passing touchdowns while generating just two interceptions. Winston doesn’t have the volume or rushing upside we like quarterbacks to have, but the pickings are slim and he has shown the ability to rack up touchdowns so far this season.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Alvin Kamara has completely transitioned into a bell-cow running back in the post-Drew Brees era. Kamara has played at least 84% of the Saints’ offensive snaps in his last four games. During that stretch, he totaled 74 carries for 285 yards and a touchdown while adding 12 receptions on 18 targets for 105 yards and two receiving scores. Kamara has four games this season with over 15 carries and at least four targets in four additional games. Tony Jones Jr., Kamara’s backup, is still on the IR and Taysom Hill may still be navigating his way through the concussion he suffered against Washington in Week 5. If Hill plays, he can limit Kamara’s scoring upside. However, Kamara is getting fantastic volume and faces a Seattle front-7 that has allowed the fourth-most points to running backs this season (23.8).
Marquez Callaway (WR, NO)
Marquez Callaway became a fantasy draft darling once it was announced Michael Thomas needed ankle surgery before the season. So far, Callaway has done little to justify that ascent into the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts. Callaway has just 13 receptions for 222 yards and three touchdowns on the season. However, there were positive signs heading into the bye week. The second-year receiver posted consecutive games of an 82% snap share in Weeks 4 and 5, the first times he hit that mark since Week 1. Callaway had his best game of the season in Week 5 against Washington, catching four of eight targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns. After having just 22 yards in his first two games combined, Callaway had at least 40 yards in every game from Weeks 3 through 5. Callaway is the Saints unquestioned second target in the offense after Kamara and finds himself facing a Seattle secondary that allows 26 points per game to wide receivers. Given the six-team bye week in Week 7, Callaway is an interesting option with WR3 or FLEX upside.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
We are limited to a one-game sample size, but D.K. Metcalf looks to be Geno Smith’s primary target in the passing game. Metcalf caught six of seven passes for 58 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Smith ran the offense well and threw the ball 32 times in a negative game script, showing that Seattle isn’t afraid to let him air it out when necessary. Metcalf will likely be on shorter routes to help the new quarterback out during Russell Wilson’s injury, but he has shown the ability to score from anywhere on the field, making him a must-start regardless of who is under center. The Saints are allowing 25.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season despite their reputation as a strong defense.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Unlike Metcalf, Tyler Lockett struggled to produce in his first game with Geno Smith at the helm. Lockett finished Week 6 with just two catches for 35 yards. However, he tied Metcalf in targets (7), showing that he still has a solid floor in Seattle’s passing offense. Lockett will struggle to have the massive ceiling he usually enjoys thanks to Russell Wilson’s deep ball accuracy, but he can still have big games thanks to pure volume playing slot receiver for a weaker armed quarterback. The Saints will likely focus their attention (and Marshon Lattimore) on D.K. Metcalf in Week 7, giving Lockett a better matchup and potential to have the better day on Monday night.
Consider Sitting
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Despite having solid wide receivers at his disposal, it is tough to start Geno Smith on weekly basis. Smith completed 23 of 32 passes on Sunday night against the Steelers but was only able to generate 209 passing yards and one touchdown through the air. Smith did add five carries for 44 yards and a touchdown in that game. Smith doesn’t possess a strong arm, so for him to hit his fantasy ceiling it will need to come via his receivers making big plays after the catch. His rushing upside is interesting, but without touchdowns will likely just be empty yards. The Saints are allowing just 13.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year, the second-best mark in the NFL. If you can avoid starting Smith this week, it is worth it.
Alex Collins (RB, SEA)
Alex Collins has stepped into a high-volume rushing role with Chris Carson’s injury and done the most with it. In his last three games, Collins has amassed 45 carries for 192 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He’s also added five receptions on six targets for 56 yards. Collins was stellar on Sunday night against the Steelers, carrying the ball 20 times for 101 yards and a touchdown. However, he suffered a hip/glute injury during that game, putting his status for Week 7 in doubt. Additionally, Rashaad Penny will likely be good to go this game, putting this backfield workload in flux moving forward. The Saints allow 15.7 points per game to running backs, the 10th fewest in the NFL this season. It may be impossible to avoid using Collins in lineups this week thanks to bye weeks and injuries, but if you have the roster flexibility to do it, it is worth considering.
Adam Trautman (TE, NO)
Adam Trautman was another fantasy football draft darling in the offseason that just hasn’t panned out. From Weeks 3 to 5, Trautman has just three receptions on four targets for 46 yards. The Saints are a run-first, low-volume offense in 2021 and Trautman just isn’t a significant part of their passing attack. Trautman does run plenty of routes and is on the field for a majority of New Orleans’ offensive snaps, but unless he shows that he can get a higher portion of the passing attack, he is not worth rostering, much less starting during a week decimated by the byes.
Potential Sleepers
Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
Rashaad Penny is off of injured reserve and ready to go. Penny injured his calf in Week 1 after posting two carries for eight yards against the Colts. Penny is healthy and it couldn’t come at a better time for Seattle. The Seahawks would love to run the ball without Russell Wilson, but Alex Collins is a bit banged up after a huge workload against the Steelers. Penny could see a decent workload in his first game back but carries considerable risk given his lengthy injury history. Penny has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his career, so the upside is there for him to have a solid day if he gets the touches.
Deonte Harris (WR, NO)
Deonte Harris is a complete boom-or-bust play that operates as Jameis Winston’s primary deep threat in New Orleans. Harris had just one target against Washington in Week 5, but it was a 72-yard bomb for a touchdown. Harris offers little outside of touchdown upside, but Seattle has been prone to giving up big plays downfield and Jameis Winston is never afraid to let the ball loose once or twice a game. Harris shouldn’t be played unless you’re in the direst of straits, but he does have the ability to put up a big number on one play.
Freddie Swain (WR, SEA)
Freddie Swain operates as Seattle’s third wide receiver and has produced mixed results this season. On one hand, he has four games with at least three targets on the season (including each of his last three games). On the other, Swain has just one game over 20 receiving yards. Swain doesn’t offer much of a floor, but he is on the field (65% snap share in 2021) and can get work when defenses focus on D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. The Saints could potentially open up a big lead against Seattle, which would work in Swain’s favor.
Gerald Everett (TE, SEA)
Gerald Everett was touted as a fantasy sleeper at tight end, but it is hard to see that happening without Russell Wilson. Pittsburgh was Everett’s first game after a two-week hiatus (COVID), and he totaled just two receptions on three targets for 40 yards. Everett has functioned as an afterthought in Seattle’s passing attack, but a negative game script with a check-down quarterback could give him a solid floor in Week 7. New Orleans is allowing just 4.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, the fourth-best in 2021. However, a negative game script could give Everett a fantasy viable week with so many alternative options on bye.
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