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Corey Johnson's NFL DFS prop picks for the Packers vs. Vikings Monday Night Football contests. Use these Week 16 recommendations to win on Monkey Knife Fight.
Week 16 Monday Night Football features a matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings. The game will be played in Minnesota, has an implied total of 47.5 points, and a spread of around five points favoring the Vikings. Both offenses offer really some exciting plays on Monkey Knife Fight!
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Pick 1: Over/Under (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Aaron Rodgers OVER 250.5 Passing Yards and Kirk Cousins OVER 249.5 Passing Yards
Both the Vikings Defense and Packers Defense rank below league average in passing yards allowed per game this season and the relatively high game total implies that numerous points will be scored. The "OVER" picks are going to be a theme for this week.
The Vikings Defense has allowed 262.6 passing yards per game this season and of course, Rodgers is not afraid to through the ball as many times as needed to win a game. Rodgers has at least 30 passing attempts in 10 of 15 games this season and as an underdog this week, there is no reason to believe that he won't have at least 30 attempts again. If the Vikings are able to take an early lead, 40+ attempts would be realistic. With that much opportunity, Rodgers has an excellent chance of destroying that 250.5 passing yard mark.
Without Dalvin Cook in the backfield, Cousins is going to have to take charge of this offense. In the last 10 games, Cousins has surpassed 250 passing yards six times and although he hasn't done it in the last two games, his yards per attempt have still be really solid. As long as this game stays relatively close, Cousins will need to throw at least 30 passes in order to beat the Packers without the rushing productivity of Cook. The Packers defense ranks at the bottom of the league in 40+ yard and 20+ yard pass plays allowed this season. They allow nearly one 40+ yard pass play and over 3.5 20+ yard pass plays per game. With 30+ attempts, Cousins should be able to break that 249.5 passing yard mark more often than not.
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Pick 2: Over/Under (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Davante Adams OVER 6.5 Receptions and Mike Boone UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards
In a game that the Packers are underdogs by five points, Adams surpassing 6.5 receptions seems almost too good to be true. In the ten games that Adams has played in this season, he has surpassed 6.5 receptions in six of them and in all but two of those games, he saw at least seven targets. Adams is far and away Rodgers' favorite (and best) target so if the Vikings take a lead, as the implied total suggests, Adams could see upwards of 10-12 targets. With that much opportunity, against a below average defense, Adams should be able to beat that 6.5 reception mark.
Mike Boone will step in for Dalvin Cook this week and will see an increased workload. However, with such limited experience, there is a really good chance that the Vikings don't use him nearly as much as Cook has been used. Rather, the Vikings will lean on Cousins and work C.J. Ham and Ameer Abdullah into the backfield rotation. Boone will likely see around 10-15 carries and as long as he doesn't break off a long one, he will likely stay under that 68.5 rushing yard total.
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Pick 3: Over/Under Fantasy Points (2/3)
Recommended Prop Pick: Davante Adams OVER 18.5 Fantasy Points, Kirk Cousins OVER 18.5 Fantasy Points, and Aaron Rodgers OVER 17.5 Fantasy Points
I know, this isn't the most exciting prop bet and I've already mentioned all three of the players. However, it is props like these that can make you profitable in the long run. This two-for-three prop offers 1.8x your buy in.
I won't go into detail about each player, as I did above, but I will break down why I think this an excellent, user-favored, prop. The Rodgers/Adams stack is one of the more popular ones in the DFS world. Rodgers has a small "target tree" which means he targets Adams heavily nearly every game. MKF is essentially offering an extremely well correlated stack into this one prop bet. Simply put, if Rodgers finds Adams in the end zone, they will both be well on their well to breaking their fantasy point threshold. In addition, as mentioned above, I think Adams will have over 6.5 catches this game and in the PPR format that MKF offers, even without a score he should be close to 18.5 fantasy points.
Also as mentioned, Cousins should be in store for a nice night as Cook is out and the Vikings fight for a division title. If Adams or Rodgers happen to not get to their total in fantasy points, Cousins has just as good of an opportunity to surpass his 18.5 fantasy point mark.
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