RADIO
The NFL has saved the best for last. The Monday Night Football extravaganza in Week 17 is the Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Buffalo Bills. This isn’t just the best MNF matchup of the season. It might be the best NFL game of all.
This hugely-important game matches the No. 6 scoring offense in the Bengals against the No. 2 scoring defense. It pits the Bills’ No. 4 scoring offense against the Bengals’ No. 9 scoring defense. Forget the numbers. This game puts Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs on the same field together for the first time.
It might not be easy to predict who is going to win this intense showdown, but it’s sure going to be fun.
The Line
By anyone’s measure, the Bengals and Bills are two of the very best teams. They are going to be playing well into January or February, and they might be back in Cincinnati. The Bengals have an outside shot of gaining home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they win. Read my article on the playoff implications for Week 17 games to see how it could happen.
You can see it reflected in the odds at various sportsbooks. For example, as I browse FanDuel, I see that both teams have negative odds on the moneyline. Buffalo has -116 odds, while Cincinnati is at -102. That means FanDuel thinks Cincy has a 48.5% chance of winning, and Buffalo has a 53.7% chance, and they are taking a hold of 3.2%. No matter which side you bet on, you won’t get paid back as much as you bet.
However, if you use the SHARP App, you can get a better deal. The SHARP App found Cincinnati at +104 at BetRivers and Buffalo at -115 at DraftKings. The difference between winning on a -102 underdog and a +104 underdog is $6 on a $100 bet.
Would you rather have $104.00 or $98.04? That’s why it is profitable to use the SHARP App to find the best lines.
The SHARP App also found a better line for Cincy. Most books have the Bengals at +1, but the app shows that FanDuel gives CIN +1.5. That half a point is valuable in a game could very well come down to one point.
Analytics
While it would not be surprising for either team to win, the SHARP App’s analytical model favors Buffalo. The Bills have a 61% chance of winning, according to the app, and the predicted spread is BUF -3.5.
I think Buffalo may be the better team on paper, and they have been playing a better season since Week 1. But 3.5 points? That’s giving them a field goal and the hook. Home-field advantage might be down, but it’s still valued at between 1.5 and 2 points, so making Buffalo 3.5 favorites in Cincinnati would mean they are at least 5 points better. That cannot be true.
Over/Under
At 49.5, the over/under is the second-highest total of the weekend. Buffalo games have gone over for two-straight games, but they haven’t played in a game with a total this high since Week 12. Buffalo has had six games with a betting total of 49.5 or more, and only one has gone over. This is the second-highest point total for a Bengals game, and that game went under. Four of the past five Bengals games have gone under.
The sharp betters are, as usual, betting under. While 79% of betting tickets are for over, only 53% of the money is on over. Each individual better who bets under is betting about three to four times as much as one who bets over.
I think what happens in this kind of game is that most people pay attention to the offenses and assume—and even hope—it will be a scoring bonanza. But we forget that both teams have extremely talented defenses and coaches who scheme up stops. The turnaround the Bengals made in the second half of their win over Tampa Bay—from allowing 17 points in the first half to just six in the second—shows how good Cincy is at adapting.
I am picking the game to go under.
My Picks
Both teams are very good. Both quarterbacks are clutch. But I am taking Cincinnati for two reasons: first, they are at home, and second, they don’t turn the ball over as often. The Bengals have only turned the ball over 17 times this season, the sixth-fewest, while the Bills have turned the ball over 24 times, the third-most.
Betting Picks: The Bengals beat the spread (CIN +1.5) and the defenses get enough stops to keep the final score under 49.5.
Last Week's Results: The Chargers dominated, winning 20-3. The Colts didn't do anything to help hit the over. My picks were all on the money.
Season Record: 5-1 vs. spread, 6-0 on the moneyline, 3-3 on points
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