RADIO
The Colts play the stooge in another nationally-televised football game this week. The Los Angeles Chargers come barnstorming into Indianapolis to show off their tricks.
The game has all the playoff implications of a Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals matchup. Yes, the Chargers could get an insurmountable lead in the wild-card race with a win, but they could just as easily write their playoff ticket with a win over the Rams or Broncos in Week 17 or 18, too.
If you bet or watch Monday Night Football, you could be excused for looking ahead to Week 17, an epic showdown between the Bills and the Bengals that might decide the first-round AFC bye. But don’t overlook Week 16. Even though the Chargers are favorites with a 74% chance to win, per the SHARP App, this game is still exciting for bettors. For one thing, you can win a big advantage in this one if you consult the app and follow my recommendations.
Analytical Advantage
The SHARP App gives you the best betting lines on either side from all bookmakers and uses advanced analytical algorithms to give you an edge. The analytics have spotted a significant advantage for betting on the Chargers in this game. Despite the fact that LA has a 74% likelihood of winning, DraftKings only has the Chargers set at a -200 moneyline. DK’s line only represents a 66.6% chance of the Chargers winning.
The payout for winning at -200 is 50%—$50 back for a $100 bet—but a 74% favorite would ordinarily be priced at -285, which would pay out 35%. So you can make 15% more taking the -200 line than you would if you took the line the market would be expected to settle at.
The analytics also shows that the Vegas point spread far underestimates the margin between the two teams. Most books have the Chargers favored by 4.5, but Caesars gives you 4 points. That’s a 4.5-point cushion over what the SHARP App indicates it should be.
Line Movement and Colts QB Change
Since opening at LA -2.5, the line gradually grew to LA -4. Nick Foles was named as the Colts’ starting quarterback on December 21. The news led to a one-point shift from LA -3 to LA -4. Matt Ryan has been one of the worst quarterbacks of 2022. He has a PFF grade of 63.8, 31st best amongst all qualifying signal callers, and an NFELO EPA/game of -1.5, 34th best.
Nick Foles hasn’t played yet this year, but in 2021 when he was a Bears backup, he was costing his team -0.7 points per game--less costly than Matt Ryan's poor play this year. So his ascension to starting QB might not hurt Indy. Foles only threw 35 passes in 2021 and 0 passes this season as a Colt, so what he will bring is really unknown.
Over/Under is Too High
The over/under is a moderate 45.5. In a week with high winds and frigid temperatures, seven games are projected to total less than 40 points scored, making this the fifth-highest projected total of the week. Like most of the high over/unders, this game is also being played indoors. But it still seems too high.
Both teams can put up points. They both have talented receiver cores and one has a competent quarterback who is even at times capable of being elite. But as fantasy managers who drafted Michael Pittman, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, or Keenan Allen can tell you, the season has not been going for either team as they wished it would.
Due to the negative perceptions of both teams’ offenses, the over/under has dropped at a constant rate from last week’s open at 47.5 to its current total. The SHARP App still thinks that it is too high. Its analytics predict the total at 43.
Analysis and Picks
Sixty-one percent of the betters take LA against the spread, and 59% of the money is on LA against the spread. That’s almost as straight as you can get. There’s nothing to be derived from the handles.
I agree with the consensus: the Chargers will win, and they should win by more than 4 (Caesars’ line). It’s tough picking against the Colts because weird things happen in Colts games, but this is an obvious pick. Or, rather, it feels like an obvious pick.
The Chargers have beaten the Titans and Dolphins in the past two weeks. Their defense is finally looking good (while their offense is looking bad). The Colts have lost four straight and allowed 93 points in their past two games.
I trust that in a close game, Coach Saturday’s decisions and Nick Foles’ mistakes will cost the Colts a few points and help put Indy’s losing margin at greater than four.
I think LA’s defense will continue its inspired play. They held Miami and Tennessee both under 300 total yards and 20 points. They held Tua Tagovailoa to 10-out-of-28 passing and 145 yards. I’ll give Indy two touchdowns, and I don’t think LA can score 30+. They have only done so twice this season—in Weeks 4 and 5. That'll put the game total under.
Betting Picks: The Chargers beat the spread (LA -4) and shut down the Colts' offense to keep the game total under 45.5.
Last Week's Results: The Packers controlled the LA Rams all game and won by 12, beating the spread. The game total of 36 was under 39.5. My picks go 3-0 on the week.
Season Record: 4-1 vs. spread, 5-0 on the moneyline, 2-3 on points
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