RADIO
The last time Bill Belichick missed the playoffs two years in a row, Tom Brady was a sophomore at Junípero Serra High School, and Belichick was the coach of Art Modell’s Browns. That was 1993, but it could happen again if the Patriots lose to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.
The Patriots are one game behind the Jets for the seven seed, but the Jets face the Bills this Sunday. A Pats win and a Bills loss would put the Pats in front. If the Pats can’t win on Monday, they will have a tough road to the playoffs. Their final three games are against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills.
The Cardinals are not a particularly tough team, but the Patriots are not juggernauts, either. Who are sharp betters taking in this Week 14 showdown, and what insights can you learn from using the SHARP App? Read on.
The Line
Arizona is 1.5 points underdogs at home. The spread opened the week at ARI +1.5 and fluctuated between ARI +2 and ARI +1 before settling back at the opening line. With the SHARP App, you can find the best line across sportsbooks, so you can see that you can still get a nice ARI +2 line at DraftKings if you want to take the underdog to beat the spread.
The Analytics
According to the SHARP App's models, taking the underdog Cardinals is a bad idea. The SHARP App’s AI predictions put the Patriots at -4.5 favorites. There is a big gap between the betting market and SHARP's model.
The market has settled on a moneyline of NE -126, which implies the Patriots have a 55.8% win probability. The SHARP App found lines with better payouts on both sides: -124 for NE at Barstool Sportsbook and +110 for ARI at SugarHouse.
The SHARP App’s AI model has the Patriots as 64% favorites to win. If you take the Patriots on the moneyline, and they win, you’re getting a 44% premium on the payout at current odds. Barstool’s line of -124 means you’d make $0.81 for each dollar bet, but if the Pats' actual win probability is 64%, then the line should be -178, which would mean betters win just $0.56 on the dollar.
Different analytical models differ in this game. If you watch both teams, you would probably agree that they’re both below average and inconsistent. Much of that stems from inconsistency at quarterback. Kyler Murray has regressed—and has had to deal with injuries to his wide receivers. (DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch are all on the injury report this week.) Mac Jones has not taken a step forward in his second year.
Where the Bets Are
The betters agree with the SHARP App. They also think taking New England winning outright is a good deal. As of Friday evening, 72% of the moneyline bets and 86% of the money is on the Patriots. On the other hand, the betting on the spread is more split.
While 66% are taking the Patriots to beat the spread, 52% of the money is on the Cardinals winning against the spread. With both offenses being inconsistent, under is the favored position. Fifty-nine percent of betters are taking the under, with 76% of the money.
My Picks
The Patriots look like the better team. They have a positive point differential. The Cardinals have a negative differential. The Patriots have beaten two winning teams (the Jets, twice). The Cardinals have an 0-7 record against winning teams. The Patriots are coached by Bill Belichick. The Cardinals are coached by Kliff Kingsbury.
I am picking the Patriots to win and beat the spread. A spread of 1.5 is close enough to a pick-em. Only the Patriots winning by 1 would cause them to miss the spread.
The over-under is the toughest pick. On one side, four of the past five Patriots games have gone under. On the other side, each of the past six Cardinals games has gone over. If the Patriots win, it will most likely be because their defense limits the Cards, so I’m taking the under.
Betting Picks: The Patriots win by more than 1.5, and the game total is under 43.5.
Last Week's Results: Tom Brady didn’t get going soon enough. He came back to win, but only by 1, so the Bucs missed the spread (causing me to lose) but won outright (hurray!).
Season Record: 2-1 vs spread, 3-0 on the moneyline, 0-3 on points
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