RADIO
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football in a battle in the fiercely-contested NFC South.
The Saints (4-8) may be last place in the division, but they are only 1.5 games behind the Bucs (5-6), who are in first.
If the Saints can pull this off, the division almost becomes a toss-up. But if the home favorite Buccaneers win, the Saints are nearly eliminated from the playoffs. The Bucs already beat the Saints in Week 2 and own a better division record.
Analysis
Both teams have struggled to get into a rhythm. The Bucs have the tenth-highest ELO rating (NFELO) and the ninth-best defensive EPA per play, but they can’t string together a good series of games. The Saints were averaging 29.6 points per game between Weeks 4 and 8, but then they suddenly collapsed and have only scored 14 or more points once in the past four games.
Looking at the SHARP App, you can get the best spreads and best lines on this and every game. The spread is Bucs -3.5, and you can take them on the money for -190 at PointsBet, or you can take the Saints for +165 at SugarHouse. By finding the best lines across the market, the SHARP App lets you take the hold down from about 5% at a normal sportsbook to 3.2%.
I believe the Bucs are clearly the better team. They are superior in terms of ELO rating, point differential, offensive EPA per play, EPA per pass attempt, and defensive EPA per play, and they just look better. Tom Brady is still playing good football, and the Buccaneers can put drives together. They just can’t put enough games together. Four of their six losses have come by a touchdown or less. It happened again last week against the Browns. The Bucs stopped scoring with 8 minutes left in the third quarter, and they let the Browns tie it with half a minute left.
The Saints' offensive line started out poor and has regressed. Andy Dalton has been pressured 10.3 times on average in each of the last four games, and the line isn’t opening up holes for the running backs either.
The AI Says…
The SHARP App’s AI model gives the Bucs a 65% chance of winning and puts the predicted spread at Bucs by 4.5. That’s very close to what the bookies are giving you. The Bucs’ moneyline of -190 means the bookies at SugarHouse think the Bucs have a 65.5% chance of winning, so there’s no edge there. Other AI models, including FiveThirtyEight’s and NFELO’s, also give Tampa roughly a two-out-of-three chance of winning.
Line Movement and Betting Action
The line opened at Tampa Bay -6.5 and kept falling until it settled at -3.5. The money has mostly settled, too. 54 percent of the bets are on the Saints to cover the spread, as is 69% of the money. A difference of 15% between the tickets and the money is not very significant. It looks like a situation where betters aren’t trusting the Bucs’ inconsistent play and hence leaning toward the underdogs.
There is also no edge to be found on the moneyline either. The odds are already roughly aligned with the win probabilities. The sharps don’t see it much differently judging by how they are placing bets. Eighty percent of betters have taken the Bucs to win outright, and they put 88% of the money on the Bucs, an even less significant money differential.
My Picks
A -3.5 favorite in a close game scares me, but I don’t think this is a close game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the more talented team. The Bucs tend to lose close, but they’ve only won by 3 once this season. Either the Bucs will win and beat the spread, or they will lose.
With the Bucs being a home favorite and having won three of their last four at home, I am predicting the Bucs win. Mike Evans comes motivated to win round two against Marshon Lattimore, and the Saints' offense can’t get anything going to match the Bucs.
Betting Picks: The Bucs win by more than 3.5, and the game total exceeds 40.5.
Last Week's Results: The Steelers pulled off the upset, winning by 7, and the game total was 41, over 39.5. I correctly predicted the winner but missed the game total.
Season Record: 2-0 vs spread, 2-0 on the moneyline, 0-2 on points
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