Model Kombat - The Travelers Championship (2023) by Spencer Aguiar & Byron Lindeque

At RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we proudly announce our new 'Model Kombat' article, a piece that will compare some of the differences inside the projections on the site from Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque.

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Last Five Winners Of The Travelers Championship

Expected Cut-Line

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats From Byron

Key Stats From Spencer

• 50% Stats/30% Weighted Form/20% Course History
• Weighted Tee-To-Green (30%)
• Strokes Gained Bent/Poa Putting (10%)
• Strokes Gained TPC Courses (10%)
• Strokes Gained Pete Dye Courses (10%)
• Strokes Gained  Short Courses (10%)
• Weighted Scoring (20%)
• BoB% At Short/TPC/Pete Dye Courses (10%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

Players Spencer Is Higher On This Week

Round 1...Fight

Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,000)

Spencer - There was a significant boost that my model noticed for MATTHEW Fitzpatrick (what is this Matt stuff?) that detected an increased scoring potential on these TPC and Pete Dye tracks. My numbers had him shift from 55th in expected birdie or better percentage in this field to 14th when given similar setups, creating a higher ceiling of potential than meets the eye.

Byron - If you are looking for a reason to play Fitz, it's because I am not. I hardly plug this guy into my lineups, but when I do it is at Pebble, Valspar, or the PGA Championship, which were all MCs. I am projecting winning scores to get close to -20 this week with this field loaded in elevated talent. Unfortunately, in an elevated field, Fitzpatrick's birdie percentage (43rd) and easy scoring (71st) do not get much higher than the 2nd floor, which has me taking the stairs instead, despite his three consecutive top-20s leading into the week.

Shane Lowry ($8,200)

Spencer - The key to this puzzle might be if my model ends up being correct about Shane Lowry's expected putting increase on similar green complexes. My data moved him from 107th to 43rd in expected putting for this course, which plays nicely next to a total driving number that ranked sixth overall. All that helped him generate a projected birdie or better rate that landed inside the top 25.

Byron - If Fitz's elevator could not make it higher than the 2nd floor on easy courses, Shane Lowry's is welded to the basement floor. Lowry is 127th in in easy scoring and 112th in birdie percentage and has not managed to get his score into double digits under par once this year in his dozen starts. The reason? He cannot make enough putts, ranking 142th in putting and 152nd in putting from 5-15 feet.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300)

Spencer - That fifth-place finish at the U.S. Open was an aberrational result that just as quickly should have resulted in a missed cut. Unfortunately, it doesn't give us that projected decrease in ownership that he would have received had he failed to get into the weekend, but we are looking at a golfer that has been a top-20 machine. You always have to wonder about the win equity when he reaches this part of the board. However, I still find Fleetwood's playability to be much higher than Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark - two golfers that will be similar in popularity and have less of a ceiling.

Byron - Tommy might as well just jump into Fitzpatrick's elevator, as he ranks 54th in BoB% in this field and 104th in easy scoring. Yes, Tommy is playing better right now and although he lost in a playoff to Nick Taylor two starts ago, he did so on the back of an incredible putting performance. I may be late to the Tommy party, but I still stand by the fact that he is better suited for more difficult courses with scores in the single digits vs -17 like we have seen here before.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)

Spencer - Lacking that robust finish over the past few months, Hideki Matsuyama has remained the blueprint for consistency after delivering eight consecutive top-32 finishes. Matsuyama's expected tee-to-green increase from 12th to fourth might be the shift needed to crack the leaderboard's first page, not to mention that these TPC courses are always encouraging for his potential.

Byron - We are heading to a putting contest where past leaderboards are drenched with golfers who have gained significant strokes putting. Hideki sits 123rd in putting over the last 24 rounds and also finds himself with a birdie % rate that is outside the top 40 in this field. I just don't see him getting -17 the way he is currently putting (that could easily change as we have seen at results like the Sony Open a few years back). But again, that is a few years back. He just has not putted well lately.

K.H. Lee ($7,300)

Spencer - We see the weighted scoring, proximity totals and tee-to-green numbers all get increased in projection for this track, which is one of the reasons the floor is a little higher than the boom-or-bust nature of many of the players around him in price. Don't forget, K.H. Lee is called TPC Lee for a reason. Home-field advantage is worth a lot in these fights.

Byron - Home-field advantage is definitely worth noting for TPC Lee, however, you still need to hit good shots to afford yourself birdie looks and KH just does not do that right now with his weighted good shot % sitting outside the top 100. He is a little more prone to success from 150-175, but that 39th ranking is not enough to lift up the rest of his game.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Players Byron Is Higher On This Week

Round 2...Fight

Scottie Scheffler ($11,300)

Byron - If you look at my color coded database of round by round strokes gained, it looks like Scottie Scheffler's stats are sponsored by the Jets, because it is just this glorious sea of green that shades the excel boxes of his tee-to-green game. Despite rattling off top 5 finishes in his sleep with a putter as useful as a wooden frying pan, Scheffler is still 4th in birdie %, which just goes to show how sensational his ball striking is, as usually you need to hole the odd 10 foot putt to make a birdie - not Scottie. He is first in SG Approach, Weighted SG / Proximity / Good Shot % / Poor Shot Avoidance %, and is struggling in green in regulation all the way in 2nd. Just a robot of repeatability makes it hard to steer clear of this dude right now.

Spencer - Is my model broken? Sixth overall feels like an outrageous output for one of the greatest tee-to-green seasons ever. You aren't going to find many answers against Scottie Scheffler that don't deal with his putter, but the fact that he graded as the only golfer $8,700 (or higher) to place outside the top 75 of this field for projected putting did hurt his ceiling in my model. Something has to give at some point. Either the putter gets hot or the ball-striking regresses to its mean level. I'll try to go for the second answer and be more aggressive with names like Cantlay and Rahm.

Max Homa ($8,900)

Byron - Two top-10s in his two last non-major starts, 6th in birdie % and already having won twice this year gets Max Homa a $8,900 price tag as one of the best putters in the field. His overall stats are getting a little skewed by his inability to function in majors, but I trust him at an elevated event especially at this price.

Spencer - This is all course history and current form. A better profile in those areas would have shifted Max Homa into a fringe top-10 option. I am okay with anyone that wants to dart-throw him in GPPs, but the safety does leave a lot to be desired in cash and things of that nature.

Corey Conners ($7,700)

Byron - It's not often Corey Conners and brass knuckles find themselves in the same paragraph, yet here we are, with Conners throwing haymakers in the weighted good shot % column of my model (7th). If you are gaining over half a stroke on a single approach shot the 7th most in the field, especially as somebody who gains the 5th most strokes off the tee on courses shorter than 7,200 yards, you get to rock the brass knuckles. The short game is scary, but with the 4th best GIR% we have lots of birdie looks coming up this week.

Spencer - I'd give pretty much the same answer for Corey Conners as I did for Max Homa. Byron will either look great when they top 10 in the event OR he will experience that greater missed-cut equity because of their boom-or-bust returns in my model. I am okay with using either in GPPs, but I would be cognizant of anything under the safety threshold. These last two have involved Byron using brass knuckles in this fight since I am neither in nor out in GPPs. The upside is pronounced in my sheet for each. 

Byeong Hun An ($7,500)

Byron - As the 30th best driver of the ball on these shorter kinds of courses less than 7,200 yards, An's distance allows him to club down and gain accuracy off the tee that he lacks with the driver. He is also 28th in birdie percentage which is validated by his 19th best strokes gained on easy courses. The putter is a disaster but we trust his ball striking to afford him enough birdie looks to miss his fair share this week.

Spencer -I expected much more out of Byeong Hun An in my model than I received. The current form looks brilliant and shouldn't be discounted, but the statistical data continues to negatively move him down my board and into a range that I am mostly ignoring. His shift from 18th to 74th in weighted tee-to-green was the eventual undoing that removed him out of my player pool.

Taylor Moore ($7,200)

Byron - Moore gained strokes at the US Open and missed the cut. Had his putter shown up a little more, he would have been playing weekend golf. His ball striking numbers are solid, sitting inside the top 30 in SG OTT on short courses and over the course of the season he has been the 2nd best putter from 5-15 feet. His packs a punch from a weighted approach standpoint too, ranking inside the top-30 in GIR% and Good Shot % which my model thinks is a dangerous combination top 30 rankings that could see him start playing better golf again this week.

Spencer - The ownership is the most intriguing part of Taylor Moore's profile. My numbers for him at TPC River Highlands were alarming, which saw him grade outside the top 90 for overall rank and upside. I am not going to play golfers that find themselves in this negative spiral when running everything for a course-specific answer, and I feel like I can pinpoint my natural pivot spots with options like K.H. Lee over someone that might be past his 2023 surge.

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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