Model Kombat - The Rocket Mortgage Classic (2023) by Spencer Aguiar & Byron Lindeque

Spencer and Byron compare notes (and models) to figure out what players possess the largest disparities for them during this week's Rocket Mortgage Classic.

At RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we proudly announce our new 'Model Kombat' article, a piece that will compare some of the differences inside the projections on the site from Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque.

If you would like a more in-depth answer for all players inside this week's field, we hope you consider signing up for our PGA Platinum VIP Package. There, you will find all of our amazing content for the week, including Byron's 'Stat Buffet' and Spencer's 'Rankings Wizard Model.' 

Those are two tools that we are incredibly excited to share with all golf enthusiasts, and the ability to create your own model from their information is something that we believe can generate an edge for anyone trying to dive deeper into these boards. Once again, thank you for considering our product, and we hope you enjoy the article below!

Last Five Winners Of The Rocket Mortgage Classic

Expected Cut-Line

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats From Byron

Key Stats From Spencer

• 60% Stats/30% Weighted Form, 10% Course History
• Weighted SG: Total (35%)
• Weighted OTT + APP (10%)
• Weighted ATG + Putt (10%)
• Weighted Easy Scoring (10%)
• Weighted Scoring (25%)
• Prox 0-150 + Putt (10%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

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Players Spencer Is Higher On This Week

Round 1...Fight

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600)

Spencer - Can Hideki Matsuyama make enough putts at a birdie fest to win the tournament? I believe we can get around some of those questions since the price tag landed too cheaply inside my model, but the ultimate answer comes down to rolling in putts. If he does, he can win the event. If he doesn't, I still trust the recent form we have gotten from him to pay off this salary. My model thought Matsuyama was the safest option in the field.

Byron - Despite turning on the Jets on approach since the Genesis Invitational, gaining +1.06 per round (L36), we have yet to see a top 10 finish from Matsuyama since a 5th-place finish at the PLAYERS. Reason being, the -0.5 he is losing putting over the last 16 individual rounds. He sits 6th in my model due to the iron play, but even with such scintillating tee-t0-green numbers, Matsuyama is 26th in birdie % on the season and 15th on Par 5 scoring, which, for a $9,600 golfer, is a little bit concerning. In my opinion, there are a little more risky, higher-upside pivots available with ownership discount.

Ludvig Aberg ($8,700)

Spencer - I ran my data without regressing his limited totals since the upside seems shockingly high. We see that with him pushing into being a sub-50/1 option at most books, and the $8,700 price tag on DraftKings continues that narrative that Aberg is the real deal. Don't be shocked if the youngster wins on tour before 2023 is over, and we could be looking at a future number-one in the world if he continues to put the pieces together. 

Byron - The hype train is off the rails in my opinion. Yes, the talent is undeniable, but in his four starts this year, we have yet to see anything better than a T25 from the PGA U graduate. His length off the tee is a very appealing trait heading to a venue like Detroit Golf Club, but his iron play has been losing him strokes in his two most recent pro starts, while the putter is losing him a quarter of a shot per round in his last 3 starts. He is now just shy of $9,000 and his ownership is starting to climb like his driver's ball flight. The chance to get on him early and cheaply has passed, I will stand nervously alongside the hype train tracks waiting for the next supersonic protege to steam on in.

Ben Griffin ($7,100)

Spencer - The floor is lava for a golfer that has forgotten how to make a cut since the Wells Fargo Championship. No top 50 results in six tournaments will tell why this price tag has fallen into the bottom of the $7,000 range, but I am still willing to trust the long-term data here at a unique venue. Griffin ranked ninth in my model in weighted proximity from 0-150 yards when mixing the likelihood to make the putt, and his top 30 grade for weighted scoring and weighted strokes gained total gives me some hope that he can create a little magic in Detroit.

Byron - It appears the magical short game that vaulted the rookie to top-21 finishes in three of his first six starts in 2023, has lost its shine. The dull ball striking is not sufficient enough to compete at a PGA Tour level sitting outside the top-100 in weighted good shot percentage. Five missed cuts in his last six starts, with the made cut being a T52 is not doing it for me and despite the appealing price and ownership, there are much better options with better form with the same price tag.

Alex Noren ($7,300)

Spencer - Ben Griffin and Alex Noren make up the general sadness my season-long fantasy teams have encountered here in 2023. It has turned into a disappointing few months for each man, where their pre-season aspirations for what this back-end stretch could be experiencing aren't meeting their reality. That said, the Swede has quietly put together a top-20 production in my model when faced with easy courses. That is an answer that bucks conventional wisdom that would push many toward him on a challenging track, and while the driver has been flawed recently, the wide-open nature could greatly benefit his chances to create opportunities.

Byron - An older, Swedish Ben Griffin with a slightly more proven short game, but with Voldemort-level optimism on the ball striking front. In his 18 PGA tour rounds since the Masters, Swedish Griffin is losing over a stroke per round on the ball striking front, which will not provide him with enough makeable birdie opportunities at a venue that could see the top-20 need to get into the -20s? 139th in Birdie or Better percentage and 158th in Par 5 scoring are plummeting his ranking.

Thomas Detry ($7,400)

Spencer - Sometimes, you must save your best fighter until the last battle. I have to admit that I am so all in on Thomas Detry this week that I can barely see straight with all the exposure I find myself with when looking into multiple iterations of this market. However, one of the things you will always get from me is the straightforward nature that I will trust the deviations inside my sheet at all costs. It is uncommon for 100/1+ shots in the $7,000 range to land as a top-10 win equity choice, which has led me down this road where Detry is going to decide the outcome of my event. I am all about trying to realize my perceived edge in these situations, and if Detry pops the way I believe is possible, it could be a significant score. 

Byron - Since we are comparing golfers, the Belgian Adam Scott began his 2023 year with 5 consecutive top-40s before a PLAYERS missed cut and a horrific 83 in R3 of the Valero Texas Open turn this handsome top-40 factory, into just, a handsome factory? A T21 at the Charles Schwab seemed to be a glimmer of hope for the PGA newcomer, but that was the only top-40 result in the last 5 starts since his 83... The price seems right, but I am not sure this is the guy I want to hitch my wagon to at roughly 7%, just yet.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Players Byron Is Higher On This Week

Round 2...Fight

Collin Morikawa ($10,600)

Byron - Do I agree that Collin is the 3rd best option at a birdie fest? His 5th-ranked birdie percentage suggests he is slightly over valued in my model. However, for somebody who seems to be perennially putting in an alternate reality vs the field, Morikawa still somehow manages to rank 10th in easy scoring conditions this year. He is spendy, but he is the best iron player in the world, who will be roughly 10% less owned than Hideki, albeit due to the $1,000 tax on his price. I took a look at who is capable of going lower than -15 as we expect very low scores this week, and since 2017 guess who has the highest percentage of sub-15 scores per round? The best iron player in the world, Collin Morikawa, at 15% ownership.

Spencer - I just asked the question regarding Hideki Matsuyama's ability to make enough putts to win this contest. I said I was in at the price tag. However, with the same question possible here for Collin Morikawa, I am going to say no because of the combination of salary and ownership. I prefer the $1,000 discount Hideki provides for a similar ball-striking skillset and will take what I believe to be the higher-end option by fading Morikawa.

Aaron Rai ($7,800)

Byron - I get to throw the counter punches this week, as Spencer typed his answers first, and I had very similar reservations for A A Ron, who I felt was incapable of making enough birdies. However, his recent run of T12, Mc, T3, T24 have him making a lot more birdies, now ranking 31st in BoB% and 36th in easy scoring conditions. His last 8 rounds have also been no worse than -2 which is testament to his 8th ranked recent ball striking and a putter that is averaging+0.2 over the last two starts, which +0.8 strokes better per round vs the putrid -0.6 he has been dealing with this year. We are trying to catch lightning in a bottle here, at an affordable price tag.

Spencer -My problem with Aaron Rai lands under the answer that I give most weeks for players of this prototype. The ownership and price tag have taken a massive spike because of a few good performances. While the numbers still grade respectfully when trying to build cash-game lineups, I worry about the ceiling for Rai when push comes to shove. It is just a personal preference that I dislike playing popular choices with negative trajectories inside my model for their upside return. To me, it feels like you are paying the toll for answers that aren't course-specific.

Joseph Bramlett ($7,600)

Byron - If you have watched The Other Guys, Mark Wahlberg's character says, "I'm a peacock, you gotta let me fly", which is what I think Bramlett feels like on courses like Colonial CC and TPC River Highlands, both short, positional tracks that keep booming drivers in the bag. Detroit Golf Club, on the other hand, is going to let Bramlett's distance OTT and weighted GIR% flap their beautifully colored wings that rank 5th in this field. A birdie or better percentage of 17th and par 5 scoring of 24th, give us even more reason to believe that a couped up Bramlett could be hitting the ground running in pursuit of improving on his finishes at longer, easier courses like Mexico Open (T10) and Byron Nelson (T19). A T16 at a lengthy Muirfield also doesn't hurt his outlook at $7,600.

Spencer - I love the weighted scoring answer for Joseph Bramlett inside my model. Fourteenth overall is a noteworthy amount that shows why he may be able to use his distance and par-five scoring to find success. Still, his failure to make the weekend in Detroit in three tries + two missed cuts in three recent starts weighed too heavily for my model to overlook.

Dylan Wu ($7,000)

Byron - Dylan Wu is the idea pivot off of Ben Griffin, as we are getting a similar price and ownership profile, with a sizeable difference in recent form, having top-40 finishes in four of his last seven starts, with three of them being T25 or better. He provides a you with the 15th most birdies in the field and the 13th best par 5 scoring, while ranking 27th on easy scoring conditions. His last 24 rounds on approach sit inside the top-20 in this field and he is 6th in weighted GIR%, which will give him countless birdie putts, albeit from range.

Spencer - Dylan Wu ranked 97th in my model when combing proximity from 0-150 yards + his ability to make the putt. We also saw him slide from 44th in strokes gained total on any generic track on tour to 110th when running course-specific data.

Brandon Wu ($7,500)

Byron - I am extremely high on Brandon Wu, as he seems to have solidified himself as a desirable non-elevated event bachelor, who knows his capabilities. He hits on the hot girl's best friend, with great success, due to going 0 from 4 in his last four elevated events. He took miss Canada's bestie home for a T9 at the RBC Canadian Open, while miss Mexico's mate got even better treatment with a T3 package. Wu is also the 12th best birdie maker in the field and hits the 14th most good shots, which seem to shine most in these weaker field events. "Always the bridesmaid, never the bride" is a motto Brandon wears with pride, potentially in store to take home a winner in Detroit this week, with the majority of the tour's superstars watching from their couches.

Spencer - Is Byron trying to Wu me inside this article? You are a married man, bro. I know I am a single bachelor, but this is too much Wuing for my liking.

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