Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular.

Since we know that the difference between a good year and a great year can often be determined by the value found in the late rounds, I went through the draft board and identified my favorite players taken in the last 10 rounds of our mock draft. These are all guys who I think have tremendous potential to recoup value in redraft leagues and should be on your shortlist when you come to those final rounds.

(ADP was calculated using NFBC ADP from 1/1/2020 to 2/12/2020 and selecting only Draft Champions leagues)

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RotoBaller Early Staff Mock

Carson Kelly (C, ARI) - ADP: 213

Carson Kelly is one of my favorite catchers if I find myself waiting on the position. He was a clear launch angle gainer, increasing from 5.4 degrees in 2018 to 14.3 last year. His barrel% jumped over two percent and his Hard Hit % improved nearly 15%, all while increasing his BB% into the top 8% of the league. For a 25-year-old entering his athletic prime, much of this is indicative of clear signs of growth that could signal a 20+ home run season with a .250 average in a good lineup.

The only bit of cold water I'll throw on this is that Kelly is a right-handed batter who hit .203/.303/.405 versus RHP and .356/.462/.667 versus LHP. The Diamondbacks signed Stephen Vogt in the offseason, and once the LHH Vogt returned from offseason injury, he put up a barrel% of 10.4 and a Hard hit% of 41.1 while also hitting .271/.330/.505 against right-handed pitchers. If Vogt gets hot, the Diamondbacks could rotate him in for a few games per week against right-handed starters, which would cap Kelly's at-bats around 400 and make him slightly less attractive than some of the other late catchers (more on that later).

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX) - ADP: 219

I wrote about Odor already in my piece on Brls/BBE% breakouts, so I'll just offer some snippets of analysis from that piece to highlight why I like him as a late-round value:

"He has also improved his BB% from 4.9% to 8% to 9% over the last three seasons. It's not a game-changing shift, but it's real progress, especially when paired with an O-Swing% that has dropped from 38.3% to 35.4% to 33.1% over the same span...When he does make contact, he is doing so with more power, increasing his barrels each of the last three seasons before this outburst last year. Pair that with an 86-percentile Hard-Hit% and a nearly five-degree increase in launch angle, and you have a bat that looks like it can provide consistent power.

In fact, Odor has hit 30 home runs and stolen at least 10 bases in three of the last four seasons. You're not going to get that from very many players, and certainly not any going this late in the draft. With more contact, and more powerful contact, Odor could put together another 30-10 season with a batting average around .230, which, if you remove his batting average from the equation, is enough to give him a rbEDV around pick 110 (23 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 77 runs and 74 RBIs)."

Mitch Keller (SP, PIT) - ADP: 221

On the surface, Mitch Keller was not great in his MLB audition for the Pirates last year, pitching to a 7.13 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a .343 BAA. Not all of that was a fluke, as the right-hander features a fastball that induced only a 17.6 Whiff%, a .324 xBA, and .476 xSLG.

However, many of Keller's underlying metrics suggest that he was actually pitching much closer to his 3.47 xFIP. His BABIP was .475 for starters, which is certainly not sustainable. He had a 21.6% K-BB% and an 11.8% SwStr% while flashing two plus secondary offerings: A slider that had a 2.3 pVAL, a 47.8 Whiff%, and a 29.5 PutAway%, and a curve that had a 2.7 pVAL, a 34 Whiff% and a 25.5 PutAway%.

If he can limit damage on his fastball and use it to set up his plus off-speed, Keller should be in for 150+ innings of an ERA around 3.80, WHIP around 1.27, and just under 10 K/9. He won't get a lot of wins on the Pirates, but that stat line equates to a rbEDV in the low 200s.

Jose Urquidy (SP, HOU) - ADP: 222

Urquidy seems to be flying under the radar despite the fact that he's a prospect with a solid track record and a locked-in spot in the Astros starting rotation. He arrived to little fanfare but put up a 3.95 ERA in seven starts with a 24 K% and only a 4.2 BB%. He doesn't have elite velocity, but his command and plus off-speed offerings allow him to limit hard contact and pick up a fair number of whiffs, as both his curve and slider had a Whiff% over 40 during his big league stint last year.

Even with Forrest Whitley banging on the door, I'd expect Urquidy to keep his roster spot given Lance McCullers' innings limit and the question marks around the team's fifth starter spot. With 160+ innings, Urquidy could conceivably pitch to an ERA around 4.00 with a sub 1.2 WHIP and a 160+ strikeouts on a good team that's likely to up his win totals. According to rbEDV that would be good for pick 160 if he could pitch to a 3.70 ERA, so even with an ERA hit, Urquidy is well worth taking as you approach pick 200.

Adrian Houser (SP, MIL) - ADP: 253

Houser got 18 starts for the Brewers in 2019 and acquitted himself quite well. He threw 111.1 innings with a 3.72 ERA and 3.60 xFIP while notching a 25.3 K% and giving up 91st-percentile exit velocity and 86th-percentile xSLG.

He doesn't miss a lot of bats, with a 9.6 SwStr% and a 27.5% O-Swing, but he has good command of four offerings and started using his sinker as a primary pitch in 2019, which was smart as it had an 11.9 pVAL and allowed his 94-95 mph fastball to become more of a strikeout pitch with a 23.4 PutAway% in 2019 as opposed to 13.3% in 2018.

What's interesting about his success with his sinker is that Houser also experienced the 13th-worst defense behind him, according to Statcast's OAA metric. If he gets even league-average defense, Houser could be even more effective than he was last year, and he seems locked into a starting job with very little competition elsewhere on the Brewers' roster. That makes him closer to a low 200s value based on rbEDV and worth taking a late-round flier on in almost any format at his current price.

Starlin Castro (2B/SS, WAS) - ADP: 263

Castro was quietly effective in Miami last year, hitting .270 with 22 home runs, 68 runs and 86 RBIs. Now he moves to a much stronger Washington lineup and a better offensive park. People should be all over him, but his ADP is falling because many projection systems seem to have him playing 120 games or fewer. I'm not sure I understand that.

Even with Asdrubal Cabrera and Howie Kendrick back, Castro should see close to full playing time. Carter Kieboom is not a lock to take the 3B job, and Castro could slide to 3B if the Nationals decide to get innings at 2B for Cabrera or Kendrick, who can also get his at-bats in the outfield. Castro saw legit growth last year, cutting his K% and improve his hard contact for the third year in a row. In the middle of a strong offense, there's no reason he can't push for 20+ home runs and another 80+ RBI season with a strong batting average.

Brendan McKay (SP, TB) - ADP: 270

McKay is a prime example of how quickly we experience prospect fatigue. When the Rays called him up, fantasy managers unloaded their FAAB budgets to land him on their team. Despite showing flashes, he struggled, for the most part, compiling a 5.14 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, while registering a negative pVAL on all of his offerings. He was in the fourth-percentile in curve spin and the third-percentile in exit velocity allowed, which is indicative of the hard contact that he was giving up. However, his minor league track record didn't simply go away.

Despite his poor performance, he had a K-BB% of 18.5 and a .261 xBA. Even when he was not on top of his game and giving up frequent hard contact, he was still striking players at a good clip and suppressing inflated average totals. As he begins to get comfortable in the majors and perhaps relies more on a changeup that had a 36.4 Whiff% and less on the curve that gave up a .299 xBA and .455 xSLG, McKay could provide immense value at his current price. I'd buy now simply based on upside, but if there are any spring training reports about a new pitch mix or improvements to the curve, I'd be even more aggressive in my pursuit.

Garrett Richards (SP, SD) - ADP: 287

Garrett Richards has a lengthy injury history. Everybody playing fantasy baseball knows that, which is why he's being drafted near pick 300. He hasn't pitched more than 100 innings since 2015 but has tantalized with upside in his brief periods of health. He had an average SwStr% of 11.7 from 2016-18 and a 25 K% during the same span. His best pitch has always been his slider, which he didn't throw much in his three starts last year, but it's more than likely that he was just beginning to get comfortable after coming back from injury.

The Padres signed him to a two-year deal and only got three starts from him in 2019. There's a very good chance they see just how much they can throw Richards in his final year under contract. Richards' risk isn't talent-based but volume-based, so if he were to get hurt, you could always pick up a streaming starter and continue to accrue stats at the position you had pegged for Richards on your roster. With a pick this late in the draft, even if you get just 100 innings of above-average K-rate and a high-threes ERA, you're getting more than enough value.

Dylan Bundy (SP, LAA) - ADP: 288

Dylan Bundy has been a favorite of Baseball Twitter this offseason. At first, it seemed to start as a joke, taking a renewed interest in him due to his move out of Baltimore, but then the stats started coming and the humor turned to genuine intrigue. Despite his K-BB% decreasing by 2.5% and his ERA still at a bloated 4.79, there were some interesting developments for the 27-year-old. Bundy limited hard contact, gave up fewer barrels, and pitched to career-lows in all the x-Stats (xBA, xSLG, XOBA, etc.). Then, Alex Chamberlain sent the Bundy debate into a new stratosphere but showing his remarkable similarity to rising star and Twitter-favorite Shane Bieber.

Now that Bundy has moved to a better pitcher's park, with a better defense, and a team more likely to give him an increase in wins, it's fair to wonder if the former top prospect could become a useful fantasy option. At the price he's going, it's certainly worth taking a chance.

Seth Lugo (RP, NYM) - ADP: 305 /
Drew Pomeranz (RP, SD) - ADP: 404

At the back end of your draft, there are few picks more productive and unsexy than a multi-inning reliever. Even though it became all the rage when Chris Devenski burst onto the scene three years ago, there are still many owners that chase saves exclusively, instead of pairing volatile closers up with solid ratio relievers.

Lugo and Pomeranz are two of the best late-round ones you can find. Lugo is a bit trendier since he was able to accrue six saves last year. While I think that's unlikely this year with Edwin Diaz hopefully returning to form and Dellin Betances in town, Lugo should still throw 70+ innings of sub-3.00 ERA baseball with a high 20s K%. He'll also be in line for cheap wins to add some additional value.

Pomeranz is in a similar situation but is less popular because he only transitioned into the bullpen full-time towards the end of the year. However, in his 28.1 innings out of the pen, Pomeranz had 50 strikeouts and a 1.88 ERA on a .165 BAA. His fastball was able to sit around 93 and played up even faster because of his big curveball. As the primary lefty in the pen, Pomeranz could snag some cheap wins and even get the occasional save against lefty-heavy lineups due to the new three-batter minimum.

Ian Happ (2B/OF, CHC) - ADP: 330

Ian Happ is only 25-years-old. I feel that warrants mentioning. As I discussed with Brendan McKay above, the fantasy community can turn its back on former prospects all too quickly. Happ burst onto the scene in 2017, hitting 24 home runs in 115 games and many people were ready to anoint him as a legitimate fantasy asset. Then his swing-and-miss tendencies got the better of him in 2018 and he wound up in the minors in 2019, and people had already forgotten about him. However, Happ still knows how to hit.

He played 57 games over the second half of 2019 after being recalled from the minors and showed improved patience and plate discipline, cutting his K% from 36.8% in 2018 to 25%. During the 26 games he played last September and October, Happ hit .311/.348/..672 with six home runs, nine runs, and 17 RBI. He seems likely to be the Cubs' centerfielder in 2020, but could also see time at 2B since the Cubs are currently set to start Jason Kipnis there.

If he gets 500+ at-bats, it's easy to see a 20-home run, 10-stolen base season for Happ with a good chance for 80+ RBI in a solid lineup. That's well worth taking outside of the top 300, especially if he winds up with that dual-position eligibility.

Travis Shaw (3B, TOR) - ADP: 345

Shaw is the ultimate bounce-back candidate. After hitting 30+ home runs in back-to-back campaigns, Shaw decided to change his swing and admitted to being thrown off all last season. He claims to be back to old his old mechanics, which means it's not out of the question to assume he returns to his previous numbers.

After all, he's only 29 years old and many of his alarming numbers from last year - 33 K%, .113 ISO, .175 AVG, 76.7 Z-Contact%, 60.5 O-Contact% - deviate so much from his career profile that it's easy to view them as products of a lost season. According to Statcast, his Hard Hit% was nearly identical to 2018 and his barrel% was identical to 2017, while his BB% kept the same gains he experienced in 2018. The biggest change is that his launch angle jumped from 16.6 degrees to 24.4 degrees.

So, Shaw has the same improved plate discipline and similar hard contact metrics as he did during the two separate years that he hit 30 home runs, he's still in a hitter's park and in the middle of a strong lineup that should give him ample opportunity for counting stats? Yeah, that helps me believe in the return to form, and if I get any indication that his swing is back to normal during the spring, I'll buy almost everywhere, as it's possible we see another season with a .250 average, 25+ home runs, 70 runs and 80 RBIs, all from outside the top-300 picks.

Josh James (RP, HOU) - ADP: 367

Josh James seemed primed to win a spot in the Astros rotation in Spring Training last year before a quad injury delayed the start of his season. When he came back, the Astros used him primarily out of the bullpen, where his elite fastball was able to play up.

However, people are writing James off as simple bullpen depth a little too quickly. He's worked primarily as a starter for his entire minor league career, amassing a K% over 30 the last two years. He has two solid off-speed offerings, with a slider that gets a 56.3 Whiff% and a changeup that registered a 50.7 Whiff%. Both pitches also show elite vertical movement, while the slider has proven to be a true wipe-out pitch for him.

Without any truly high BB% before moving to the bullpen, there's no reason why James should be viewed as a "former starter." With Brad Peacock, current favorite to land the fifth spot in the Astros rotation, experiencing neck issues, the path towards starting is looking better. For a pitcher of James' quality, that makes him worth taking this late in drafts.

Nathan Eovaldi (SP/RP, BOS) - ADP: 374

Speaking of taking a shot, Eovaldi is the ideal late-round flier. He threw 67.2 unsuccessful innings for the Red Sox last year while battling injury, but he showed the same dynamic stuff which led him to a K% jump between 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Eovaldi used his cutter to get ahead and then set up his 97-98 MPH fastball up as a put-away pitch. For some reason, while battling injury in 2019, Eovaldi massively cut back on his cutter usage and in favor of his curve, which had a 41.1 Whiff% but has only been a marginally successful pitch for him throughout his career.

If he can get back to using the cutter more and then pair that with the high fastball and his improved curve, there's no reason he can't repeat 2018 with an ERA under 4.00 and a K/9 north of eight while pitching for a team that should put him in a good position for wins. Plus, if new Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom brings his old Tampa Bay philosophy of the opener to Boston, Eovaldi would be the perfect pitcher to use as a "Follower," throwing five innings to limit his overall wear-and-tear and still be in line for victories. That's a chance I'm willing to take this late in drafts where I'm essentially investing nothing and can move on easily if he falters.

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