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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Monday Night Football - Lions vs Packers. His Week 2 MNF daily fantasy football advice and value plays.
Happy Monday RotoBallers! I hope your Week Two has been profitable thus far. We have an interesting matchup this Monday Night, with the Lions heading into Lambeau to take on Rodgers and the Packers. A week removed from the Packers getting stomped by New Orleans, Vegas anticipates this one being a dominating performance by Green Bay, seeing as they're 12.5 point favorites. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on September 20th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers was absolutely abysmal last week against the Saints, going 15-28 for 133 yards and two interceptions. He'll look to rectify that performance tonight against Detroit. The Lions were brutal against the pass last season, with a DVOA of 32.5% against the pass. We can safely expect Rodgers to bounce back and light it up tonight.
I won't have a ton of Lions exposure tonight, but I'll definitely have some Jared Goff. The Packers had a solid DVOA against the pass last year (4.9%) but got lit up for five touchdowns by Jameis Winston last Sunday. With the Lions likely battling back from a big deficit, Jared Goff should be able to rack up some garbage time fantasy points for us tonight.
DFS Running Backs
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should both do well tonight, assuming they both get a nice amount of touches. I'll limit myself to just one of them per lineup but will have exposure to both. The Lions had a DVOA of -0.5% against the run last year but were especially bad against running backs in the passing game, with a DVOA of 46.2%.
Swift is questionable coming into tonight's game, but the expectation is that he will play. He was also "limited" last week, which resulted in 11 carries and 11 targets, resulting in 104 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. With him being arguably the best offensive player on the Lions, I will be having quite a bit of him tonight. I will have Jamaal Williams exposure also, and even more so if Swift ends up being ruled out.
DFS Wide Receivers
Outside of the poor week one performance, there's not much bad that you can say about Davante Adams. He's a great wide receiver, and I expect the Packers to be more in-tune tonight than last week. He's got a great matchup here also, as the Lions had a DVOA of 21.2% against "WR1s" in 2020. He's Rodgers's favorite target and he should see plenty tonight.
I'm certainly going to be heavy on the Packers' offense tonight, spreading ownership around all pieces while consolidating my Lions' ownership to mostly their "top" guys. I'm a huge fan of MVS in this matchup on account that the Lions had a 19.4% DVOA against "WR2s" last season. He saw eight targets last week, and if that volume will be replicated, he's the best value play on both sites.
Other WRs: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Quintez Cephus
DFS Tight Ends
I've been waiting for Hockenson to explode for while now, and week one was certainly a step in that direction. He saw 11 targets which led to eight catches, 97 yards and a score against San Francisco. With Tyrell Williams ruled out for Detroit, the passing game will be consolidated towards guys like Hockenson and Swift, so I'll have more shares of them than any other Lion.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
Packers D/ST
I'd tread lightly here, as we're not completely sure what the Packers' defense is this year. They got walloped by New Orleans, who Carolina held to just seven points yesterday. However, there is a decent chance this could turn into an all-Packers rout where the defense is flying around making plays, causing turnovers, and picking up sacks. I'll have shares of them, but I want offense in this one.
Other D/ST: Mason Crosby, Austin Seibert
Have a good Monday everyone, see you on Thursday.
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