RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers and welcome to November! Winter is coming. I hope your Week 8 has been profitable so far. I've been on quite a roll lately, having another solid day yesterday, cashing three of the four major slates and just missing out on the showdown slate. Tonight we have a brisk game between two struggling teams as the Giants (2-5) head to Kansas City to take on the reeling Chiefs (3-4). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on November 1st. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes ($18,000 DK, $17,000 FD)
Eventually, we'll see the Patrick Mahomes of old and this stretch of bad games from Mahomes and the Chiefs will come to an end. I don't have to be the one to tell you that Mahomes is having a "down year," relatively speaking. He's thrown for 2,093 yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. The poor form hasn't been reflected in his fantasy numbers though, as Mahomes is still QB1 in all fantasy formats. He's worth playing on every slate, and in a shoot-out type of matchup like tonight shapes out to be, he's most certainly worth having in your 1.5x spot.
Devontae Booker ($12,300 DK, $12,000 FD)
On the other side of the ball, we have Devontae Booker. It's not news to anyone that the Chiefs are bad defensively, but they really struggle against the run, with a DVOA of -1.5% which ranks 31st in the league. Since Saquon Barkley left the Giants' week five game, Booker has logged 42 rushing attempts for 134 yards and two touchdowns. He's also logged nine of 11 targets for 59 yards and a score in the passing game. The Chiefs have struggled against running backs in the passing game as well, with a DVOA of 17.7%, which ranks 28th in the league. While we get Mahomes at a relative discount on DK, Booker opens up a lot more room for some of the other studs we want to fit in.
Other Captains: Tyreek Hill, Darrel Williams
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Travis Kelce ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD)
One of those studs we want to fill into our lineups is Travis Kelce. Kelce has been his usual self despite the Chiefs' struggles this year, catching 45 of 65 targets for 533 yards and four touchdowns. The Giants are below average at defending tight ends, coming into this one with a DVOA of 4.9% against the TE position, which ranks 18th in the league. He should line up against Reggie Ragland for some of the night, who allows a 75% catch rate and 0.16 fantasy points per route covered.
Daniel Jones ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD)
After a great start to the year, Jones had back-to-back brutal outings in weeks five and six, before turning it around last week against Carolina. He's thrown for 1,727 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions through the first seven weeks, and has supplemented those numbers with 229 yards and two touchdowns on 41 rushing attempts. I personally am not sold on Daniel Jones as a quarterback, but it's difficult to fade him against the Chiefs,. They come into this one with a defensive DVOA of 34.7% against the pass, which ranks 31st in the league.
Other Flex Plays: Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Darrel Williams
NFL DFS Value Plays
Evan Engram ($5,400 DK, $7,000 FD)
I think Evan Engram isn't completely "there" as a player yet, which isn't something you want to hear about a 27-year-old player. However, I think in the right system he could be a very good TE, and there are rumors that he could be on the move soon. Engram has 20 receptions on 29 targets this season, good for 171 yards. He did play well last week against the Panthers, logging six catches for 44 yards, and gets a solid matchup against the Chiefs who have a 9.8% DVOA against tight ends, which ranks 21st in the league. I'm not expecting much from Engram, but I think he should be able to hit value as long as he gets the targets.
Mecole Hardman ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD)
I think it's kind of silly that Hardman is this cheap, considering he's the clear WR2 in this Chiefs offense that could explode at any moment. Hardman has caught 30 of 40 targets through seven games this year, good for 289 yards and a touchdown. With James Bradberry likely following Tyreek Hill for most of the night, Hardman should see quite a bit of Darnay Holmes. Holmes has allowed just a 53% catch rate but allows 0.18 fantasy points per route covered and gets targeted 18% of the time. Hardman is too cheap not to play in my opinion, so I will be playing quite a bit of him.
Other Value Plays: Jerick McKinnon, Harrison Butker
Overall Slate Note
There are a few different ways to attack this slate. I anticipate a closer game than the 10-point line indicates, with the Chiefs pulling away in the end. I would prioritize the Chiefs' studs over Daniel Jones, but I really do love Booker tonight at the 1.5x spot. If you're going Mahomes captain, I would make sure to get at least Hardman and one of Hill/Kelce. I'll likely be split 50/50 between those two stacks. I'll make sure to spread ownership across all Giants pass catchers, both in the 1.5x spot and in lineups I use Jones at the 1.5x spot. There is a scenario where the Chiefs defense steps up and shuts the Giants down, so I'll be sure to have a Chiefs D/ST lineup with Darrel Williams at the money spot.
Have a good Monday everyone, good luck, and I'll talk to you again on Thursday.
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