RADIO
Happy Monday RotoBallers! I hope your Week Three has been profitable thus far, I had an excellent day yesterday cashing in the top 0.0006% of multiple single entry tournaments in the main slate and hitting both cash and GPP in all four slates. I look to keep that momentum rolling tonight, but this one is tough for me as I personally hate betting on my favorite team (the Eagles). It's almost ironic that I dislike it considering I know more about the ins and outs of the team more than any other team, but I just don't like having that extra scratch on a game I know will stress me out anyways. Anyways, we should be in for a fun one in Dallas tonight and I've been waiting all weekend for it. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on September 27th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - ($16,500 DK, $16,500 FD)
Jalen Hurts makes his third start of what I call his "pseudo-rookie" season, and despite a "clunker" by the Eagles' offense last week, he's played really well. He's thrown for 454 yards and three touchdowns in two games thus far, leading to a 107.97 passer rating. On top of that, he's got 144 yards and a score with his legs this year. Dallas provides a surprisingly decent passing defense so far this year, with a DVOA of 2.6% despite going against high-quality passing offenses like the Bucs and Chargers. However, Hurts has a solid rushing floor and Dallas struggles against the rush, with a 21.2% DVOA there. I lean towards this one being a high-scoring matchup, so I'll want both QBs at the captain spot in my lineups.
Dak Prescott - ($16,800 DK, $16,000 FD)
To be honest, I am shocked with how well Dak looks right now. Between last year's gruesome injury and his shoulder struggles in training camp, I didn't expect him to come out slinging it as he has. He's thrown for 640 yards in two games, with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He had a rough go last week against LA, but I think he'll get up for the first divisional matchup of the season, especially against the Eagles, and especially in their home opener. The Eagles have an average DVOA against the pass at 0.9%, but Dallas's passing offense has been explosive, with a 9.4% DVOA in that department. I'm slightly concerned with the fact that Michael Gallup is out and Amari Cooper is banged up, but CeeDee Lamb is good and healthy, and that should be good enough.
CeeDee Lamb ($14,700 DK, $12,500 FD)
Speaking of CeeDee Lamb, he's likely going to be my highest captain'd/MVP for tonight's matchup. As I mentioned when talking about Dak, the Cowboys will be without Michael Gallup, and Amari Cooper is banged up. This opens the door up for Lamb, who's logged 24 targets, 15 receptions, 185 yards, and a touchdown in the first two weeks of the season. He draws a strong matchup against the Eagles tonight, who come in with a 26.6% DVOA against "#1 WRs" thus far in the season. I expect Cooper to not be himself and Lamb to lead the team in every receiving category tonight.
Other Captains: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Miles Sanders ($8,000 DK, $11,000 FD)
Miles Sanders has one of the strongest DVOA matchups of the night, with the Cowboys having a 21.2% DVOA against the run game this season. I was low on Sanders from a fantasy perspective before this season, but he's been relatively decent so far with 129 yards on 28 carries. He's also caught five passes on seven targets for 43 yards. Dallas is tough against RBs in the passing game (-44.8% DVOA), so I think this will be about carries. I am concerned with Sanders considering I'm uncertain how many touches Kenny Gainwell will have, but I think Sanders racks up 60+ yards and finds the end zone for the first time this season tonight.
Tony Pollard ($7,600 DK, $10,000 FD)
While not many people saw Tony Pollard outperforming Zeke through two weeks, it's happened and we kind of have to accept it. Zeke just doesn't look like he used to, likely due to the massive amount of volume he saw early on in his career. Pollard on the other hand looks fresh as a daisy, and it's shown in his performance. He's logged 123 yards on 16 carries including a touchdown run last week and has caught all seven targets thrown his way for 60 yards. Philly has a very good 14.2% DVOA against the run game and -18.4% DVOA against RBs in the passing game, but the reason I like Pollard here is what he can do in the second level. While it seems that Zeke just falls forward for 7-8 yards, Pollard can scoot around and make things happen. This is a huge positive for him tonight, as the Eagles allow 1.45 2nd level yards per play this year. I'll have Zeke shares, but I'll have more Pollard shares.
Dallas Goedert ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
Dallas Goedert has the strongest matchup of the night according to DVOA, as the Cowboys have an 81.6% DVOA against TEs in the passing game this year. Goedert has made a habit of showing off in his namesake city. In three games in Dallas, he's caught 11 of 12 targets for 151 yards and two touchdowns, and these numbers don't even account for the 75-yard touchdown in 2018 that was called back because of one of the worst offensive pass interference calls I've ever seen. He's caught six of seven targets for 66 yards and a score through two games this year, but I'm higher on him due to the fact I think DeVonta Smith will have a down game tonight, as well as Zach Ertz potentially not playing because of a COVID issue.
Other Flex Plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Reagor
NFL DFS Value Plays
Kenneth Gainwell ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD)
I mentioned Gainwell earlier when talking about Miles Sanders, and while I'm not super high on him, he's produced enough this year to be worth a look especially against the Cowboys' run defense. Gainwell has played 34.11% of offensive snaps and has been given 15 rushing attempts across the first two weeks, leading to 51 yards and a score. He's also caught four passes on six targets for 24 yards. There is a real chance he vultures a touchdown in the red zone, as he and Sanders have both seen just one rushing attempt within the 20 this year.
Greg Zuerlein ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD)
In what looks like it could be a shootout and a slate that we want both QBs, we have to dig down and try and grab some value. I like Zuerlein in this matchup as the Eagles have allowed three field goals in two games. Two have been within 30 yards, but if Dallas's offense stalls late like they did last week, I think this one could be close enough that "Greg the Leg" will have to knock a 50+ yard bomb through the uprights late in this one. He has a decent floor as I think that this game will be high-scoring, and provides good value for us while playing parts of each offense.
Other Value Plays: Quez Watkins, Cedrick Wilson
Have a good Monday everyone, see you on Thursday.
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