X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

MNF NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Dolphins vs Saints Showdown

Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your holidays went great and your Week 16 has been profitable so far. I personally had a solid day yesterday, and hope to cap off my NFL week with a nice win tonight. We have a not-so-interesting matchup tonight as Tua and the Miami Dolphins (7-7) head to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints (7-7), who will give Ian Book his first career start. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down. 

In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on December 27th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

NFL DFS Captain Plays

Alvin Kamara ($18,300 DK, $16,500 FD)

Key Stats:

  • 2021 Stats: 184 carries, 668 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, 55 targets, 38 receptions, 348 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns.
  • Offensive Rushing DVOA: -13.6% (23rd)
  • Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -9.3% (18th)

I start off tonight's slate with Alvin Kamara. Kamara is (rightfully) the most expensive player on both sites, and he'll certainly be needed if New Orleans wants to get anything going with Ian Book tonight. Kamara should be able to rack up receptions as a safety blanket for Book, and with Sean Payton back on the sideline, it's hard to think he hasn't designed the offense around Kamara tonight.

Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Tua Tagovailoa, Ian Book

 

DeVante Parker ($14,100 DK, $10,500 FD)

Key Stats:

  • 2021 Stats: 56 targets, 34 receptions, 457 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
  • 2021 Data: 22.49% target rate, 16% red-zone target rate, 4 end zone targets.
  • Individual Matchup (vs Paulson Adebo): 14% target per route covered, 65% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered.

While I would prefer Waddle in this spot, Parker comes in a little bit cheaper and in a somewhat better matchup against Paulson Adebo. Parker had some road bumps this year with injuries but has been dominant when he's on the field. In seven games this year, he's drawn at least seven targets in six of seven games and has caught at least four passes in each start. With New Orleans coming into this one with the best defensive rush DVOA in the league, it's hard to think that Miami won't air it out all night. I'm expecting a big night from Parker, Waddle, Gesicki, and Miami's passing offense as a whole.

Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Tua Tagovailoa, Ian Book
Other Captains: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins D/ST

 

NFL DFS Flex Plays

Tua Tagovailoa ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD)

Key Stats:

  • 2021 Stats: 2,141 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
  • Offensive Pass DVOA: 5.5% (22nd)
  • Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.6% (14th)

Going back to what I said with DeVante Parker, New Orleans comes into this one with the best defensive rush DVOA in the league. This should open up the field for Tua to make throws. Tua has played much better of late, throwing at least two touchdowns in three of his last four games. The recent return of DeVante Parker has been huge for Tua, and I expect him and the Dolphins' passing game to keep it rolling in New Orleans tonight.

Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki

 

Marquez Callaway ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)

Key Stats:

  • 2021 Stats: 68 targets, 36 receptions, 555 yards, six touchdowns.
  • 2021 Data: 16.83% target rate, 14% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets.
  • Individual Matchup (vs Byron Jones): 16% target per route covered, 63% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered.

I have a tough time siding with anyone on New Orleans' offense tonight outside of Alvin Kamara, obviously due to Ian Book getting the nod for tonight's game. Regardless of whether Book is a good or even average quarterback, this will be the fourth signal-caller that the Saints will be sending out since Week 8. With that said though, Callaway has done a solid job getting open this season and is coming off of a huge game last week where he caught six of nine targets for 112 yards. I can't say he'll replicate that performance, but he is a solid tournament play to differentiate yourself from the field, and it very well could pay off if he can get open over the top and haul in a touchdown.

Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Ian Book, Tua Tagovailoa
Other Flex Plays: Mike Gesicki, Mark Ingram, Myles Gaskin

 

NFL DFS Value Plays

Jason Sanders ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD)

Key Stats:

  • 2021 Stats: 24 field goals attempted, 18 field goals made, 29/30 PAT.

With the state of the Saints' offense, you would think I'd prefer Brett Maher in this situation. My issue here is that I'm not even sure that New Orleans will even be able to move down the field. With that said though, I can see the Dolphins being able to move down the field with the Saints playing more of a bend-don't-break style of defense. This could open up the opportunity for Sanders to knock down a couple of field goals making him – you guessed it – optimal.

Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Tua Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin

 

Dolphins D/ST ($4,400 DK)

Key Stats:

  • 2021 Stats: 11 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, 37 sacks, three defensive touchdowns.

I've only said that the Saints will be starting rookie Ian Book a few times in this article – ha. But seriously, a team that's on QB4 for the season always creates an opportunity to take advantage of from a fantasy perspective. Not to mention, Miami's defense has been really good since the slow start to their season. They haven't allowed more than 20 points since Week 8 at Buffalo, logging at least five fantasy points per game in that span, and finishing three of those games with at least 17 fantasy points. It's a good spot for Miami's defense here, but I'm sure their ownership will reflect that.

Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Myles Gaskin, Tua Tagovailoa, Mike Gesicki
Other Value Plays: Brett Maher, Ty Montgomery, Nick Vannett

 

NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes

This slate is.... gross. My player pool will be relatively tight in this one, filled with mostly Miami's passing game. I will have some Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson shares in case of an absolute blowout. My only restrictions will be preventing both Gaskin and Johnson as well as Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram from appearing in the same lineup. Other than that though, there isn't much to say other than I hope this game is better than I expect it to be!

Best of luck tonight and I'll see you all in 2022!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Weekly DFS Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mitch Garver5 hours ago

Goes Hitless In Return To Cactus League Action
Austin Riley6 hours ago

Doubles In Return To Lineup On Saturday
Colby Thomas9 hours ago

Sustains Injury On Saturday
Josh Rojas9 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Thairo Estrada9 hours ago

Removed From Saturday's Contest
Nick Kurtz9 hours ago

Exits After Hit-By-Pitch
Tobias Myers10 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Brice Turang10 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
Amed Rosario14 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Jose Trevino14 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Bryce Eldridge14 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Blake Perkins14 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy14 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee15 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford15 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Colorado Rockies15 hours ago

Charlie Condon Out At Least Six Weeks With Broken Wrist
Bryce Miller15 hours ago

Ironing Out The Kinks In Spring Training
Logan Gilbert15 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Mookie Betts15 hours ago

Missing Tokyo Exhibition Games Due To Illness
Jesús Sánchez15 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez To Miss Four Weeks With Oblique Strain
Jon Gray15 hours ago

Has A Fractured Right Wrist
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
9
11
10
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
33
17
40
18
41
19
42

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

Tyron Smith Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

New York Jets and former long-time Dallas Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith was one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL for an extended period of time. He's made five All-Pro teams, two with the first team and two with the second team, been selected to eight Pro Bowls, and earned a spot on […]


Bills Defense - Von Miller IDP Rankings, D/ST Streamers, Fantasy Football Team Defense

Von Miller Top Landing Spots: 2025 NFL Free Agency Outlook

Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller, one of the greatest pass-rushers in NFL history, was released by his team on March 9, 2025. He had signed a six-year, $120 million deal with the team in 2022, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old wasn't able to make it to the end of that contract, so he's now looking for […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Staying Put - Impact Players Re-signed: Aaron Jones, Zach Ertz, Jaylen Warren, more

NFL free agency is a frenzy. As football fans, we love to see the movement around the league. It allows us to dream about the possibility of our team signing a fresh player who could make a serious impact. However, one cannot overlook the impact of re-signing significant contributors. While it is not as exciting […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends To Buy in 2025

My friend Josh used to make me listen to the Bring Me The Horizon song "Diamonds Aren't Forever," which begins with the line "We will never sleep, cause sleep is for the weak." That sentiment rings true in fantasy football dynasty leagues as well. You can't get complacent. You can't stop thinking about how to […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football WR Buy or Sell: Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, and Jordan Addison (2025)

The 2024 NFL Draft class had seven first-round wide receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze were selected in the top 10. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, and Xavier Legette were Day 1 selections. More importantly, Nabers and Thomas finished their rookie seasons as top-7 wide receivers in half-point PPR […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers, Draft Targets: Early 2025 Analysis

One of the biggest factors in winning fantasy football teams is finding middle-to-late-round sleepers. With wide receivers typically carrying the most drafted players of any position, it makes sense that taking multiple stabs at the position in search of hitting multiple-round values is the way to set yourself apart in drafts. For 2025, the draft […]


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

2025 NFL Free Agency Frenzy: Biggest Winners and Disappointments at Every Fantasy Football Position

NFL franchises will have an opportunity to reshape their rosters before the draft. Fantasy managers will have a chance to read the tea leaves and make measured strikes against their fantasy football opposition ahead of rookie drafts. Savvy managers will use this period to try to get the best return on some previous investments, as […]


DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Free Agency Fantasy Football Analysis: Fallers On New Teams (2025)

With the first wave of NFL free agency coming to an end, several fantasy-relevant players have signed on to new teams. The quarterback carousel still has several dominoes to fall, but Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and Kenny Pickett have found new homes within the first few days of the new league year. The running back […]


James Conner - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Fallers - Players Trending Down In 2025

Fantasy football players trending "down" can mean a few different things. It can mean aging veterans, a new situation for players, regression in production after a stellar season, a change in coordinators, or all of the above. It doesn't necessarily mean these players won't produce; it's just a warning sign to proceed cautiously. Ultimately, marking […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Free Agency Fantasy Fallout!

Michael F. Florio is back going over the any signings and trades that free agency week brought us! He discusses his winners and losers of players that changed teams - then does the same for players who were not moved but still had their value impacted! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2025)

The NFL offseason is starting to heat up, and the league's legal tampering period is set to begin on March 10 at noon Eastern. Free agents cannot officially sign until the new league year begins on March 12 at 4 p.m. Eastern, but deals will be agreed to, and news will be coming in quickly […]


Drake Maye - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Players To Target In Deep Leagues

Fantasy football sleepers are what make the game fun. There is nothing like landing an absolute stud in the double-digit rounds of your fantasy draft. The more teams in your league, the more important sleepers become. As the player pool shrinks, it is an absolute must to hit on at least one or two sleepers. […]


DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Avoids, Busts: 2025 NFL Free Agent Signings

The 2025 NFL free-agency period is well underway, and many wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, and running backs have already found their new homes. While some of them are in better landing spots, or at least should continue having solid production relative to their ADP (anticipated draft position) in fantasy football, some of them should […]