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Happy Monday RotoBallers! I hope your Week Six has been profitable so far. I had a solid day yesterday, once again sweeping the day in cash across the four major slates. Tonight we head to Tennessee as the Bills (4-1) come into town to take on the 3-2 Titans. Bookmakers have Tennessee favored at 5.5 points in this one, with the total sitting at 53.5. It doesn't appear that we should have any weather issues like last night, as the forecast is clear with the chance of rain at 0% throughout the game. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on October 18th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Josh Allen ($19,200 DK, $17,000 FD)
No surprise here, as Josh Allen is starting to hit his stride after a relatively rocky start to the 2021 season. Through five games, Allen has posted a 62.3% completion percentage as well as 1,370 yards, 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He matches up well with Tennessee, who comes into this one with a 22.7% DVOA against the pass, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Allen's been getting it done with his legs also, logging 188 yards and two rushing touchdowns so far this season. The Titans have quarterbacks to run for 62 yards and two touchdowns this season, so it's not far-fetched to say that Allen could find the end zone with his legs tonight. He'll be my highest-owned captain/MVP tonight, and I'll likely have him in the 1.5x spot in over 50% of my lineups.
Emmanuel Sanders ($14,700 DK, $10,000 FD)
I choose Sanders over Diggs here specifically for DraftKings. I think Diggs has the better night, but with such a top-heavy showdown slate, you'll need a lower-priced value option at the captain spot in some lineups. It's not like Sanders has lacked production either, catching 19 of 31 targets for 322 yards and four touchdowns to start the season. His fantasy production is more-or-less touchdown-dependent, but he did log 13.1 DK points in week four without catching a touchdown. He draws a solid matchup tonight as well, as the Titans have a DVOA of 37.7% against 'WR2s', which ranks 26th in the league. I love Sanders's upside and will have a bit of him at captain tonight, as it allows me to get all the higher-priced guys I want.
Other Captains: Stefon Diggs, Derrick Henry
NFL DFS Flex Plays
AJ Brown ($7,800 DK, $11,500 FD)
As long as he plays and is at or close to 100%, I'm a fan of A.J. Brown tonight. He's had a slow start to the season for sure, logging just 10 of 25 targets for 130 yards and just one touchdown. He's been slowed down by nagging injuries and is now questionable as I'm writing this with an illness. If he ends up being ruled out I have no problem making the quick pivot to Julio Jones, but I like Brown's matchup tonight. While the Bills' defense is elite, Brown gets a good matchup against Levi Wallace, who allows a 54% catch rate and 0.22 fantasy points per route, per PFF. Since I suspect Tre'Davius White to move around and cover both Brown and Jones, I'll make sure to have shares of both.
Dawson Knox ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD)
Dawson Knox has absolutely come alive this season, catching 18 passes on 24 targets for 261 yards and a whopping five touchdowns so far this year. While his price has (rightfully) exploded for his production, there's no reason not to be on the train tonight. He draws a solid matchup tonight against the Titans, who have allowed 123 yards and a touchdown on 13 catches to the tight end position this season. While these numbers are relatively low, the only "solid" tight end the Titans have faced this season was Dan Arnold, who logged six catches on eight targets for 64 yards last week. Rashaan Evans will likely be covering Knox on the inside, and he's allowed a 75% catch rate, and receivers are averaging 0.88 yards per route he covers. I think Knox's price is too high to consider him in a TON of my lineups, but he'll be in quite a few.
Other Flex Plays: Ryan Tannehill, Julio Jones
NFL DFS Value Plays
Cole Beasley ($5,400 DK, $7,500 FD)
Beasley has slowed down since week three, catching just three passes on four targets for 22 yards since then. We'll need value in this one, though, and Beasley can be just that for us. He has a great matchup against Tennessee and specifically against Chris Jackson who will likely be lined up across from him in the slot. Jackson has allowed an 82% catch percentage and 0.88 yards per route covered and 0.18 fantasy points per route. I'll have a decent amount of him tonight so I can pay up for the big boys.
Tyler Bass ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD)
Tyler Bass has quietly been one of the best kickers in the league over the last two years. So far this season, he's knocked down 11 of 12 field goals, all within 50 yards. The Titans have allowed just seven field goals in five games this season, so I do think his upside is limited. However, I expect the Bills to put up a bunch of points one way or the other and Bass hasn't missed an extra point this season, so I think he is a viable value play that allows more freedom in roster construction.
Other Value Plays: Marcus Johnson, Randy Bullock, Bills D/ST
OVERALL SLATE NOTE: While this isn't necessarily a "tight player pool" type of slate, I believe it does heavily favor Buffalo from a fantasy player perspective. I'll likely have a lot of 4-2 and 4-1 Buffalo lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively, as well as mixing in some 5-1 Buffalo lineups on DK. While I didn't write him up in full, I believe Marcus Johnson is the best punt on the slate, especially now with A.J. Brown's uncertainty. I'll make sure to have my Derrick Henry hedge lineups, but between game-script and the strength of Buffalo's defense, I won't be as high on him as I would in a more even matchup. I'll probably go lighter on this slate than most, but I still think there's money to be made here.
Have a good Monday everyone, see you on Thursday.
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