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The San Francisco 49ers are hanging onto the NFC’s final wild card spot, and the Arizona Cardinals are right on the cusp. If the 49ers beat the Cardinals in Mexico City on Monday Night Football this week, it would put the Niners’ chances of making the playoffs at ninety percent and virtually eliminate the Cards from contention. If the Cards win, they stay alive.
Who do you put your money on?
If you take a look at the data in the SHARP App, you can find that the 49ers are a good pick to win. The AI prediction gives the 49ers an 80% probability to win.
The SHARP App scours the sportsbooks for the best lines and found 49ers at -350 on BetMGM. That’s giving the Niners an implied win probability of 77.78%, so you could have a slight advantage there.
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49ers' Advantage vs the Spread
You’d get an even bigger advantage if you bet the 49ers on the spread. The 49ers are favored by -8 in the market, and SHARP gives you a -8 line at FanDuel. But the AI says that the 49ers should be favored to win by 9.5.
If you want to take the Cardinals, SHARP found a +8.5 line at FanDuel, which could turn an 8-point Cards loss from a push to a win.
The line opened at SF by -5.5, then it began moving towards a bigger SF blowout after Arizona QB Kyler Murray’s hamstring injury was reported and forced him to miss last week’s game. But the line still doesn’t capture San Francisco’s true advantage over Arizona according to the analytics.
Cardinals' Quarterback Situation
Murray is considered a game-time decision, and you might get stuck with an unfavorable line if you bet now, with him expected to likely miss the game if he ends up playing. But I believe the 49ers are still 8+ point favorites even if Murray plays.
The Cardinals have already lost six games with Murray starting, and four of their six losses were by 8 points or more. The Cardinals have never beaten a team with an ELO rating as high as the 49ers—although they did lose to the Vikings (superior to the 49ers) by just 6 in Week 8. On the other side, the 49ers have won four games by over 8 points.
Where the Sharp Money Is at
You can see 53% of betters are taking the 49ers on the spread. However, 56% of the money is on Arizona. The disparity between the tickets and the money could indicate sharps are taking Arizona, but it is not a massive disparity, so it may not be anything. On the moneyline, betting is almost equal—49% on San Fran—but more money—55%—is on San Fran.
The over/under is a different story. The sharps are pushing their money on under. Two-thirds of betters are picking the two teams to combine for over 43.5, while 64% of the money is going on the under side. That suggests people who do sports betting for a living are taking the under. NFL scoring is down this season, and the over/under figures books provide have yet to catch up. The AI model agrees with the sharps. It is predicting the two teams combine for 41.
Monday Night Football Prediction
If Murray misses the game and DeAndre Hopkins is somewhat bothered by his hamstring, an injury that caused him to be limited at preparation, the Cardinals offense will underwhelm. The run-heavy 49ers could get out to an early lead and cruise. The result could be a 24-14 San Francisco victory.
Betting Picks: The Niners beat the spread and keep the game total under 43.5.
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