How to Approach MLB Rookies in 2020 Re-draft Leagues

Eric Samulski analyzes the value of MLB rookies in redraft fantasy baseball leagues for a shortened 2020 season. Which players are sure things to make an impact and who should are longshots to avoid?

While the players and owners continue to trade demands for getting the 2020 season on its feet, we're going to turn our attention to fantasy. This article will specifically look at players who have yet to make their major league debut (or come up for more than the proverbial cup of coffee) and how fantasy owners should approach them for re-draft leagues. We're not going to discuss keeper value or anything of that nature; this will only discuss how to assess the ability of rookie players to help you for the 2020 season.

A couple of things before we get started. The biggest one is that I'm operating under the assumption that there will also be an expanded instructional league or Arizona Fall League while the MLB season goes on. There have been enough discussions about this that I assume it will happen. Even if there are no official MiLB games, organizations are not going to let their best minor league players simply take a year off. What this means is that players who would not get meaningful innings or at-bats in the major leagues will not be called up to sit on the bench but will instead get consistent reps in during these instructional league games. So, you're not going to see Alex Kirilloff sit on the bench behind a stacked Minnesota lineup, Andrew Vaughn promoted to sit behind Jose Abreu, or Grayson Rodriguez come up to face major league hitters.

This article also operates under the assumption that any rookie added to the Major League roster for this shortened season will lose a year of service time control. That means teams who are unlikely to compete, even in a shortened season, are also unlikely to burn a year of team control for less than half a season of performance. That means I'm assuming we don't see players like Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodriguez, or J.J. Bleday, whose teams are highly unlikely to compete in 2020. What remains are players I've broken down into four categories: Sure Things, Likely Contributors, Part-Time Players, and Longshots.

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Sure Things

These are the players we always expected to come up. They're clearly ready, and there's no reason for teams to manipulate their service time anymore.

Count on regular at-bats or innings: Jo Adell, Luis Robert, Gavin Lux, Dylan Carlson, Sean Murphy, Nick Madrigal, Evan White, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Mitch Keller, MacKenzie Gore, Jesus Luzardo, Spencer Howard, Justin Dunn, Justus Sheffield

Robert, Carlson, Murphy, Madrigal, White, Lewis, Keller, Dunn, Sheffield, and Luzardo always seemed like givens to break camp with their teams are get called up at the first opportunity. They're guys you should draft with the same confidence you would have had earlier, depending on your personal valuation of them. The shorter season does benefit a pitcher like Luzardo, who was going to be on an innings cap, so make sure you factor that into your rankings, but most of the hitters should stay around the same ADP you would have taken them at. Personally, I've been a fan of Keller and Carlson all offseason and think that Kyle Lewis could make for a solid bounceback candidate as some of the shine has washed off his once sparkling prospect image.

Gore and Howard were trending towards substantial major league innings before the shutdown, so I expect them to open the short season with their major league teams. Both the Padres and Phillies expect to be in contention, and both Gore and Howard are dynamic enough talents to help make that a viable option. With likely expanded rotations, Howard can be a starter even while the Phillies keep trying to get value out of Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Nick Pivetta.

The universal DH helps Lux immensely. Now that Mookie Betts is in town, it would have forced Cody Bellinger to 1B more often than last season in order to get Joc Pederson and AJ Pollock into the lineup. As a result, Lux would have to worry about splitting time with Max Muncy and Justin Turner, but that's no more with Muncy or Joc able to slide into the DH role. The expanded rosters also help Fraley, who could find his way into the starting lineup for Seattle but was on the bubble before the shutdown.

I've heard some people say that Adell still needs more time to develop and might not be up when the short season begins. My opinion is that the Angels signed Anthony Rendon to go for titles while Mike Trout was at his peak, and having Adell up at the beginning of the shortened season gives them the chance to take advantage of his dynamic talent and catch lightning in a bottle. I just can't see them rolling with Brian Goodwin as they go for a title. Plus, the long layoff has made it more likely that Shohei Ohtani can pitch for a majority of the season, which might free up some DH opportunities if/when the Angels want to give him a rest in lead-up to his starts.

Semi-regular at-bats or innings: Carter Kieboom, Kevin Cron, Dustin May, Brusdar Graterol, Anthony Kay 

I think all five of these guys will be up at the start of the season but won't be locked into full-time roles. Anthony Kay is potentially just holding a rotation spot for Nate Pearson (and I'm not sold on Kay as a prospect on his own), and both Dustin May and Brusdar Graterol will likely be part of the Dodgers' expanded pitching staff, with Graterol strictly in a relief role and May mixing it up with a few starts.

Kevin Cron will be an option for the DH in Arizona but will likely be a power bat off the bench, while Kieboom will be part of a rotation at 2B/3B in Washington with Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, and Howie Kendrick. With the Nationals trying to defend their title, they're not going to ride Kieboom if he struggles at the plate like he did last year.

Likely Contributors

These are the players who are likely to make the expanded major league rosters. Some of them are players who were likely mid-season call ups before the shortened season, and others are players who may be pushed to help teams compete for a title in a season where anything can happen. Regardless, they're likely to see enough opportunities to make them viable in re-draft leagues - just not as consistently or early on as the guys in the tier above.

Bats: Brendan Rodgers, Sam Hilliard, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Nico Hoerner, Alec Bohm, Mauricio Dubon, Willi Castro, Ryan Mountcastle, Monte Harrison, Jared Oliva,

Brendan Rodgers and Sam Hilliard are here because they play for the Rockies, who never seem to want to commit to prospects. With the universal DH, Daniel Murphy should slot in there, freeing up 1B for Ryan McMahon, 2B for Garrett Hampson, and an OF spot for Sam Hilliard. That would make Rodgers the main back-up infielder and the leader to take over 2B if Hampson falters again. However, it's the Rockies, so we can't count on that playing out as we hope. However, I'd be open to gambling on Hilliard in my re-draft leagues for his upside.

Hayes, Hoerner, Dubon, Castro, and Bohm are all likely to see time with the big club this year, and possibly the majority of the season in Hoerner's case. Hayes, Castro, and Bohm could also be mid-season call-ups, but none of them are guys I'd really prioritize in a draft. Hayes doesn't possess a seductive fantasy skillset, Castro will likely settle in as a 15 SB regular but he'll start by hitting at the bottom order of a bad offense, and Bohm likely won't see enough at-bats in a strong lineup to be anything but a late-round stash in redraft.

Dubon is likely to be the Giants' main second baseman, but he's likely to hit at the bottom of a mediocre lineup and I don't see him getting full-time starts with the additions of Wilmer Flores and Yolmer Sanchez. As for Hoerner, I'd imagine that he's up all year, but the Cubs also signed Jason Kipnis and have given David Bote reps at second base as well. Since they're in "win-now mode," I see them riding the veterans more than Hoerner in a shortened season where every game counts that much more.

With Trey Mancini likely not to play this year, there is a strong chance that Ryan Mountcastle sees lots of time with the Orioles, but I'm not convinced it will be at the start of the season. Chris Davis and Renato Nunez can't going anywhere, and the Orioles have filled up on fringey OF prospects like Dwight Smith Jr., Cedric Mullins, Ryan McKenna and D.J. Stewart, who seem likely to get chances early in the season. What's more, they have little chance to compete and may not want to waste a year of Mountcastle's service time, which is the only reason he's not in the first group.

That leaves us with two outfielders who have intriguing skillsets and are worth late-round fliers in redrafts leagues. The trade of Starling Marte freed up a spot for Jared Oliva, but he doesn't have a single at-bat above AA, and the Pirates aren't going to be competitive this season, so it's hard for me to picture them rushing him up at the start of the year. Monte Harrison's time in Miami will depend on Lewis Brinson. Miami is certainly going to give Brinson the start of the season to show that he can still have long-term value, but the second he proves otherwise, I'd imagine Harrison will be up. If it does click for Brinson, then Harrison may be up later in the season if the Marlins can find a taker for Corey Dickerson or Isan Diaz falters, causing them to move Villar back to 2B.

Arms: Nate Pearson, Forrest Whitley, AJ Puk, Kyle Wright, Deivi Garcia, Brady Singer

Many people want to put Pearson in the first tier, and I do too, but I also saw how the Blue Jays toyed around with Vlad Jr. for service time reasons. Pearson is ready, and the AL East is weak this year, but the Blue Jays are certainly building this thing for the future and may choose to hold Pearson down until they don't lose a year of service time. Whitley is another arm who's ready now, but the Astros are too stacked in the rotation to give him immediate innings. There is a chance he makes starts this year if Austin Pruitt or Josh James falter, but I wouldn't bet on them being consistent.

Puk and Wright will likely be on their big league teams from the start, serving as bullpen arms who can also spot start with larger rotations likely. I imagine the A's will be cautious with Puk's innings since he got hurt in spring training, so I wouldn't expect too many starts from him, but Wright could sneak into a regular role for the Braves if Felix Hernandez falters. The problem is that there are many good young arms on the Braves who could take that spot (more on that later), so it's hard to bank on with any certainty.

I expect both Deivi Garcia and Brady Singer to make their debuts in the latter part of the season. The Yankees could use Garcia out of the bullpen, where many people think he could settle long-term, but I imagine Singer gets starts for the Royals. His ceiling is as a real-life number three, and the Royals aren't good, so I wouldn't go crazy trying to get him, but I think he'll get consistent innings down the stretch.

Part-Time Players

There are three types of players here: guys who have likely developed all they can in the minor and will make good bench pieces with the expanded rosters, players with one or two elite skills that could help push a competitive team over the edge, or guys who will likely only see enough time to not waste a season of eligibility.

Bench Pieces: Abraham Toro, Austin Hays, Daniel Johnson, Brent Rooker, Bobby Bradley, Kevin Padlo, Randy Arozarena

I expect all of the above players to spend all, or most, of the year with a major league team given the likely expanded roster size. Toro would be the most exciting from a talent standpoint (the guy just flat hits), but I don't see him getting more than the occasional start in Houston. Hays could see time in the OF in Baltimore, but he struggled in his first shot, and it depends what they want to do with Mountcastle and all of the other guys mentioned above. Johnson could be fantasy viable, but he needs Greg Allen to give up his starting job, which isn't a stretch, and it's why I like Johnson the most out of this group in re-draft leagues.

These next guys are all deep league bench pieces at most this season. Rooker can hit but can't really play the field, and Minnesota's offense is stacked, so I think he's just a bench bat. Same goes for Bradley, who can crush baseballs but also strikes out too much, and isn't pushing Carlos Santana out of the lineup. Padlo and Arozarena are intriguing options who are likely going to be buried on a deep Tampa Bay team that will prevent them from seeing meaningfully consistent at-bats.

One-Two tool guys: Khalil Lee, Jorge Mateo

Both of these guys can flat out fly. Mateo had a shot to win the A's 2B job, but I see him as more of a bench bat behind Tony Kemp and Franklin Baretto. Since Mateo can also play the OF, he may make 2-3 starts a week, which could make him viable in deep leagues because of his wheels. Lee likely won't be up until the end of the season, but his speed makes him immediately viable given that he'd see regular at-bats. Just don't expect too much else in his first taste of the big leagues.

Part-Time guys: Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Ian Anderson, Sixto Sanchez, Luis Patino, Clarke Schmidt 

Every guy on this list is highly talented, but I doubt they see more than a handful of major league innings this year. They either play on bad teams that won't want to rush them (Mize, Manning, Sanchez) or face too much competition to get innings right away (Anderson, Patino, Schmidt).

I think Schmidt is more of a bullpen option in 2020, so he's my least favorite of the group even though he's likely to see the most major league games. Anderson needs a few other arms to falter (Wright, Hernandez, and Bryse Wilson), the Marlins don't seem too keen to rush Sanchez, and the Tigers were babying Mize a little bit last year as he dealt with some forearm tightness. If I was just ranking them for 2020, I would go: Patino, Manning, Anderson, Mize, Schmidt, Sanchez, but I wouldn't be spending anything other than a lottery ticket late-round pick. You're going to be stashing these guys for a while and might get nothing out of it.

Longshots

These are the guys we want to see up, but things will need to break their way. For example, they'll need to show clear growth in the instructional leagues or their teams (who we didn't expect to compete) will have to be performing surprisingly well and in need of reinforcements to make the most of the opportunity.

Wander Franco, Jarred Kelenic, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Andres Gimenez, Lewin Diaz, Seth Beer, Joey Bart, Bobby Dalbec, Tarik Skubal 

Basically, I'd love to see these guys in the majors this year, but I just don't see it based on how far away they are (Franco, Lewis, Gimenez) how stacked their teams are (Kirliloff, Beer) or how poorly their teams are set up to compete for this season (Bart, Diaz, Skubal, Dalbec). Kelenic, Diaz, and Dalbec seem to be the most likely to debut, but I don't think the Mariners are going to risk a year of Kelenic's eligibility for an 80-game season, same with Miami and Diaz, especially with Jesus Aguilar in town.

The Red Sox signing Mitch Moreland to pair with Michael Chavis makes the 1B situation muddy, and Dalbec isn't pushing Rafael Devers out of 3B or J.D. Martinez out of DH, so there is nowhere to play him, especially in a season where Boston isn't likely to compete.

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