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Welcome to MLB Opening Day! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A few games we can look at today include the Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies.
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Indians @ Tigers
More or Less Contest:
Shane Bieber more than 8.5 strikeouts and Matthew Boyd more than 4.5 strikeouts
Shane Bieber is an elite talent and coming off a 2020 campaign in which he piled up 122 punchouts in just 71 1/3 IP. He averaged a 41% K rate, which ranked him in the top two percent of the league and will be facing a Tigers lineup that ranked last in baseball in 2020 with a 28.2% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. Bieber faced the Tigers twice in 2020 as well and came away with 21 strikeouts across 14 2/3 IP. The more than certainly feels like the correct play in this one.
Matthew Boyd had his struggles in 2020 but still managed to strike out nearly one batter per inning as he posted 60 strikeouts across 60 1/3 IP. He has looked strong this spring as he has posted a 2.45 ERA while striking out 19 across 18 1/3 IP. While the Indians only posted a 20.8% K rate vs. lefties in 2020, Boyd did manage to strike out nine across 10 1/3 IP against them in 2020 and managed to strike out six in 5 1/3 IP in his first start. Given that it is early in the season and pitchers typically have the advantage, the more than seems like the correct play again here.
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Blue Jays @ Yankees
More or Less Contest
Gerrit Cole more than 18.5 pitching outs and Hyun-Jin Ryu less than 15.5 pitching outs
This early in the season it could be kind of tricky to determine how deep a pitcher will go, but Cole is a horse and should be able to get into the sixth, especially with teams wanting to keep the pen healthy in the early going. The Yankees allowed Cole to ramp up late in spring and he threw 10 2/3 innings combined in his previous two starts. He has also looked sharp this spring as he posted a 2.45 ERA and .98 WHIP while striking out 24 in 18 1/3 IP. While the Jays do have a formidable lineup, Cole managed to go seven strong while striking out seven and allowing just one earned run in his lone start against them in 2020.
Ryu is not a guy that has pitched deep into games as he went just seven IP once in 2020 and rarely went more than six IP. In camp this year, he never threw more than four innings in a game and is likely not going to go further than five in this one. The Yankees are also stout against left-handed pitching and could get Ryu into trouble even sooner.
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Dodgers @ Rockies
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Trevor Story, Mookie Betts, and Cody Bellinger more than 10.5 fantasy points
We have a matchup between the Rockies and Dodgers at Coors Field on Opening Day, so it only makes sense to get a play in for this game. While Kershaw will be on the mound for the Dodgers, Story has had success against left-handed pitchers, and more specifically, against Kershaw. Over his career, Story has a .310/.386/.622 slash line with 47 HR, 120 RBI, and 79 BB across 641 at-bats against lefties. He has also hit Kershaw to the tune of a .300 AVG with three doubles across 20 at-bats. He makes a strong case to be included in this prop.
Mookie Betts is next up in this prop selection. He should be batting leadoff in this one, which increases his chances of getting that extra at-bat and makes him all the more important to include here. He has faced German Marquez seven times in his career and is 4-for-6 with three R, two RBI, and one walk. Betts also hits right-handed pitching extremely well as he has posted a .400+ wOBA in each of the previous three seasons and also hit all 16 of his HR off righties in 2020.
Cody Bellinger makes a ton of sense here as well as he has posted a .346/.440/.654 slash line with 19 extra-base hits in 107 at-bats at Coors Field. While he has not had a ton of success off of Marquez, he has homered off him twice and could certainly do so again in this one. He will also be hitting in the middle of the lineup, which should give him ample opportunities to produce.
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