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Jarod Rupp breaks down the latest trades from this past week: who is involved, where are they going, and what is their 2024 fantasy baseball outlook in their new environment?
Last Friday, January 7, we saw a smattering of MLB trades. These were by no means any of the biggest names of the offseason, but we saw a former Cy Young winner and multiple All-Stars change teams.
The three trades involved seven players and four teams, lefties, righties, youngsters, vets, pitchers, and position players.
Let's check in on those trades and see what, if any, fantasy relevance could be involved for each player.
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Giants-Mariners Trade and 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Giants Get: LHP Robbie Ray
Mariners Get: OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, cash considerations
Robbie Ray is arguably the biggest name of all these players, but unfortunately he is still in the middle of a recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2023. Ray was an All-Star back in 2017, then won the AL Cy Young while leading the league in ERA in 2021. The Cy Young season allowed him to cash in during free agency, signing on with the Mariners for five years and $115 million. After a good-but-not-great season in 2022, he made just one start in 2023 before being shut down and undergoing Tommy John surgery.
The Giants are in dire need of pitching after relying on Logan Webb and Alex Cobb as their only true starters last season along with a horde of "openers." Cobb, however, is expected to miss the first month of the season after hip surgery and Ray won't be there to help at the outset either, with his return from TJ surgery coming closer to mid-season. The Giants' top prospect, LHP Kyle Harrison, received seven starts in 2023 with mixed results but should be a starter again to begin 2024.
Outside of those named above according to RosterResource, the Giants will deploy Ross Stripling, Keaton Winn, and Tristan Beck, but these will probably be their 2024 "openers" or bulk innings guys until the cavalry arrives (Cobb and Ray). It's possible they still work out a deal for free agent Blake Snell as well. He would be a good fit as pointed out in the "Blake Snell Landing Spots" article.
As for Ray, when he returns, he'll likely be a decent spot starter for fantasy purposes as he'll rack up the K's (career 28.9% K%), but the walks have always been an issue (career 10.0% BB%). Even in his Cy Young season, he had a BB% of 6.7%, which is considered only slightly above average. In every other season since 2014, he's owned a BB% of 8.0% or higher, except for 2021.
The southpaw also has a career HR/FB% of 15.5%, which is off-the-charts bad. Per FanGraphs, any number above 13.0% is considered awful. Even in his best season, 2021, his HR/FB% was 15.9%. That same season, his LOB% was 90.1% -- likely bolstered by his 32.1% K% -- despite a career LOB% of 77.3%.
So there are plenty of signs showing 2021 was an anomaly and those types of numbers should not be expected whenever he does return to the mound, although Oracle Park is one of the less HR-friendly parks, which could help keep his ERA in check. His FGDC projected ERA of 3.85 and a K-BB% of around 19.0% sounds about right.
Mitch Haniger will be reunited with his former club, having spent the 2017-2022 seasons in Seattle. His best all-around season was in 2018 when he was an All-Star, hitting .285-26-93-90-8 with a wOBA of .367 and wRC+ of 137. He also had a great year in 2021, hitting .253-39-100-110-1 with a wOBA of .340 and 120 wRC+. Outside of those two seasons in which he played 157 games each, however, he's never played more than 96 games.
The list of injuries is long for Haniger, including left/right oblique strains, ankle sprain, core abdominal surgery, and 64 games last season due to a right forearm fracture. If the 33-year-old can stay healthy, he'll be a powerful bat in the Mariners lineup, which they will need after the departure of Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez. FGDC projections have him with 23 HR, 68 RBI, and 61 R with a wOBA of .313 and wRC+ of 102 in 126 games.
Considering his age and injury history, perhaps he gets more ABs at DH and fewer starts in the OF in hopes of keeping him upright, which could boost those numbers up a tad. Whatever the case, he'll cost you nothing in drafts and there's upside in the power department if that's what you're looking for.
Anthony DeSclafani has shown the ability to be a decent starter at times, but he -- like Ray and Haniger -- has seen his fair share of injuries, especially over the last two seasons. The veteran righty had one of his best seasons as a pro just a few years ago in 2021, going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 16.3% K-BB%, and 152 K in 167 2/3 IP. However, he started just five games in 2022 due to an ankle injury that ended up requiring surgery and was shut down in late July of 2023 after 99 2/3 IP due to a flexor strain.
He should be ready to go by next season, but will likely be more of a bulk relief guy since the Mariners are currently set in regard to the rotation. With his experience, he'll be a valuable asset in the event one of the projected starters is befallen by injury or needs an extra day of rest. For fantasy purposes though, he likely won't provide much value unless he does make his way into the rotation, but even then only offers career K-BB% of 14.6% to go along with his 4.20 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, and HR/FB% of 13.5%.
Rays-Mariners Trade and 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Rays Get: INF Jose Caballero
Mariners Get: OF Luke Raley
The Rays thought they were set for the future at shortstop, but with Wander Franco no longer in the picture, they needed to turn somewhere else. Taylor Walls played 32 games there last season but had hip surgery in October. He's expected to be ready for the start of the season, but in the event he's not, Jose Caballero could be an insurance policy. They also have their top prospect Junior Caminero, but at this point it's not certain he'll be on the Opening Day roster, and he may end up at third anyway.
Caballero's offensive numbers don't jump off the page, but he did have a Contact% of 78.6% last season and a BB% of 10%. This allowed him to post a .343 OBP and swipe 26 bags in 280 PA. With regular playing time, say 550 PA, that would be about a 50 SB pace. You'll want to keep an eye on what he does in the spring, because if he's the Rays' shortstop option out of the gate, with a Contact%, BB%, and speed like that he could be a sneaky play until he relinquishes the job to someone else.
Luke Raley has just three MLB seasons under his belt, but he'll head into the 2024 season at age 29. Last year was the first time he got regular playing time in those three seasons and he produced admirably. He hit .249-19-49-56-14 with a wOBA of .353 and wRC+ of 130 in 441 PA. He probably won't get many more at-bats than that in Seattle, as he's currently projected to be in a platoon situation per RosterResource, so don't expect an increase to 20+ HR unless he's forced to play regularly.
Assuming the platoon situation and going against righties, that should be a good thing for Raley and the Mariners. Looking at his splits, the lefty slashed .247/.497/.834, had a wOBA of .357, and wRC+ of 133 against RHP versus .268/.439/.741, .319 wOBA, and 107 wRC+ against LHP. Without much of a track record, it's hard to say if last season's numbers are repeatable, especially with a low Contact% of 63.6% and a high K% of 31.5%, but keep an eye on him in the event he's thrust into an everyday role.
Rays-Cardinals Trade and 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Rays Get: OF Richie Palacios
Cardinals Get: RHP Andrew Kittredge
Richie Palacios has only two years of big league experience, with just 225 PA across those two seasons. In 2022, the 26-year-old had zero HR in 123 PA. In the small sample of 2023, however, he had a mini-power breakout, hitting six HR in just 102 PA. Without much of a power profile in the minors, based on his first season in the bigs, and looking at his launch angle averages from the last two seasons that actually decreased in 2023 to 6.3 from 13.5 in 2022, the power numbers of 2023 cannot be expected to continue.
Andrew Kittredge was an All-Star as a reliever in 2021, posting a 1.88 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, and a K-BB% of 22.0% across 71 2/3 IP, but underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2022. He returned in August of last season and had 10 K in 11 2/3 IP with a 3.09 ERA. The veteran goes into the season at age 34 and will provide bullpen depth. Barring something catastrophic in the St. Louis bullpen, he's off the fantasy radar.
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