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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/23/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
We've got a full slate of games with some coming in the afternoon today, but we're going to focus on the matchups at night to find our favorite home run props. Remember, with these bets, it's important to only use a smaller portion of your bankroll because of their low probability and inflated lines.
The process in finding these home run props includes batter vs. pitcher data, batted ball metrics, lefty-right splits, and weather conditions. We also have to consider price because we don't want to odds that are too expensive here.
Keep reading to see my favorite home run prop bets from MLB games on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, April 23:
- Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers
- Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
- Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
- Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers
Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings)
Corbin Carroll is off to a blistering start this season, slashing .323/.398/.646 with seven home runs in 108 plate appearances. The Diamondbacks outfielder is picking up right where he left off from the second half last year, where he hit 17 home runs in 63 games after the All-Star Break.
Corbin Carroll new swing has helped Carroll become one of the top 10 players in the MLB.
Love this guy
— 🌵 Mr. Az (@MrAzSports) April 19, 2025
This hot streak is supported by improvements in batted ball metrics, with Carroll registering a 17.1% barrel rate, which is a significant increase from last year (7.2%). Carroll has also set a new career-high in maximum exit velocity at 115.8 MPH (previously was 113.8 MPH).
The D-Backs superstar has homered twice in his last six games. It looks like a good spot to target him vs Rays righty Taj Bradley, who has allowed a 1.21 HR/9 or worse in each of his three seasons. Carroll has had success vs Bradley, homering one with a .771 xwOBA in 29 plate appearances.
At (+360) odds, we're getting a reasonable number on one of the hottest hitters in baseball, so let's ride with Carroll to get his eighth homer of the season.
Marcus Semien OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)
Marcus Semien smokes a 3-run homer over the fence in left center 💪 pic.twitter.com/jv5GU13vBF
— MLB (@MLB) April 23, 2025
Marcus Semien has gotten off to a slow start, putting up a .160/.231/.247 slash with two home runs in 91 plate appearances. But this is a veteran with a strong track record, so we have to be patient with the Rangers' second baseman. Remember that Semien has 23+ home runs in each of his last four seasons.
We got an encouraging development from Semien last night. After being bumped down to fifth in the batting order, Semien responded with a three-run home run. We all know how homers can come in bunches, so perhaps this can be the start of a power binge for Semien.
You have to love the spot at Sutter Health Park, where the A's are playing in Sacramento. This has played as a bandbox so far, with home runs flying out of the stadium. It also helps that Semien has had success vs tonight's pitcher in JP Sears. In 25 career plate appearances, Semien has two homers with a .452 xwOBA vs Sears.
The price is a bit inflated at (+400) odds considering Semien's production this year, but I'm willing to take the plunge given the ballpark context and matchup vs Sears.
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Yainer Diaz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)
Yainer Diaz is another hitter off to a modest start to the year, including only one homer in 74 plate appearances. While this is a 26-year-old catcher with a career-high of 23 homers (16 HR last season), I like the spot at home vs righty Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays tonight.
YAINER DIAZ. GRAND SLAM. pic.twitter.com/ZtwN9BxESa
— Houston Astros (@astros) April 12, 2025
We've seen Diaz perform well vs Francis in a small sample, going 2-for-4 with one homer and a .654 xwOBA. It also helps that Francis has had issues with the long ball so far this season, as highlighted by his 1.96 HR/9. There's a chance that this is the type of matchup to get Diaz on the right track.
We should also point out that there are some signs that Diaz could be getting out of his slump, as he's hit safely in four of his last five starts. Despite the lack of power so far, the Astros catcher has increased his barrel rate from 7.6% to 9.1%, so it feels like only a matter of time before he goes yard.
We're getting an appealing price at (+550) odds when you consider Diaz's success vs Francis, so let's take a chance on the Astros catcher to hit his second homer of the season.
Zach Neto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings)
We'll take a Zach Neto on the rocks 💪 pic.twitter.com/0InO1V1oVN
— MLB (@MLB) April 20, 2025
Zach Neto is coming off a terrific season where he homered 23 times in 602 plate appearances as a 23-year-old. We saw the Angels' shortstop put up an impressive 8.4% barrel rate and 111.3 MPH maximum exit velocity that year.
The Angels got back one of their best players in Neto on April 18. It took only three games for Neto to hit his first homer of the season. Furthermore, he's already hit two barrels in nine batted ball events, which is good for an absurd 22.2% barrel rate.
We've got a good matchup on tap vs Andrew Heaney, as Neto has gone 2-for-5 with one homer and a .698 xwOBA vs the veteran lefty. It also helps that Neto has done well against southpaws in his career, registering a 159 wRC+.
At (+500) odds, we're getting a terrific price on an emerging star who continues to tap into his developing power. It looks like Neto's shoulder injury is behind him, given the strong batted ball metrics, so let's roll with the Angels shortstop to get his second homer of the season in this spot.
Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+800 DraftKings)
Rhys Hoskins sends his first homer of the season 440 feet 💥 pic.twitter.com/KQ6I3Xsn2k
— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2025
Rhys Hoskins is a veteran with a strong track record of hitting home runs, putting up 26+ homers in each of his seasons where he got at least 400 plate appearances. So far this year, the former Phillie has three long balls in 21 games.
While the matchup on paper looks tough vs Logan Webb in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, if we look under the hood, we see that this is an appealing wager, especially at the longshot (+800) odds.
For one, Hoskins has had success vs Webb, putting up one homer with a .451 xwOBA in six plate appearances. Secondly, we're getting favorable weather conditions in this spot. According to FantasyLabs, 13 MPH winds are blowing out in San Francisco tonight, which could turn fly balls into home runs.
It also helps that Hoskins is starting to heat up, as all three of his homers this year have come in his last six games. Perhaps this is the start of a hot streak, making it a good idea to ride the wave with the veteran first baseman. Let's take a shot on Hoskins at such an appealing price at +800.
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