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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/15/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Today, I cover my favorite prop to bet: home runs. For those of you who have ventured into our RotoBaller Discord, you have probably discovered an array of home run bets from me already this season. We have had our ups and downs, but with the weather heating up, so are we.
To be completely transparent, home runs are much more challenging to predict than other player props. But they are also more rewarding, with better odds and arguably the most exciting bets to watch cash if you get to watch the slugger you wagered on go yard! I encourage you to play small with these bets, but throwing them in a round-robin is a fun way to root for them.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for the MLB games on Tuesday, April 15, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, April 15:
- Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets
- Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
- Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
- Brenton Doyle | Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
Trevor Story OVER 0.5 home runs (+600 FanDuel)
The Boston Red Sox will play their second game in as many days at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. This is a minor league stadium where the Yankees' affiliate plays its games. It is a stadium not built to sustain wind, and it will be in the mid-70s tonight.
The BoSox will face right-hander Ryan Pepiot, who has struggled with the long ball in 2025. Pepiot has a 2.25 HR/9 this season, a significant spike from his 1.18 HR/9 in 2024. Pepiot allowed a 45.6 percent FB last season, and in this park, I believe his HR/9 will float around the mark it is now.
Pepiot has struggled with RHH this season. He has allowed a .413 wOBA, .351 ISO, 41.9 Hard Hit percentage, and three of his four home runs to righties. This is where Trevor Story comes in. In 2024, Story posted a .349 wOBA and a .158 ISO vs. RHH. He leads the Red Sox with three long balls this season.
When digging deeper into pitch data, I see that Story has hit pitchers like Pepiot very well. He has a .385 wOBA, .243 ISO, and three HRs vs. 184 Four-Seam Fastballs similar to what Pepiot throws. He also has a .524 wOBA, .583 ISO, and two HRs vs. 32 Change-ups, identical to what Pepiot throws. These two pitches account for 73 percent of the pitches thrown to right-handed hitters from Pepiot this season.
Trevor Story (3)
Solo Home RunOpponent: Chicago White Sox
Pitcher: Bryse Wilson
Date: 4/13/25 pic.twitter.com/0e4kM8MK44— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) April 14, 2025
For those of you who are BVP truthers, Story had two at-bats against Pepiot in his career. He is one for two with a home run. The park, weather, splits, pitch data, and history line up for Trevor Story to hit a dinger.
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 home runs (+350 FanDuel)
The Polar Bear is making his second appearance in this article, and for good reason. Alonso is off to a blistering start. He has a .459 wOBA, .340 ISO, 1.1091 OPS, and a 202 wRC+ in 2025. He leads the Mets with four home runs this season.
Alonso will face Bailey Ober at Target Field. Target Field has allowed the seventh most right-handed home runs over the last three years, making it a spot we want to target. I wish the weather were a bit warmer here, but the primary focus will be on Ober and the matchup for Alonso.
Ober has started with a bit of a cold spell in 2025. He has a 2.13 HR/9, 46.3 percent FB, and an 88.9 Z-Contact percentage. In particular, right-handed hitters have hit him hard to a .374 wOBA and a .257 ISO this season.
Ober will attack RHH with three pitches: a Four-seam Fastball, Slider, and Change-up. Below is how Alonso handles pitches similar to Ober’s:
- Four-seam Fastball: .302 wOBA, .267 ISO, 4 HR, 227 pitches
- Slider: .331 wOBA, .300 ISO, 7 HR, 377 pitches
- Change-up: .535 wOBA, .471 ISO, 2 HR, 84 pitches
Those are some serious numbers. Yes, I know these are not the same from every arm, but the way I narrow it down, it is pretty close, and with all the home run troubles of Ober, plus the hot start and how he handles the mix of Ober, I like his chances of going deep tonight.
Adolis Garcia OVER 0.5 home runs (+440 FanDuel)
I love targeting lefty mashers in this ballpark. Adolis Garcia will face Yusei Kikuchi at Globe Life Field this evening. Globe Life, since 2023, has ushered in the fourth most home runs to right-handed hitters.
Yusei Kikuchi has always been susceptible to the long ball, but more so in 2025. He has allowed a 2.00 HR/9 and a 46.0 percent FB. Right-hand hitters have accounted for all four home runs he has given up this season.
Jake Burger and Garcia were the two targets of mine here, but when digging deeper, Garcia pulled away in a hurry. Since 2024, Garcia has a .308 wOBA, .203 ISO, 100 wRC+, and has hit a team-high seven HR vs. LHP.
Garcia has a great history vs. Kikuchi as well. In nine at-bats, Garcia has three hits and two home runs. He has also struck out three times. We are hoping for one good swing from Garcia tonight in Texas.
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Everything in my power is screaming at me not to write up Carlos Santana because of his BVP vs. Charlie Morton, but I must mention it. Santana also looks excellent here, and although I think Jose is the safer bet here, Santana has the history.
As is the theme in this article, Morton has struggled with the long ball in 2025. He has allowed a 2.03 HR/9 with a 35.0 percent FB and a 92.6 Z-Contact percentage. The key with Morton is the batters’ success against the curveball, as he throws it almost 40 percent of the time. Jose has a .345 wOBA, .175 ISO, and two HRs against similar pitches.
Jose has led the Guardians with 25 HRs since 2024. He is off to another blistering start with a .326 wOBA, .265 ISO, and three HRs vs. RHP this season. As mentioned earlier, he hits the curveball from Morton well, but he throws a four-seam fastball the other 40% of the time. Jose has a .428 wOBA, .306 ISO, and 11 HRs to pitches similar.
39 FOR JOSÉ RAMÍREZ!
He's ONE home run away from a 40/40 season! pic.twitter.com/nEFDiCpjoz
— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2024
Camden Yards has changed over the years, but this park is much tougher on right-handed bats than left-handed bats. It is ranked 16th in home runs surrendered to lefties since 2023. I like the chances of Jose getting into one tonight and going yard at Camden.
Brenton Doyle or Ryan McMahon OVER 0.5 home runs (+550 DraftKings)
I am saving Doyle for last because there is about a 50/50 chance he will play tonight. I would substitute Ryan McMahon if Doyle does not play, but I want Doyle here first. He leads the Rockies with three home runs vs. RHP and has a .347 wOBA and a .279 ISO in 2025.
Dodger Stadium has surrendered the most home runs to right-handed hitters since 2023. Doyle is the best right-handed bat in this lineup, and before the quad injury, he had homered in three out of his last four games.
In 2024, Landon Knack allowed a 1.83 HR/9 and a 50.0% FB. In 2025, he has a 2.08 HR/9, and although left-handed hitters have hit him better in 2025, Knack allowed a 2.2 HR/9 to right-handed hitters in 2024.
The argument for McMahon, if Doyle does not play, is that Knack has allowed a 3.4 HR/9 vs. LHH in 2025. That is a hefty number, and McMahon has been the best lefty for Colorado over the past several years. Again, I want to target Doyle, but there is a strong chance he does not play tonight, and this spot is a spot where home runs will happen.
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