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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/11/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
If you're looking for strikeout props, check back tomorrow, as I will continue that series on Saturday. But today, I am taking a headfirst dive into the pool of home run prop bets!
To be completely transparent, I bet home run props mainly for fun, as they are much tougher to predict than other player props. But they are also more rewarding, with better odds and arguably the most exciting bets to watch cash if you get to watch the slugger you wagered on go yard! Strikeout props are where my bread is buttered, but home run props are a fun dessert that should be sprinkled into your betting card sparingly and a tiny overall percentage of your daily bankroll wagered.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for the MLB games on Friday, April 11, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, April 11:
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds
- Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 home runs (+230 FanDuel)
Sometimes, you have to pick the low-hanging fruit. Yes, I did create a model to help me locate the best spots for home runs based on both the hitters and the opposing starting pitchers' batted ball metrics. Yes, that model also compares my projection to Vegas's odds to look for value, so I won't be recommending only the most popular hitters and players with the lowest odds.
However, Judge scored quite nicely in the model and is still a projected value despite having some of the lowest odds on the board. One thing I don't look at first are BvP (batter vs. pitcher) stats, but I do take a peek at them after I've made my selections.
Aaron Judge has DOMINATED his hometown team 😳
In 6 Career Games vs SF Giants:
• 1+ HR in 4/6 Games (5 Total)
• 2+ TB in 6/6 Games (27 Total)
• .522 AVG | .652 ISOCan he keep it going Friday night? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/n094ZQQ5Yt
— MJC Locks (@MJCLocks) April 11, 2025
Not only has Judge dominated the Giants in his career, but he's also teed off on Robbie Ray with three home runs in just eight at-bats. This makes sense since Judge demolishes left-handed pitching, and Ray is a fly-ball pitcher prone to giving up the long ball in his career.
When possible, I am looking at larger sample sizes for both hitters and pitchers going back several seasons. But if we look just at 2025 so far, we can see that Judge already has four home runs and an incredible 1.167 SLG against LHP this season. Meanwhile, Ray has already allowed three bombs and has not looked sharp through his first two starts despite having a solid spring training.
When you combine this elite matchup with the park factor for Yankee Stadium, which has been the second-best venue for home runs for RHH over the last three years, it's hard not to love Judge in this spot. Just don't walk him, Robbie, challenge him with some fastballs, please!
NOTE: The weather is a bit dicey here with cold, rainy conditions, but it would have to be a -10 degree snowstorm for me to count out Aaron Judge.
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 home runs (+300 DraftKings)
Since I finished the last recommendation by discussing park factors, I will start this one by saying that targeting good hitters in good ballparks for home runs is going to be a theme this season, and you should definitely factor in the ballpark (and weather) when making your home run bets this season.
The Mets make their first visit to the Athletics' temporary home park in Sacramento this weekend. The early returns have been that it is very hitter-friendly, and through the first three weeks, it ranks ninth-best for home runs. With short fences and fairly warm weather all year long, it's expected to be one of the better hitters' parks in the league this season when all is said and done.
Anyway, let's talk about Alonso, aka "the Polar Bear," and the tremendous start that he's off to this season. He leads MLB with a 21.6% BRL/PA (barrels per plate appearance) rate. He's ripping a barrel every fifth at-bat, and we know that barrels end up as home runs more often than not (anywhere between 50-60% of the time).
Pete has long been known as a "lefty-masher," and he gets a good matchup today against JP Sears, who has a career 10% barrel rate and has allowed 64 home runs since the start of the 2023 season. This park is not likely to be favorable to Sears, who has been largely a fly-ball pitcher in his career up to this point.
Pete Alonso's metrics against fastballs:
Whiff %:
2024: 17.6%
2025: 10.7%Avg. Exit Velo:
2024: 91.1 mph
2025: 99.0 mphLine-Drive %:
2024: 18.5%
2025: 25.0%Ground-Ball %:
2024: 38.1%
2025: 30.0%Hard-Hit %:
2024: 48.5%
2025: 65.0%@Metsmerized #Mets pic.twitter.com/pxiN9s0TNG— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) April 10, 2025
Sears throws his four-seamer around 40% of the time, and he better not leave it out over the plate because Alonso is demolishing fastballs this season. This may not be quite as obvious as a play as Judge, but the matchup and ballpark here for Alonso might be just as good, if not even a bit better.
Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 home runs (+400 FanDuel and DraftKings)
Continuing our theme of targeting the best parks for hitters, we head south to Tampa Bay's temporary new home—George Steinbrenner Field. This park has been described as "Yankee Stadium, but with warmer weather and a jet stream blowing out." So far, we haven't seen a ton of home runs here yet, but that may have as much to do with the quality Tampa pitching as the Rays' lack of offense.
However, the Angels did play home run derby here yesterday, smashing five long balls off Zack Littell and the bullpen, so it's likely a sign that the home run numbers are coming quickly.
The guy I want from this game is Brandon Lowe, who has 21 home runs in the last two seasons and who already has three this year in just 47 at-bats.
Brandon Lowe - Tampa Bay Rays (3)
pic.twitter.com/I6EUooo8YQ— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) April 6, 2025
Lowe will face the Braves' worst starter, Bryce Elder, who already allowed two home runs in his first start of the season. Both of those home runs came to lefties, and last year, Elder had some dramatic splits allowing a .336 AVG, .523 SLG, and .401 wOBA to southpaws. The conditions are right here for Lowe to stay hot, and we are also getting some nice odds at +400.
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Christian Encarnacion-Strand OVER 0.5 home runs (+550 DraftKings)
Finally, we arrive at the top play based on my model! CES has mashed just two taters this season but could be ready to unless another long bomb today as he faces the Pirates' fifth starter, lefty Bailey Falter.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 451 feetpic.twitter.com/lIJR0HCMfS
— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) April 6, 2025
No ballpark has been more home run-friendly over the last three years than the Great American Ballpark. While Falter's overall numbers don't look too bad on the surface, he's simply not a very good pitcher when you dig in deeper.
Last year, Falter allowed righties to smack 14 home runs and slug .422. He benefits from pitching at PNC Park, where there is one of the biggest left fields in all of baseball, but his road ERA last season was a full run higher.
CES faced Falter twice last year and smacked a three-run home run off him in one of those at-bats. We are getting great odds here on DK as FanDuel has CED listed at +370! I love the value we are getting on an up-and-coming talent in a good spot to produce today.
Triston Casas OVER 0.5 home runs (+600 DraftKings)
The final pick today is another "value pick," and I am ecstatic that we can get a power hitter like Casas at +600 on DraftKings, especially when FanDuel has him listed at +470.
It's been a slow start to the season for Casas, who has just one home run and a batting average of only .170. But that's part of the reason we are getting such good odds here, and I think it's a great day to "buy the dip" on the power-hitting lefty.
Davis Martin takes the hill for the White Sox, and he's one of the worst pitchers toeing the rubber across the league today. Martin checks in with a 5.57 SIERA through two starts with an 8.2% K% and 5.6% SwStr%. He also sports the worst CSW% on the slate at 17.9% and a terrible 93% Z-Contact%.
One thing I love to do is target high-strikeout hitters against low-strikeout pitchers. If making contact is what Casas struggles with the most, then a pitcher like Martin is the perfect matchup for him. This is something I did with Joey Gallo (the ultimate strikeout or home run guy) for years.
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