MLB DFS: Top Daily Fantasy Expert Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel (4/7/24)

Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The last MLB season was good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running early in 2024. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!

We have some really interesting matchups today. The pitching options range from largely SP2 and SP3 starters with mediocre matchups to back-of-the-rotation punt arms, which will certainly lead to some tough lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but with an 11-game slate and so much uncertainty on the mound, there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.

This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/7/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.

DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Garrett Crochet vs. Kansas City Royals ($7.1K DK, $9K FD)

Garrett Crochet should be the most popular play on this slate, and that chalk is justified. He had never started a game in his MLB career before this season, but the southpaw has sure made a strong impression. Over two starts spanning 13 total innings, Crochet has surrendered only two runs while striking out 16 batters. Of course, there is a reasonable doubt, given the small sample size. Still, Crochet's price tag has hardly budged and he stands out as the top overall pitcher.

Garrett Crochet, 99mph Fastball and 95mph Cutter, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/jLAuBNMa39

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2024

Last time out, Crochet limited the Atlanta Braves, possibly the best lineup in baseball, to only one run and three hits over seven innings pitched. Today, he'll take on a significantly more favorable matchup with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals ranked among the worst offenses in baseball in 2023, plating fewer than 4.2 runs per game with a weak 87 wRC+. Their lineup isn't substantially different this year. Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best hitters in baseball, but as a whole, the lineup remains below average.

Cristopher Sanchez vs. Washington Nationals ($7.6K DK, $8.3K FD)

None of the high-end pitching options on this slate give me much confidence, so I would champion an approach to stay cheap with both DraftKings pitching spots and spend up for hitting instead.

Cristopher Sanchez is another quality value arm to consider. Across 19 appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies last season, he produced a 3.09 xFIP and 3.74 xERA. That success included an elite 34.8% chase rate alongside other strong metrics, like a 4% walk rate and a .299 xwOBA. Sanchez's 24.2% strikeout rate is slightly above the league average, so he doesn't have the same ceiling as someone like Chris Sale -- though Sanchez is much cheaper and less volatile.

Another factor that separates Sanchez from the more expensive pitchers is a better matchup. The Washington Nationals offense was below average last season. They scored just 4.3 runs per game and had a 92 wRC+. There's some talent in their lineup with Lane Thomas and CJ Abrams, but it remains one of the league's weakest offenses.

Also Consider: Chris Sale, Max Meyer, Jack Flaherty

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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Austin Riley - 3B, ATL vs. Ryne Nelson ($5.8K DK, $4K FD)

Consider the Atlanta Braves an overarching theme of this article. They're in such a great position to succeed today, and all of them are viable roster options, so take your pick.

Austin Riley stands out to me as one of the top options. In 2023, Riley slashed .281/.345/.516 with 37 home runs and a 127 wRC+. The success is verified by some astonishing batted-ball metrics, like a .516 xSLG, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 13.9% barrel rate, and a 49.2% hard-hit rate.

Over 144 innings pitched last season, Ryne Nelson produced a horrible 5.27 xERA and 5.30 xFIP. That includes some awful underlying numbers, such as a .488 xSLG, .269 xBA, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 11.6% barrel rate, and a 42.7% hard-hit rate. Nelson gave up five runs over 2 2/3 innings during his first outing of 2024, so it seems we can expect more of the same.

Ryan Mountcastle - 1B, BAL vs. Marco Gonzales ($4.3K DK, $3.3K FD)

Ryan Mountcastle often gets overshadowed in a loaded Baltimore Orioles batting order, but nobody else hits lefties as well as he can. Mountcastle slugged .655 against southpaws last season, part of a .510 career slugging percentage that includes a 131 wRC+.

Marco Gonzales is coming off a tough season, posting a 5.27 xERA over 10 starts with the Mariners. His struggles included a .444 xSLG, .349 xwOBA, and a nonexistent 19.8% whiff rate. The sample size was somewhat limited as Gonzales pitched only 50 innings, but he owns a 4.66 xFIP for his 10-year career, alongside a .441 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters.

Lenyn Sosa - 2B/3B, CWS vs. Alec Marsh ($2.3K DK)

Lenyn Sosa was recently called up with Luis Robert Jr. hitting the injured list. Sosa has 63 games of MLB service time under his belt, and the results haven't been pretty. Still, the 24-year-old has consistently demonstrated a prolific offensive approach in the minor leagues. He produced a .990 OPS in the minors to start this season, a .820 OPS last season, and a .881 OPS in 2022. If you're looking to punt one of your infield spots, you won't find a higher upside than Sosa has to offer.

Alec Marsh had an excellent first outing of the season, but I'm not ready to forget his uninspiring performance in 2023. Over 17 appearances, Marsh produced a 5.92 xERA. Those struggles included a .486 xSLG and a .367 xwOBA. Marsh also had a problem with the long ball, surrendering 1.94 home runs per nine innings.

Note: Sosa is currently absent from the FanDuel slate.

DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks

Ronald Acuna Jr. - OF, ATL vs. Ryne Nelson ($6.5K DK, $4.3K FD)

Double-dipping into the Braves lineup here. If you have the available salary, it's a fantastic spot to spend up for Ronald Acuna Jr. today. He's the most expensive hitter on the slate, but his reputation speaks for itself. Acuna tortured opposing pitchers last season to the tune of a .660 xSLG, .357 xBA, .460 xwOBA, 15.3% barrel rate, and a 55.2% hard-hit rate. That all amounted to a 1.012 OPS with 41 home runs, 73 stolen bases, and the National League MVP. Don't overthink this one.

Spencer Steer - OF, CIN vs. Sean Manaea ($4.7K DK, $3.6K FD)

Spencer Steer probably is not the first name that comes to mind when you think about the Cincinnati Reds, though he is their best hitter now. Through the first eight games, he's slashing .448/.529/.897 with three home runs. Obviously, those numbers will regress as the season goes on, but the point stands that he is red-hot at the plate right now. Steer is also a prolific lefty-killer, slugging .564 against southpaws for his career.

Spencer Steer belts a three-run homer to give the @Reds the lead! 😮 pic.twitter.com/JNEIfp1drd

— MLB (@MLB) April 6, 2024

Sean Manaea is looking to build off the momentum from his first outing of the season, but it was against the Detroit Tigers, and I'm not ready to accept that one performance as his new normal. Manaea's nine-year MLB tenure has taught us that he is an average pitcher at best and mediocre at other times. In particular, right-handed hitters have always given him trouble. Righties slugged .446 against Manaea a year ago and .494 the season before that, part of a .437 career mark.

Jack Suwinski- OF, PIT vs. Dean Kremer ($3.7K DK, $2.8K FD)

Jack Suwinski is the prototypical three-true-outcome hitter. Last season, he smacked 26 home runs alongside a 14% walk rate and a 32.2% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, many of his at-bats end without him putting the ball in play, but when Suwinski does make contact, the results are fantastic. Suwinski generated a .461 xSLG, 15.7% barrel rate, and a 90.5 mph average exit velocity. He's a home run threat every time he steps up to the plate.

Fortunately, Dean Kremer only struck out 21.4% of batters in 2023, alongside a similarly below-average 24% whiff rate. Kremer also produced a low 7.5% walk rate. Altogether, this makes him a contact pitcher, which is ideal for Suwinski. Kremer additionally struggled with left-handed hitters, surrendering a .467 slugging percentage, part of a .431 career mark.

DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks

1. Atlanta Braves vs. Ryne Nelson

• Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies

2. Baltimore Orioles vs. Marco Gonzales

• Favorite Plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson