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The MLB season continues to move forward and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, September 3rd presents a slate of 8 games. A couple of the games we can look to take advantage of include the Cubs at Pirates and Nationals at Phillies.
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Cubs @ Pirates: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - JT Brubaker more than 3.5 strikeouts and Alec Mills more than 3.5 strikeouts
Brubaker appears to have taken over in the Pirates' rotation as he was able to throw over 80 pitches en route to a six strikeout performance across five innings in his last start. He will be going up against a Cubs squad that is striking out at a rate of 24.5% vs. right-handers in the previous two weeks, which ranks 13th worst in baseball. Brubaker has the stuff to rack up four strikeouts and he also managed to achieve three strikeouts in three innings vs. the Cubs back on August 1st.
Alec Mills has gone over this total in three of his first six starts and has a great opportunity to do it again vs. the Pirates. The Pirates currently rank third-worst in the league in terms of K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks with a rate of 27.1%. They are also only posting a 65 wRC+ mark over that same span, which ranks second-worst in baseball. This should allow Mills to go deeper into the game and achieve the total.
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More or Less Contest - Ian Happ more than 1.5 hits/walks
Ian Happ more than 1.5 hits/walks - Happ has been tremendous this season as he is currently slashing .308/.420/.642. He has been solid from both sides of the plate and currently has 27 hits in 88 AB vs. right-handed pitching, which bodes well for him in this matchup. The Pirates also have a pen that ranks ninth-worst in the league with a 1.45 WHIP. Add in the fact that Happ has reached this total in five of his last seven games as well as each of the last four and you have a solid chance for him to hit the over.
Nationals @ Phillies: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Anibal Sanchez less than 3.5 strikeouts and Zach Eflin more than 3.5 strikeouts
Anibal Sanchez has been awful to start the season as noted by his 6.90 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. He also has just 23 K across his first 30 IP. While he has reached this total in four of six starts this season, he will be facing a Phillies team that is only striking out 21.7% vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks seventh in baseball. They are also walking at a clip of 10.4% vs. righties over that same span, which could get Sanchez into trouble as he is currently allowing nearly three BB/9.
Zach Eflin has been solid to begin the season as he has posted 37 K across his first 27 IP. While he will be facing a Nationals team that has only struck out 19.8% of the time vs. righties in the last two weeks, he should be able to go deep enough to reach this total. He has gone over the total in every single start this season as well. If the Nationals trot out a right-handed heavy lineup, Eflin should be in even better shape as he has struck out 23 of the 61 righties he has faced.
More or Less Contest - Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks
Juan Soto more than 1.5 hits/walks - While Eflin has been very solid to begin 2020, left-handed hitting has been somewhat of an issue as he has allowed a .372 BAA. Soto is hitting .338 with a .456 OBP vs right-handed pitching the season and he has also gone over this total in five of his previous 10 games. Add in the fact that the Phillies have one of the worst pens in baseball, and the over looks like a solid play here.
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