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We have finally reached the start of the 2020 MLB Season! Just sit and let that sink in for a moment, folks. After four long months of waiting, we can finally start setting our lineups and get into the groove of fantasy baseball. Of course, along with the start of the 2020 season, comes the start of MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, July 30th presents a slate of 10 games for us to choose from. Some games we can try to take advantage of include the Yankees at Orioles and Indians at Twins.
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Yankees @ Orioles More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - J.A. Happ less than 4.5 strikeouts and John Means less than 3.5 strikeouts
These totals are a little lower than expected, but the way pitching is right now in the early going, they seem to make sense. Happ threw 22.1 innings vs. the Orioles in 2019 and struck out 2o batters. This occurred over the course of five starts and he only reached the 4.5 threshold in two of those starts. The Orioles projected starters have also battered Happ to the tune of a .311/.357/.585 slash line, so it is quite feasible that he does not make it very deep in this game. Means is in a tough spot as a lefty vs. the Yankees. The Yankees slashed .273/.346/.506 vs left-handed pitching in 2019 and had a strikeout rate at 25%. Means has faced these Yankees hitters across 48 PA and does have 12 strikeouts in those, but it is important to note that he is making his first start after coming off the IL due to left shoulder fatigue. He likely has a short leash tonight.
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More or Less Contest - Giancarlo Stanton more than 1.5 hits/walks and Hanser Alberto more than 1.5 total bases
Giancarlo Stanton more than 1.5 hits/walks - This simply comes down to Stanton's ability to mash left-handed pitchers. In 2017, Stanton put up a .474 wOBA vs. lefties and followed that up by posting a .425 wOBA in 2018. Last season was pretty much a wash as he only had 14 AB vs. lefties, but still posted a .412 wOBA. The Orioles pen behind Means is also not good. So far in 2020, the Orioles rank third-worst in baseball with a pen ERA of 7.50 and a league-worst 2.08 WHIP.
Hanser Alberto more than 1.5 total bases - I frequently hate playing the total base game on MKF, but Alberto is in a good spot tonight vs. Happ. Alberto is solid vs. lefties as he posted a .419 wOBA, hit for an AVG of .398, posted an OPS of .948, and hit five of his 12 HR off them in 2019. He is also a career 6/13 with one HR, two doubles, and a 1.308 OPS off Happ. He could likely face some lefties out of the Yankee pen as well, albeit they are stiffer competition than Happ.
Indians @ Twins More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Shane Bieber more than 5.5 strikeouts and Jose Berrios less than 5.5 strikeouts
Bieber is fresh off a 15 strikeout performance against the Royals and could certainly carry that momentum over to this game. The Twins struck out 33 times across 28 innings vs. Bieber in 2019, but only had a total strikeout rate of 23.4% vs. righties. I make this point because the Twins were not and still are not a high strikeout team vs. righties, but Bieber managed to mow them down a season ago. Granted, the offense is improved since 2019, but Bieber's strikeout upside is way too high to be betting an under on a 5.5 total. The Tribe has not faired too well vs. righties to start the 2020 campaign as they have hit just .234 and have a strikeout rate of 27%, but Berrios looked absolutely awful in his debut vs. the White Sox. Berrios is not an elite strikeout pitcher as evidenced by his 195 strikeouts across 200.1 innings pitched in 2019. He faced the Indians across 24.2 innings and struck out 26 in 2019, but 10 of those strikeouts came against an Indians' Opening Day lineup that featured Tyler Naquin in the three-hole and guys like Brad Miller and Eric Stamets in the lineup. The current roster has a total of 18 strikeouts across 118 PA, which is roughly a 15% strikeout rate. The total is going to be close, as they often are, but I am taking the under here.
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