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We have finally reached the start of the 2020 MLB Season! Just sit and let that sink in for a moment, folks. After four long months of waiting, we can finally start setting our lineups and get into the groove of fantasy baseball. Of course, along with the start of the 2020 season, comes the start of MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, July 23rd presents a small slate of two games for us to try and take advantage of. These two games include the Yankees at Nationals and Giants at Dodgers. Let's take a look at some of the prop bets they offer.
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Yankees @ Nationals: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Max Scherzer over 8.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole over 7.5 strikeouts.
I am going out on a bit a limb here simply because we do not know how many innings each of these guys will go. One thing that cannot be denied is their ability to mow down batters at a ridiculously high clip. In 2019, Scherzer had a strikeout rate of 35.1% and Cole finished with a rate of 39.9%, which ranked them in the top five percent and one percent (#1) overall. In any other season on any other day, these numbers would be two-to-three strikeouts higher.
The Yankees struck out at a rate of 23% vs. right-handed pitching in 2019, which ranked them 15th in the league. The Nationals, on the other hand, were solid vs. righties as they ranked fifth-best in the league with a 21% strikeout rate. This rate was much higher vs. Cole in the World Series, however, as he managed to put up a 26.7% strikeout rate. Cole also only failed to reach this total nine times out of 39 combined regular season and postseason starts in 2019.
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More or Less Contest - Juan Soto less than 1.5hits/walks, Aaron Judge less than 1.5 hits/walks.
Juan Soto less than 1.5 hits/walks: It is no secret that Soto is a superb hitter, perhaps one of the best in the game, but the matchup vs. Cole and the vaunted Yankee pen could prove to be difficult this early in the season. Cole struck out 43.6% of the left-handed hitters he faced in 2019. He also only allowed a .175 BAA vs left-handed hitters, which was better than his .198 vs. righties. Soto put up a 20% strikeout rate vs. rightieS, so Cole could use this to his advantage. Add in the fact that Soto had an OPS that was 150 points lower vs. lefties, and you should expect him to see a lefty or two out of the Yankee pen.--Soto tested positive for Covid-19 and is out for tonight's contest
Aaron Judge less than 1.5 hits/walks: This is all about Max Scherzer. He dominated right-handed-hitting to the tune of a 2.13 ERA and .80 WHIP in 2019. In 2019, he also had a 38.6% strikeout rate and .193 BAA vs. righties. This is not an anomaly as he has put up a strikeout rate of 40% and a BAA of .170 vs. right-handed hitters since 2017. He is absolutely filthy. In 2019, Judge had a -33% OPS vs right-handed pitchers as opposed to left-handed pitchers and has a -4% OPS vs. righties since 2017. He also had a 34.8% strikeout rate vs. righties in 2019, which Scherzer will certainly take advantage of. Judge is a solid hitter, but asking him to come up with a combination of two hits and walks might be a tall task in this game.
Giants @ Dodgers: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Clayton Kershaw under 5.5 strikeouts and Johnny Cueto under 3.5 strikeouts.
Pitching is going to sort of be a wait-and-see game in the early going. How many innings will managers let their starters go the first few times through the rotation is a serious question that will need to be monitored. That being said, even if Kershaw and Cueto go six innings, I still like the under for each in this game.
Kershaw only struck out 17 Giants across 19 innings pitched in 2019. The Giants also had a strikeout rate that was middle of the road vs. left-handed pitching as they ranked 15th in the league with a rate of 23%. Add in the fact that there will now be a DH in place of the pitcher position and I like the under even more. Cueto will be facing a very potent offense in the Los Angeles Dodgers and could struggle mightily as he did on September 27, 2019, when he gave up five earned runs across just two innings while striking out two vs. these same Dodgers sans Mookie Betts.
The Dodgers also hit right-handed pitching to the tune of ranking second in the league in wRC+ in 2019. They also only struck out at a clip of 21% vs. right-handed pitching, which was good enough for fourth in the league in 2019. Overall, it just seems like a bad spot for Cueto and he should go under the total. Keep an eye on both of these totals as they have fluctuated a bit over the past couple of days.
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
More or Less Contest - Mookie Betts more than 1.5hits/walks and Max Muncy more than 1.5 hits/walks.
Mookie Betts more than 1.5 hits/walks: Betts makes his debut as a Dodger on Thursday night and could find some success vs. Cueto and the Giants. Betts is solid vs. both lefties and righties as noted by his respective .311 and .295 batting averages since 2017. He also produced a 142 wRC+ and 13.3% walk rate vs. right-handers alone in 2019. As for his history vs. Cueto, Betts has faced him four times and is 3/4 with a double. He should certainly be able to form some combination of hits and walks to reach base twice in this game.
Max Muncy more than 1.5 total bases: Muncy had a .509 SLG and 134 wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2019. He was able to do this by smacking 16 doubles and 24 HR. He is a guy that is more than capable of reaching this total with one swing of the bat and that is why I like him in this spot. Cueto is also a guy that has struggled to put away lefties over the previous three seasons. This is noted by his .274 BAA and 50 XBH allowed across 474 batters faced since 2017.
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